Eric Maina

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Eric Maina

Eric Maina

@kmainaeric

Finance | Markets | F1

Katılım Nisan 2021
101 Takip Edilen301 Takipçiler
Eric Maina retweetledi
Franklyn Wang
Franklyn Wang@frank_liquid·
Meta is one third of Anthropic revenue? 60T tokens / mo = $900M / mo = $10B ARR for Anthropic 🤯? This is also the largest enterprise contract in history.
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Prepared Remarks
Prepared Remarks@P_Remarks·
Altman gonna make sure Husk ends up in a ditch somewhere because of these TikToks
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Matthew Harbaugh
Matthew Harbaugh@themattharbaugh·
Michael Mauboussin on how the best investors behave
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billy walsh
billy walsh@reaIityobserver·
Never seen anything like this in all my 5 days of trading oil.
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Mwango Capital
Mwango Capital@MwangoCapital·
We asked the BAT management at the analyst call yesterday on the issue of them paying dividends that exceeded earnings, and this was their response: —Dividends are being funded from reserves, with management saying the payout above earnings is intentional and supported by strong accumulated cash balances. —Management explained that between 2018 and 2022, BAT Kenya retained roughly KES 1B annually to fund investment in the modern oral (Velo) manufacturing project. After a strategic review, the project was divested and the investment recovered “much for much” without impairment. —Since those funds are no longer required for the cancelled capex project, management said they are now being returned to shareholders through higher dividends. —He stressed this is not a structural or permanent shift to paying above earnings, noting that the formal dividend policy remains anchored around a minimum payout ratio of about 65%, with future payouts dependent on performance and investment needs. —They added that payouts can continue to be supported by reserves in the near term, but sustainability will be reassessed if significant capital expenditure is required, particularly if local modern oral manufacturing is reconsidered. —They emphasized that dividends remain central to BAT Kenya’s equity story, highlighting that many shareholders invest primarily for income and that the goal is to deliver sustainable long-term shareholder returns.
Mungai Kihanya@mungaikihanya

@kahome_steve @MwangoCapital What do you think about about a company paying more dividends than profit made two years in a row?

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jack
jack@jack·
we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack
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Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
One reason Greenland is strategically important to the US is in fact twofold: 1. It’s the best place to set up anti-missile defenses to intercept ICBMs coming from Russia / China 2. It’s a very good place to set up offensive missile capabilities to threaten Russia / China The WSJ had a good graphic out a few days ago showing the trajectory of missiles from ICBM sites around Russia to the US would fly overhead or near Greenland, which also happens to be almost directly beneath where those missiles would reach their highest points (“apogee”) which is when they are most vulnerable to interception because they are traveling at their slowest speeds. If you throw a ball into the air you’ll see the same effect - the ball is slowest at its highest point.  And for an intelligently guided missile capable of trying to evade interception, you have an even better chance to shoot it down from a point directly beneath it since that is the closest path to the missile (i.e. least amount of warning time for the missile to realize an interceptor is coming). This above is all courtesy of our resident rocket scientist Phil. The US already has the right to dot Greenland with military installations, and I imagine that extends to intercepting ICBMs. Though Europe might object for some purposes.
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Mwango Capital
Mwango Capital@MwangoCapital·
Safaricom has confirmed a major ownership restructuring that will consolidate Vodafone’s entire position under Vodafone Kenya, while the Government of Kenya retains its 20% stake: Key numbers: —Vodafone Kenya will buy the Government’s 6.01B shares (15% of Safaricom) for KES 204.3B. —The KES 34.00 offer price implies a 21% premium to Safaricom’s KES 28.20 close. —Vodacom Group Limited will increase its stake in Vodafone Kenya to 100% from 87.5% through an internal reorganisation involving the purchase of Vodafone International Holdings B.V.’s 50 shares, representing a 12.5% stake in Vodafone Kenya, and resulting in an additional 4.99% indirect stake in Safaricom. —GoK will receive KES 40.2B upfront in place of future dividends that would have accrued to its retained 20% holding. —Total cash to the state is KES 244.5B, since the KES 68.1B Vodafone-Vodacom transaction is internal and not payable to GoK. —Following both transactions, Vodafone Kenya will hold 55.0% of Safaricom’s share capital, reinforcing its position as the company’s primary strategic shareholder. —Post-transaction ownership: Vodafone Kenya/Vodacom ~55%, GoK ~20%, public ~25%. —Safaricom’s share price is up 96% year to date ahead of the restructuring.
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The Investor
The Investor@ValueInvestor·
I have been reflecting on the increasingly speculative nature of today’s stock market. It has many drivers such as ill-thought-out government dividend, share repurchase, and capital gains tax policies (which leads to quite severe capital dislocations and low growth), the rise of passive speculation (indexing), the market share shrinkage of active investment management, and social media. While reflecting on this, I was able to rediscover this prescient passage from Keynes’ 1936 General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money: “If I may be allowed to appropriate the term speculation for the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market, and the term enterprise for the activity of forecasting the prospective yield of assets over their whole life, it is by no means always the case that speculation predominates over enterprise. As the organisation of investment markets improves, the risk of the predominance of speculation does, however, increase. In one of the greatest investment markets in the world, namely, New York, the influence of speculation (in the above sense) is enormous. Even outside the field of finance, Americans are apt to be unduly interested in discovering what average opinion believes average opinion to be; and this national weakness finds its nemesis in the stock market. It is rare, one is told, for an American to invest, as many Englishmen still do, “for income”; and he will not readily purchase an investment except in the hope of capital appreciation. This is only another way of saying that, when he purchases an investment, the American is attaching his hopes, not so much to its prospective yield, as to a favourable change in the conventional basis of valuation, i.e. that he is, in the above sense, a speculator. Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done”. -John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) “For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young” -Warren Buffett (2024) We are there
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Mwango Capital
Mwango Capital@MwangoCapital·
The World Bank on the good news about the Kenyan economy: —Private sector credit has improved from negative 2.9% in Feb 2025 to about 5% by Aug 2025, signalling that monetary policy transmission is working and credit conditions are normalising. —PMI recovered to above 50 in Oct 2025, ending four consecutive months of contraction and indicating a return to expansion in output, sales, and employment across surveyed firms. —Inflation has eased sharply from 6.9% in Oct 2023 to 4.7% in Oct 2025, with core components still trending downward even as volatile items (housing, utilities, transport) drive the recent uptick. —FX reserves climbed from about $7.1B to about $12.2B, lifting import cover to around 5.5 months, a historically strong position that lowers external vulnerability and boosts investor confidence. —As of Sep 2025, imports grew 10.9%, exports grew 4%, and travel receipts remained robust at 15.3%, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand and continued strength in the tourism sector. —Remittances rose 7% year-on-year as of Sep 2025, continuing to play a stabilising role for household incomes and the external account. —The current account deficit widened to 2.5% of GDP in Q2 2025, driven primarily by the rebound in domestic demand and stronger import growth rather than a deterioration in export performance. —GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was stronger than in 2024, with agriculture above 5%, services resilient, and construction posting a clear turnaround after last year’s contraction.
Mwango Capital tweet mediaMwango Capital tweet mediaMwango Capital tweet mediaMwango Capital tweet media
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Mwango Capital
Mwango Capital@MwangoCapital·
The World Bank on the bad news about the Kenyan economy: —Labor market outcomes remain weak: formal employment growth is slow and real wages have fallen by about 10.7% between 2015 and 2024. —Most new jobs are informal, lower-paying roles, indicating that growth is not translating into better-quality employment. —Fiscal revenues continue to underperform, with an average revenue slippage of 6.1% over the last three years. —The fiscal deficit remains above target, and FY2024/25 saw the gap widen further due to persistent revenue shortfalls. —Public debt has continued rising, reaching about 71.9% of GDP, with the deficit increasingly financed by domestic borrowing. —Fiscal consolidation has missed targets, and higher recurrent spending keeps vulnerability elevated. —Kenya remains at high risk of debt distress, and without deeper reforms, fiscal and debt pressures are likely to persist. —Growth prospects beyond 2025 remain unchanged, reflecting structural constraints and ongoing fiscal challenges.
Mwango Capital tweet mediaMwango Capital tweet media
Mwango Capital@MwangoCapital

The World Bank on the good news about the Kenyan economy: —Private sector credit has improved from negative 2.9% in Feb 2025 to about 5% by Aug 2025, signalling that monetary policy transmission is working and credit conditions are normalising. —PMI recovered to above 50 in Oct 2025, ending four consecutive months of contraction and indicating a return to expansion in output, sales, and employment across surveyed firms. —Inflation has eased sharply from 6.9% in Oct 2023 to 4.7% in Oct 2025, with core components still trending downward even as volatile items (housing, utilities, transport) drive the recent uptick. —FX reserves climbed from about $7.1B to about $12.2B, lifting import cover to around 5.5 months, a historically strong position that lowers external vulnerability and boosts investor confidence. —As of Sep 2025, imports grew 10.9%, exports grew 4%, and travel receipts remained robust at 15.3%, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand and continued strength in the tourism sector. —Remittances rose 7% year-on-year as of Sep 2025, continuing to play a stabilising role for household incomes and the external account. —The current account deficit widened to 2.5% of GDP in Q2 2025, driven primarily by the rebound in domestic demand and stronger import growth rather than a deterioration in export performance. —GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was stronger than in 2024, with agriculture above 5%, services resilient, and construction posting a clear turnaround after last year’s contraction.

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Matteo Franceschetti
Matteo Franceschetti@m_franceschetti·
The AWS outage has impacted some of our users since last night, disrupting their sleep. That is not the experience we want to provide and I want to apologize for it. We are taking two main actions: 1) We are restoring all the features as AWS comes back. All devices are currently working, with some experiencing data processing delays. 2) We are currently outage-proofing your Pod experience and we will be working tonight-24/7 until that is done. More updates soon.
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Justin Wolfers
Justin Wolfers@JustinWolfers·
Stephen Miran just gave a speech outlining the logic of his Fed vote. It's this: He assumes every cockamamie White House claim is true, feeds them into a model, and out pops the number the President has asked for. He has become a walking advertisement for Fed Independence.
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Julians Amboko
Julians Amboko@AmbokoJH·
The engagement on this post (see quoted tweet) on the Tax Appeals Tribunal's judgement on Appeal No.E1116/2024 (Kirin Pipes Limited vs KRA Commissioner Intelligence Strategic Operations Investigations & Enforcement) regarding deposits to one's bank account being deemed income & thus taxable has been massive. The question has been asked recurrently, suppose Kirin Pipes Limited had its books in order in adherence to Sec56(1) of the Tax Procedures Act, was there a chance the outcome would have been different? Of course, it would be pegged on the strength of the documentation but I guess we can infer from a similar case where the Tax Appeals Tribunal's judgement was in favour of the appellant (i.e. favoured the taxpayer & not KRA). So let's whip through it very briefly: · The case is Appeal No.E021/2023 Heineken East Africa Import Company Ltd vs KRA Commissioner of Investigation & Enforcement · Part of the issue at hand was that KRA had resorted to using banking deposits analysis to determine Heineken East Africa's taxable income under the Income Tax Act & taxable supplies under the VAT Act · As a result KRA had slapped Heineken East Africa with an assessment translating to Kes 197,260,962 worth of Corporate Income Tax; Kes 245,637,030 worth of VAT & Kes 59,362,867 worth of Withholding Tax · In total, KRA's demand from Heineken East Africa stood at Kes 502,260,859 Verdict: · Unlike the case of Kirin Pipes Ltd where KRA's tax assessment based on bank deposits was upheld by the Tax Appeals Tribunal, the Authority's case against Heineken East Africa was thrown out & here's why · The Tribunal established that Heineken East Africa had forwarded all relevant accounts payables & accounts receivables for the audit period to KRA. The issue therefore became a question of variances arising from the difference between the expected sales as per the bank statements/deposits & reported sales as per IT2C for Income Tax & sales as per VAT3 for VAT · The Tribunal observed that to respond to KRA's question regarding the variances between bank deposits & IT2C & VAT3, Heineken East Africa provided a reconciliation summary of non-sale items including FX Transfers, bounce back payments & Inter-company Transfers · The Tribunal observed that whereas Heineken East Africa had demonstrated that it did provide documents & analysis of non-income items that created the variance, KRA failed to address these specific issues · The Tribunal therefore threw out KRA's case arguing that the Authority solely relied on bank deposits analysis despite the fact that Heineken East Africa had at all time provided all the documents requested by the Authority · The Tribunal states that its reason for throwing out KRA's demand on Heineken East Africa was that reliance on bank deposits analysis alone risks resulting in the Authority collecting more than is due · The Tribunal also stated that "once Heineken East Africa provides all the documents KRA requested for in relation to the Income tax & VAT, KRA had the obligation to determine the tax liability of the Heineken East Africa based on the documents or ask for additional documents if not satisfied" So what's my take home from all this? · Sec56(1) of the Tax Procedures Act is very clear, the burden of proof always lies with the taxpayer. So get your books in order · Your story must be consistent from start to finish, & it must be backed by verifiable documents · If you can, try as much as it is legally possible to close issues with the Authority at the audit stage. Hii maneno ya "see you in court" can be a rabbit hole you will regret getting into
Julians Amboko tweet media
Julians Amboko@AmbokoJH

In what circumstances can KRA deem all deposits into your bank account as income & therefore taxable? The judgement on appeal E1116/2024 (Kirin Pipes Limited vs KRA Commissioner Intelligence Strategic Operations Investigations & Enforcement) before the Tax Appeals Tribunal is one I think every Kenyan needs to read. The Big Issue: · The issue at hand is a crucial one - In what instances can KRA deem all deposits into a bank account as income & therefore taxable? The Contention: · KRA conducted an investigation into Kirin Pipes Limited's tax affairs for the period 2019 - 2022 & issued assessments for income tax of Kes 34,300,288 & VAT of Kes 22,687,105 · Kirin Pipes Limited went before the Tribunal arguing that KRA made an error by assuming that every deposit made into its bank accounts amounted to income capable of being charged tax Kirin Pipes Limited's argument: · The company commenced its operations in 2019 during which shareholders injected share capital. The ordinary share capital was Kes 10.0 Million but the company required further capital & therefore shareholders deposited a further Kes 29,425,495.45 into its bank account · The company therefore argues that the deposit of Kes 29,425,495.45 was not income but capital injection · During its formative years, the company required funds to help cover the initial setup costs & operating expenses & sought for a Kes 31,697.392 loan from Nanchang Municipal Engineering Development · The company therefore argues that this deposit ought not be subjected to income tax by KRA since it was a loan · The company also argued that it received funds from its shareholders totalling Kes 24,619,662 to fund its operations & that the said amounts were not income but shareholders deposits The Verdict: · The Tax Appeals Tribunal held that Kirin Pipes Limited failed to provide an analysis of the specific deposits which related to capital injections & to link the deposits to the shareholders who are indicated in the Official Company Search (form CR12). · The Tribunal observed that Kirin Pipes Limited provided uncertified bank statements & swift confirmation slips which could not be attributed to capital deposits in the absence of other corroborative documents such as an analysis & description of the deposits, Meeting Minutes/ Resolutions or any other document to demonstrated that indeed the amounts in question were capital injections · The Tribunal held that it was incumbent upon Kirin Pipes Limited to demonstrate the flow of capital from its shareholders & how the same was eventually accounted for by the company · The Tribunal also held that Kirin Pipes Limited failed to provide evidence of the resultant shareholding structure after deposits by the said shareholders. Whereas Kirin Pipes Limited submitted form CR12, it only showed the initial capital of Kes 10.0 Million · Tribunal found that Kirin Pipes Limited failed to prove that deposits worth Kes 54,045,101.45 in its bank accounts during the period under review were attributable to capital injection from its shareholders · The Tribunal established that whereas Kirin Pipes Limited argued that a deposit worth Kes 31,697,392 was a loan from Nanchang Municipal Development Corporation, the documents indicated that it was interest free & the same could be repaid at any time at the discretion of Kirin Pipes Limited · The Tribunal held that such open terms in the loan agreement made it difficult to verify whether the amount was indeed a loan, given that there was no interest charged & neither was there a repayment period · Tribunal also pointed out that from the date the loan agreement was signed in 2019 to the date of assessments in 2024, Kirin Pipes Limited did not provide proof of any repayments it made towards the said facility · The Tribunal therefore found that the documents tabled by Kirin Pipes Limited to support its claim that Kes 31,697,392.00 of the deposits in its accounts were proceeds of a loan advanced were insufficient & did not meet the evidential threshold of disproving that the loan was income chargeable to tax · In sum the Tribunal found that KRA did not err in treading all deposits into Kirin Pipes Limited's bank account as income & therefore taxable

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ZΞfi
ZΞfi@zefi·
At some point the meaning of ‘driving’ and ‘self-driving’ will invert.
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Alex Vacca
Alex Vacca@itsalexvacca·
Facebook once bought a VPN app for $120M and turned it into a surveillance tool that spied on 33M+ users' entire phones for years. This app helped Zuck buy WhatsApp for a whopping $19B and break Snapchat's encryption. Thread
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