John Stepek

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John Stepek

John Stepek

@John_Stepek

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London, England Katılım Temmuz 2010
6.8K Takip Edilen22.4K Takipçiler
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
I have a new rival in the newsletter business. @MerrynSW is launching her own, with the first issue out tomorrow. You should all sign up for it right now as it will definitely be the second-best financial newsletter in the world bloomberg.com/account/newsle…
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Jonathan 🇬🇧
Jonathan 🇬🇧@jgj1972·
@MerrynSW @John_Stepek Look at the Will smith video from a few years ago to today. Hallucinations will go the same way. AGI is here. LLM usage will explode and we will need more and more compute/DCs/power to keep up and dare i say even compute. The next GE is absolutely critical to secure this.
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Merryn Somerset Webb
Merryn Somerset Webb@MerrynSW·
What if the whole LLM thing is a false start? If the flaws are inherent systemic problems - if the compounding of hallucinations/errors can't be sorted out? If the capex build out is one of the biggest misallocations of capital ever? Then what? bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
Is AI barking up the wrong tree?
Merryn Somerset Webb@MerrynSW

My piece on LLMs today less of a minority opinion than you might think. Here's Joachim Klements on the same. "If these three results (the prevalence of hallucinations, the inability to remove the neurons that create them and free replication of basic models without the need to pay for more complex models) are true, then OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and others are in serious trouble. Large-scale LLMs will not be able to replace mission-critical software because of the inherent hallucination problem, which does not go away due to the very structure of the models. At the same time, for everyday use cases where they are good enough, there are free models that already can do what the large models do, and every business can simply use these without having to pay OpenAI or any other money. So, where is the business model for these genAI companies?"

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Merryn Somerset Webb
Merryn Somerset Webb@MerrynSW·
My piece on LLMs today less of a minority opinion than you might think. Here's Joachim Klements on the same. "If these three results (the prevalence of hallucinations, the inability to remove the neurons that create them and free replication of basic models without the need to pay for more complex models) are true, then OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and others are in serious trouble. Large-scale LLMs will not be able to replace mission-critical software because of the inherent hallucination problem, which does not go away due to the very structure of the models. At the same time, for everyday use cases where they are good enough, there are free models that already can do what the large models do, and every business can simply use these without having to pay OpenAI or any other money. So, where is the business model for these genAI companies?"
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Claire Fox
Claire Fox@Fox_Claire·
What Lewis describes here will be familiar to many of us on the receiving end of 'progressive' intolerance/ hate. When it happens to you at first, it's a shock. Ironically however, when it happens to others, it's often liberal journalists who assume there must be some truth in such progressive conspiratorial explanations. Why else would anyone 'decent' challenge orthodox left-thinking, whether about trans ideology or the EU or migration? Not sure that 'online life' is the culprit. Goes much deeper. But certainly, such thoughtless, shallow, echo-chamber tribalism is amplified on here. And it's nasty as hell.
The News Agents@TheNewsAgents

"They consider themselves educated progressives, they call MAGA & Reform radicalised - I think online life does that to people of all stripes" @lewis_goodall responds after receiving 'sh*t' from online Starmer supporters for his Ch4 doc ‘Keir Starmer: Where Did It All Go Wrong?’

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Newsdoc
Newsdoc@newsdoc999·
@John_Stepek @MerrynSW Wasn’t there a study that said the best investors were dead? I.e. didn’t change anything!
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
In this week's personal finance edition of the podcast, @MerrynSW and I dig into 40 years of data to answer a reader question - is passive or active better? It may not surprise you to hear that the answer is: it's complicated podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/act…
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Robin Wigglesworth
Robin Wigglesworth@RobinWigg·
Please prepare yourself for months of shameless self-promotion, mute me on socials, feel free to avoid me in public etc, because my next book — A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World — is now officially available for pre-orders.
Robin Wigglesworth tweet media
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
@w_ynd Oh I've had a go at plenty of other people over energy idiocy recently so they shouldn't feel specifically picked on
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W_ynd
W_ynd@w_ynd·
@John_Stepek Unionism has squandered literal trillions in oil wealth. It’s maybe not the strongest argument to have a go at the party that has practically zero control over oil and gas. That being said, it’s a welcome move to see changes in party line.
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
@ukhpinfo @darioperkins I suspect if you shunt it around to be post-tax and accounting for benefits the gap narrows but the same basic point is bound to be true - the poorer you are, the more of your income goes on "needs" rather than "wants"
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Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins@darioperkins·
poor hit hardest
Dario Perkins tweet media
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
@NigelAWatson @MerrynSW Again I don't disagree, the difficulty is that you find out if your plumber was bad quickly, whereas in your portfolio, it can take a while longer and do more damage. This is why you always want to be an informed consumer so you can sense-check it yourself
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Nigel Watson
Nigel Watson@NigelAWatson·
@John_Stepek @MerrynSW Taking your “plumber analogy”… I NEVER discuss price with anyone when buying something… PRICE - SERVICE - QUALITY You get “one & a half” of those…I’ll always pick quality 1st…looking back on something you buy 5 yrs later…price seldom seems important - quality ALWAYS does
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John Stepek
John Stepek@John_Stepek·
@NigelAWatson @MerrynSW I don't disagree, the real issue is finding a decent advisor, much in the same way as finding a good plumber is much better than doing it yourself, but a bad plumber can leave you with a costly mess
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WhatNow
WhatNow@SonnerSounds·
@John_Stepek @MerrynSW I have a view that, with valuations as they are, especially in the US, the decade of easy 10% + returns from a global tracker may be over.
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Nigel Watson
Nigel Watson@NigelAWatson·
@John_Stepek @MerrynSW Really good listen…I retired a year ago aged 59, my wife drops to 50% work this year… The REAL benefit of “advice” is in the life choices we’ve made since 25 (when we got married)…with the same advisor… No way we’d have navigated this without him… 1/n
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Keşfet

@jgj1972 @MerrynSW @barneymcg999 @Pecunious365 @Fox_Claire @newsdoc999 @Scouting4Gold @VintageMrHobbes