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Killa
4.5K posts
Killa
@KillaXBT
Quantitative trader, 7 years. NFA. For educational purposes only. Not directed to AUS/EU/UK audiences.
KillaLabs - (Closed) Katılım Eylül 2024
132 Takip Edilen201.5K Takipçiler
Not the prettiest candle on $BTC.
Things are starting to get interesting now.
Unable to flip 79.3K = 76.3K.
Killa@KillaXBT
The reason $BTC keeps bouncing is because we’re currently testing a significant level (PWO). If we lose the 78.6K region, the monthly open would likely come into play fairly quickly. Worth watching this area closely for confirmation of direction short term.
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$BTC
The streak lives, for now. We’re currently at my entry.
If you happened to follow me, this is your opportunity to fully exit and either look for a higher re-entry or abandon the bear market thesis altogether.
As for me, I’ll be holding the position regardless as its only 50% size.
Let the games begin. 🎲
Killa@KillaXBT
It does look like the winning streak for swing shorts may be coming to an end. It was a solid run. De-risking 50% on the retest below 80K $BTC turned out to be a good call. Invalidation remains the same, a 1D closure 84K. You can definitely short my stop loss, it’ll probably mark the local top given they are paying attention to everything I do.
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$BTC
Patience. Hopefully we do not front run my POI. Yes, I am still in the swing short.
Killa@KillaXBT
Good things come to those who wait... $BTC
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$BTC
The fact that this isn’t 100% is insane.
I’m very confident we’ll see sub-$74K well before we ever trend above 100K.
Range. Bound. Capitulation.
Kalshi Crypto@Kalshi_Crypto
BREAKING: 85% chance Bitcoin hits $75,000 before $100,000
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There is your clarity act for you... $BTC
Did say it was priced in.
Killa@KillaXBT
The Clarity Act news has been released while $BTC is testing weekly and monthly resistance. We live in a simulation. 🤣 Major news always lines up with local tops or bottoms. You should already know by now, it's priced in.
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The truth is,
People want to believe it’s over before it actually is.
After being down for so long, most naturally gravitate toward whatever short term price action is showing, usually optimism after the first strong bounce.
The reality is that market structure almost encourages this behavior. The more participants believe the bear market is over, the more liquidity enters the market.
Historically, markets spend months ranging before true expansion phases begin. This cycle will likely be no different. Ranges allow larger players to scale large positions and build leverage before the next major move.
What we don’t see are instant recoveries.
People want to make back everything in one trade, but markets rarely work that way.
The market chops, ranges, and exhausts participants long before the next real expansion begins.
Most get shaken out emotionally or financially before the larger move finally arrives.
Range. Capitulation. $BTC
Killa@KillaXBT
Do people really think we’re going to V-shape recover out of a bear market without any prolonged chop or range bound price action? Just look at how parabolic the S&P 500 has become. Do you seriously think $BTC is going to keep outperforming once that momentum finally stops? I don’t think so.
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$BTC
The order book depth has been significantly red around this price region, which isn’t particularly bullish.
That’s why it’s perfectly reasonable to remain cautious near the highs.
The only real time to bid is when delta flips strongly positive and prints green which would signal accumulation.
Until that happens... risky being a buyer up here. Mainly leverage driven hunts.
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Do people really think we’re going to V-shape recover out of a bear market without any prolonged chop or range bound price action?
Just look at how parabolic the S&P 500 has become.
Do you seriously think $BTC is going to keep outperforming once that momentum finally stops?
I don’t think so.
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$BTC
It indeed looks like we’re going for another sweep of the PWH at 83K.
Would be very brutal if that plays out.
Because a retrace back below the high would be deviation into acceptance, and that’s likely where we get the push down toward the 0.5 of the range.
Killa@KillaXBT
If you are confused what I am searching for... $BTC
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We respected the previous weekly open as expected.
Now things are getting interesting.
Either we sweep the previous weekly high around 82.2K, or we form a lower high and see $BTC push back below 80K.
At the moment, the structure looks very liquidity driven and “hunty,” which is expected if we are close to forming a local top.
Killa@KillaXBT
Searching for something like this on the LTF for $BTC.
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$BTC
Not much to update on the swing short position so far.
BTC is still hovering with nothing really happening at the moment.
I’ve already derisked 50% of the position below 80K, so risk is managed if I happen to be wrong.
For now, I still believe the 74–76K region is likely to get tested.
Killa@KillaXBT
It does look like the winning streak for swing shorts may be coming to an end. It was a solid run. De-risking 50% on the retest below 80K $BTC turned out to be a good call. Invalidation remains the same, a 1D closure 84K. You can definitely short my stop loss, it’ll probably mark the local top given they are paying attention to everything I do.
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If you are confused what I am searching for... $BTC
Killa@KillaXBT
Sometimes, its a good idea to flip $BTC inverted. Different perception. Do you see any major players building long positions here, or do you think they’re more likely to derisk? I would rather go with the second option.
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$BTC
Well, close enough.
Was aiming for a sweep below the previous weekly open.
Hold the 78.6K region & we can push to the 80s again.
I am still searching for 74-76K on the HTF.
Killa@KillaXBT
Searching for something like this on the LTF for $BTC.
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@thebearjesus What on earth are you on about?
I didn’t post both sides. Go through every single tweet of mine and you won’t find one where I was bullish above 100K because I wasn’t. Just another jealous fellow making stuff up here. Blocked.
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At 112K, I projected that $BTC would trend down to 37K.
After updating my analysis, and with several months potentially still left in this broader bear phase, I now see the 50–60K range as a great area to scale in.
Whether we get another sweep below 60K remains to be seen. If it happens, I’ll take advantage of it; if not, I’ll simply wait for a clear structural shift and flip long accordingly rather than anchoring to a single target.
The broader cycle structure still leans toward a potential move below 60K, but ultimately we’ll see whether history repeats or this cycle deviates.
Until then... we observe.
Kalshi Crypto@Kalshi_Crypto
BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will crash to $60,000 this year
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