Dave Kellogg

Full company table by total value lost

Tiger Global just valued a bagel shop at $300 million. And the math actually makes sense if you stare at it long enough. PopUp Bagels started in 2020 out of a kitchen in Westport, Connecticut. Adam Goldberg was baking bagels for neighbors during the pandemic. Five years later, Tiger Global closed a deal in late March that values the company at 5x what it was worth five months ago. The unit economics are what caught Tiger's attention. Average transaction over $24. Five bagel varieties. Three schmears. 55 total SKUs while competitors run 200-300. Stores are 1,000-1,200 square feet. Each location hires 10-15 employees instead of the 50-60 a typical QSR needs. No ice machines. No soda fountains. No fryers. They don't sell individual bagels. You buy packs of three, six, or twelve. You grip, rip, and dip. That constraint does two things simultaneously: it raises average order value above the threshold where a small-format store prints money, and it creates a ritual that photographs well. Every customer becomes a content creator. The franchise math: $330K-$810K to open, $35K franchise fee, 6% royalty. They've signed 300 franchise units with fewer than 15 operators. That's roughly 20 stores per operator. Experienced multi-unit franchisees running large territories, not first-timers buying a single shop. About 30 locations open now, targeting 100 by end of 2027. Celebrity investors include Paul Rudd, JJ Watt, Michael Phelps, Michael Strahan. Stripes bought a majority stake in 2023 and brought in a real CEO, Tory Bartlett, in late 2024. Adam Sandler has a dedicated phone at one of the New York shops to call in orders. They literally call it "the Sandler Phone." Here's what Tiger Global sees. The same firm that backed Meta, invested in OpenAI and Waymo, has been exiting 85+ companies from its most recent fund to concentrate on fewer, higher-conviction bets. They looked at a bagel company and decided it belonged in that concentrated portfolio. The $300 million number only works if you believe 300 franchise locations actually open and hit the projected unit economics. At an estimated $6M revenue per location and 18% margins, 100 operating stores would generate roughly $108M in systemwide profit. At 300, you're approaching the kind of numbers that make $300M look cheap. The real question is whether the hype survives national scale. PopUp Bagels built its brand on scarcity, long lines, and social media energy. Every franchise system in history has faced the tension between exclusivity and expansion. Levain Bakery, funded by the same firm Stripes, is the closest comparable, and it stayed small. Tiger's betting the ritual travels. That the 1,100 square foot format, the five-SKU simplicity, and the $24 average ticket create something that works in Tampa the same way it works in Greenwich Village. If they're right, this is the most capital-efficient restaurant concept of the decade. If they're wrong, it's a $300 million lesson in the difference between a brand and a business.

I am Catholic. This👇is not my Pope.