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I have made a substantial number of investments where I have earned a many-fold multiple of capital — on more than a handful of occasions, 50, 100 or even 1,500 times multiple of invested capital. I have found these opportunities because of a willingness to consider the improbable as possible. The fact that it is uncommon to do so increases the rewards for those who do.
In my experience, the vast majority of people look at the world from the perspective of what is most probable, and assume that events will unfold in that manner.
I always consider the possibility and the probability that the improbable occurs. I do this to avoid risk and to find opportunities. On avoiding risk, I don’t take small chances that could have catastrophic outcomes.
This perspective also makes me open to non-mainstream, non-consensus views on world events.
On @X, I have periodically raised the possibility of an improbable explanation for a specific event or situation. When I have done so, people assume that I have lost it, or they call me a conspiracy theorist or worse.
I remind you that many quickly dismissed and scorned conspiracy theories have turned out to be true. Often times, calls that someone is a conspiracy theorist are simply attempts to discredit or cancel someone who is getting uncomfortably close to the truth.
I have an open mind to unexpected and improbable outcomes, both good and bad. That’s made me a better investor and given me greater insight into the world.
My willingness to consider the improbable increases, the greater the reward that comes from the low probability outcome being true. The rewards could be financial. They could make one healthier or they could explain some previous unexplained event, among other benefits. Further investigation into the improbable is warranted, in my view, if the rewards are high enough.
I encourage you to consider and analyze the improbable. This used to be called having an open mind, until that became uncommon.
Bill Ackman@BillAckman
What are the chances @CNN was tipped off to stream the Butler rally? Why isn’t this worthy of an investigation? It shouldn’t be too hard to figure out who orders the coverage and why.
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