Kess

$MSFT

@InvestingAddict Time in the market > Timing the market

@ItsJust_Kess Long term investing in the S&P forever

Always has Always will

The Japanese 10 Year Yield is one of the more under appreciated macro trackers in the market. Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt (if you kinda remember the carry trade drama in 2024, it had a lot to do with this dynamic). This is a super important factor because as the JP10Y rises, “in house” investments become more attractive than the foreign counterparts (US debt). Essentially this is putting upward pressure on US bond yields - ergo higher US borrowing cost. Their 10 year yield has reached 28-year highs. When it rises, it doesn’t just affect Japanese markets - it tightens global financial conditions, pressures US Treasury yields upward, and creates the latent risk of a disorderly unwind that hits equities and risk assets hard. It’s a slow-moving but potentially explosive macro variable that most retail investors completely ignore.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Now, why monitoring the value of $USDJPY is a key where is because: Rising JP10Y yields + strengthening yen = maximum pain for carry trades. Capital floods back to Japan, US yields rise (from selling), equities sell off. I personally think it’s worth monitoring as Japan has recently entered a tightening economic period raising policy rates from near 0% to 0.75% (a 30 year high) - and it’s expected this rate to tighten to 1.5% by the end of this year. There’s a fascinating trickle down play at work here that cannot be ignored.

It’s important to recognize external factors that have internal relations with equities. You can only look at a $SPY chart and only get so much information. Being able to expand how you monitor how the market is structured with multiple resources is how you enhance your alpha.

Uhhhh 5% wen?

@NorthcalACC Never believe in Buffalo in OT

@ItsJust_Kess I lost my bet because I believed in you

Being from Buffalo is cool - you get a weird perspective on life that the worst thing ever imaginable in the coolest scenario is entirely possible AND is likely going to happen. So you kinda just accept it and move on lol #LetsGoBuffalo #BillsMafia

Not a single “bear flag” or “bull flag” posted today or strategy update showing open positions… It’s confirmed, he sold his account 🥀

Peak-a-boo

6 week update on the US10Y chart - 4.62% currently. Fancy that...

Fixed it #LetsGoBuffalo

For those who read memes and not charts.

@brandonrags1 @NorthcalACC how did you follow me on TradingView

@ItsJust_Kess See?! I go to search under the community tab and it doesn’t let me search people

I recommend following my TradingView down the road...

@brandonrags1 Hmmm i actually have no idea how that works now that you bring that up lol

@ItsJust_Kess If only I knew where to search for an author since I don’t see that option under community

@brandonrags1 I might pivot to stock chart posting on there and here but on there I can just dump charts easier

@ItsJust_Kess Anymore description?!

@ItsJust_Kess Did it. Can I get a cookie now 😅

Drink up! Or don’t.

@LearningAlways_ That setup has just looked way too strong to ignore!

@ItsJust_Kess The 10Y might have seen this post ....

I’ve now entered “a bit concerned” mode for where $SPY is trading at currently and am in my “this can’t be sustainable much longer” era.