DeCarleyTrading.com

20 years ago today, I worked my first shift as a commodity broker. It was 12 hours of "smiling and dialing". It was not glamorous and it definitely wasn't what I had envisioned for myself right out of college armed with two degrees with a Magna Cum Laude asterisk. It was hard; I was hung up on, yelled at, and I called people who had died but weren't removed from call registers. I learned to work smarter by generating my own prospective client leads. Eventually, I didn't have to make outgoing calls, people called me instead. I worked 12 hours per day and a few more on Saturday and Sunday for well over a decade without knowing if it would pay off. Don't be afraid to dream big and take risks. Life is for living. 🙂🥹🙂🥹🙂🥹🙂🥹

No Father’s Day is complete without this video.

Top Iranian oil terminal of Kharg Island continues to load tankers (although waiting - empty - tankers appear to have moved away). Oil loading continues as usual at 🇸🇦🇰🇼🇮🇶🇦🇪🇶🇦 terminals. Strait of Hormuz traffic appears normal. (per @CopernicusEU Sentinel 2 today) #Iran #OOTT

Sometimes the best move is the least popular move. 🤷‍♀️

Attacks on oil & gas facilities supplying domestic markets differ from attacks on oil fields & export terminals supplying global markets. President Trump warned Israel against striking Iranian oil fields & export terminals. Israel may attack refineries, fuel depots, gas processing/distribution centers, etc. These attacks have no impact on global oil prices.

Israel has attacked the Iranian **domestic** energy industry (one gas processing plant and one gasoline depot). Neither impact **exports**. But the risk is significant: the moment one side starts blowing up energy assets, the other can think about doing the same | #Iran #OOTT

I am lazy-sharing. I haven't verified/confirmed data/sources but this is roughly my take as well. Iran is a fringe producer under sanctions. Last week's rally probably already priced in the worst-case supply disruption scenario except for the outlier event of a Hormuz shutdown.

Here is a cleaner video of Caitlin going bananas. Just insane.

This.

Thank you!!! 😃😃 amazon.com/gp/product/194…

Commodity trading is hard. I've written several books aimed at sharing the tough lessons I've learned over the years with readers, in the hope that they will avoid making the same mistakes. I posted a crude oil option trade on X that has sparked some discussion. If you want to know more about option trading, check out Trading Commodity Options with Creativity (cheapest on Amazon).

Markets rarely get as offside as the cattle market is. When this happens, it is guaranteed that someone (or many) are swimming naked. I suspect it might be US taxpayers! There is a Federal program that subsidizes price risk protection for cattle producers. This is awesome for ranchers, but has likely contributed to wildly high (and artificial) pricing. The US government is essentially selling put options to ranchers, which allows them to operate without too much concern over price declines. This is good for the ag industry, but I have to wonder if the government has a staff of hedgers that can handle what might be next. Just like a hurricane can nearly wipe out insurance companies, a repeat of 2014 will leave someone holding the bag. 🤪🍿

Not coincidentally, I wrote an entire book about this. amazon.com/gp/product/194…

We sent this to our clients this morning. High volatility has created an opportunity for option traders to use the market's money to buy put spreads. Some clients received a credit of over $400 to put this on. The catch is that if September crude oil rallies above $85.00, it is akin to being short a futures contract with unlimited risk. We plan to hedge with long micro futures if needed. If you don't understand the risk, don't try this without help from a professional. Otherwise, happy paper trading :)

She has been working on her summer body and it shows. 😎😃😃

If you want to stay informed about what's happening in the country, you'll find it on TikTok. The app reveals the ugly underbelly of our society if you look in the right place. The finance side of Tok is frightening. I think we are underestimating the vast number of financially illiterate consumers. Many don't understand what a credit card is and how to use it (I've run into more than one instance of a person that thinks the "credit" in "credit" card is a free money credit rather than debt), why it might be a bad idea to finance a luxury vehicle for 7 years with the payment ranging from $ 1,500 to $ 2,000, or purchase expensive concert tickets or sneakers with an installment plan. I don't know how or when this comes back to haunt us, but the consumer has kept the ball rolling. Can they continue?

I opened up TikTok and the first video was a couple who took a payday loan to buy a dog. 🙄😬🙃🫠

Five, or even ten, years ago, if you had asked someone if they would accept 4.5% annually relatively risk-free (if held to expiration) for the next decade or longer, the response would have likely been skepticism. Such a deal would have sounded too good to be true. The knee-jerk rebuttal would have been: “Is this a Ponzi scheme?” Ten years ago, and even five years ago at specific points, the focus was on the return of capital, rather than the return on capital. Accepting a nearly zero return for the safety of US Treasuries was not only an acceptable “investment,” it was a popular and preferred investment! With the benefit of hindsight, we know following the mantra would have been a bad life decision. I spoke about this on the @CowGuyClose with @ScottTheCowGuy this week. Click here to view the clip -cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/Cwc8i…