@ProfessorPape I used to pronounce Ahmadinejad as 'Dinnerjacket'.
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ARDUOUS DREAMWALKER '91
311 posts
ARDUOUS DREAMWALKER '91
@lead_lined_box
My Twitter Account. Just another one among millions, making my way up through the world.
Melbourne, Victoria Katılım Ocak 2019
73 Takip Edilen1 Takipçiler
Bizarre…and shows the extent of delusional thinking driving Trump’s war on Iran
Now delusional thinking has met escalation reality
And the world is paying the price
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@DrNeilStone The war has failed Neil. No matter how many times you post, it's not going to make any difference (unless conscription is brought back). Self-delusion and wishful thinking can only take you so far.
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@MrLukeGeorge The war is a strategic failure and no amount of bombing is going to change that.
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Any military action against the IRI regime I welcome as it would further degrade the regime!
However, I am concerned renewed military operations will just be to pressure the regime to sign a deal rather than regime change!
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@mdubowitz Stop grasping at straws. The more you do this (emphasizing tactical 'victories'), the more evident it is that this war is a failure.
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I’m continuing to dig deeper into Iran’s ballistic missile trajectory — and the numbers are staggering.
Before Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion, Iran had 2,500 ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel. Without military action, that arsenal was on track for 4,000, then 8,000, and over 10,000 within a short time period — alongside an operational ICBM program threatening the American homeland.
During the war, Iran fired about 900 ballistic missiles at Israel. Only five penetrated Israeli air defenses, killing about 25 people. The regime then effectively abandoned that strategy.
Today, Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal capable of hitting Israel is estimated at 1,000 to 1,100 missiles. Production of those missiles has collapsed from roughly 100 per month to near zero. The ballistic missile production base has been devastated, delaying Iran’s path to a massive arsenal by many years.
Mark Dubowitz@mdubowitz
I’ve been checking multiple sources and assessments on Iran’s ballistic missile capability. The picture that’s emerging is that Iran has lost roughly half of its ballistic missile arsenal and about half of its missile launchers. Missile production, once estimated at roughly 100 missiles per month, appears to have fallen close to zero. The missile production infrastructure has been decimated. Before the war, Iran was on a trajectory to reach an arsenal of roughly 10,000 ballistic missiles within about two and a half years. Now, estimates suggest the regime is down to roughly 1,000–1,100 missiles remaining — a dramatic degradation of one of Tehran’s most important strategic capabilities. There is a strong argument for major military operations to resume to further degrade this deadly threat.
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@Wv_Cannon @Matt_Bracken48 For the looks of your post, you really haven't been paying a lot of attention.
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Your wrong again. Iran has lost how many leaders? If someone killed two of our presidents along with numerous others, you would think we won? Hahaha, you are delusional thinking they have "Won". Iran exists on a map, that's about all that's the same as 2 months ago. We did regime change without any boots on ground. Keep selling lies. Like motor oil shortage, lolol
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Trump is going to order the military "liberation" of Cuba to erase the sting of defeat by Iran.
[Yes, defeat. After 80 days, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, the Iranian govt is standing, and the economic wreckage from his war of choice is spreading around the globe.]
Trump hopes that the Iran debacle will be obscured between his "glorious victories" in Venezuela and Cuba.
DD Geopolitics@DD_Geopolitics
🇺🇸🇨🇺 The US is planning to overthrow the Cuban government, with a military operation in preparation, according to Politico. Trump and his advisers are frustrated that their pressure campaign, including cutting off fuel supplies to the island, has failed to force Havana into major economic and political reforms. Washington had counted on sanctions and an oil blockade to intimidate Cuba into a deal. It did not work. Pentagon options range from a single airstrike to coerce the Cuban government into concessions, to a full ground invasion.
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@Matt_Bracken48 In other words, he's trying to pull a Grenada (or a Panama).
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@jameslimcq @DD_Geopolitics A Grenada, in other words.
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@DD_Geopolitics Trump got educated by Iran leaving a pile of shit for the world and now he’s off to start to look for a quick win LOL.
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🇺🇸🇨🇺 The US is planning to overthrow the Cuban government, with a military operation in preparation, according to Politico.
Trump and his advisers are frustrated that their pressure campaign, including cutting off fuel supplies to the island, has failed to force Havana into major economic and political reforms.
Washington had counted on sanctions and an oil blockade to intimidate Cuba into a deal. It did not work.
Pentagon options range from a single airstrike to coerce the Cuban government into concessions, to a full ground invasion.
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@MarcLCosta @ProfessorPape True, Germania didn't have as much to offer economically wise as Gallia or Iberia.
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@lead_lined_box @ProfessorPape There have been many cases where Rome has lost the battle and won the war. Rome decided to not continue in Germany after a cost vs benefit analysis ie not worth it.
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The 1991 Gulf War created the post–Cold War world
The 2026 Iran war may have ended it
For 30 years, the world assumed the U.S. could dominate escalation almost anywhere on earth
Iran may be the first war that shattered that assumption
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@miadmaleki This is just more wishful thinking. The air campaign failed, the blockade isn't working and Iran is willing to take the punishment to wait out the United States, similar to the North Vietnamese. This is just 'any day now' rhetorical fallacy.
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Iran's closing of the Strait of Hormuz isn't a weapon pointed at Washington or Tel Aviv. It's a gun aimed at Tehran's own economic head, and at every "friendly" country that actually keeps the Iranian economy breathing. It's an act of self-destruction directed at Iran's own economy, and a declaration of economic war against its friends.
The two countries Iran is supposedly threatening have virtually no Hormuz dependency.
Meanwhile, ~90% of Iran's own oil exports pass through the Strait. Oil constitutes 40%+ of Iran's total export revenue. Iran needs oil above $163/barrel just to balance its budget, the highest fiscal breakeven of any Middle Eastern exporter.
China, Iran's #1 trading partner and buyer of ~90% of its exported oil, receives 37.7% of ALL Hormuz crude flows. Half of China's entire oil import supply runs through this strait.
Qatar, not Iran's enemy, produces ~20% of global LNG, almost all of it transiting Hormuz. QatarEnergy has already declared force majeure. Iraq and Kuwait, with NO bypass routes, are hemorrhaging oil revenues. UAE and Oman, both critical trade and diplomatic partners for Iran, are severely disrupted.
And it gets worse for Iran itself. Virtually ALL of Iran's corn imports (its primary feed grain) arrive through Persian Gulf ports. Iran imports ~30% of its wheat. 80–90% of pharmaceutical raw materials are imported. Food inflation is already exploding inside Iran.
Open Source Intel@Osint613
Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson: Only two LNG tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz, but that does not mean normal traffic has resumed
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@LambertNolen @ProfessorPape Desert Storm was a masterpiece militarily and politically. Epic Fury was a masterpiece of military and political illiteracy.
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@ProfessorPape Sure but you have to take into account Bush Sr. had one of the best foreign policy teams since WWII and trump leads a bunch of Fox News alcoholics. There really is no comparison.
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@acasantos @ProfessorPape Iran is not there yet, but America's ability to shape things the way it used too through overwhelming military force is no longer viable.
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@ProfessorPape Might we be witnessing the return of a multipolar world, with Iran now asserting itself as a new strategic actor?
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@MarcLCosta @ProfessorPape Teutoberg Forest permanently ended Roman expansion into Germania (and ended the closest thing Rome had to a manifest destiny), but it didn't stop Rome from constantly making expeditions against the Germanic tribes for centuries onwards.
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@ProfessorPape Rome's defeat in the Teutoburg Forest was not an indication of it's decline or that the legion had badly trained soldiers. Rome was not given the opportunity to fight the way it was used to. Exactly the same with the Iran conflict.
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@cut_dice @ProfessorPape I don't agree with the idea that the US is showing restraint: the US and Israel launched the most extensive air campaign since Desert Storm, with expectations of a quick victory. Despite tactical successes, Iran soaked it up like a sponge.
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The US is showing restraint, not lack of capacity.
He is right, though, in that the Chinese are watching. And what they’ve witnessed is continued air superiority and unmatched intelligence.
They’ve also shown that the us has learned how to not get sucked into a protracted war when other levers are still available.
The US maintains its unilateral escalation capacity. It is for the time being choosing not to deploy it.
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@Mark_Penn The war is a strategic failure. There is nothing else the US can do other than walk away or escalate, risking another forever war. No amount of fantasies and wishful thinking can change this.
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Iran Resolution
With just about every senator having agreed Iran should never have a nuclear weapon, how puzzling it is that nearly half the senate would vote to end all military operations against Iran at a crucial moment while Iran violates international law by controlling the Strait of Hormuz and continues to execute its own people for protests while banning the internet so they cannot communicate with the rest of the world.
Imagine if the Senate could actually pass such a resolution and imagine it would be binding. Such a resolution would immediately clear the path for Iran to have a nuclear weapon; would imperil all of the neighboring nations including the UAE. All progress in the region would come to a halt as terrorist proxies would be emboldened. It would be catastrophic and yet rather than back a resolution that supports America against Iran but say adds more Congressional oversight, the Dems instead push for a resolution that would be an immediate and unconditional surrender to Iran and its proxies. This is a direct undermining of our country and plays into the hands of the Iranians.
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@cultivatin9760 @ProfessorPape Wishful thinking.
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Good, let's all hope so! Your defeatism is numbing and mindless. The US and Israel completely control the air over iran and the straits and you act as though that is nothing. If we wanted to the US could take out their oil production and refining facilities as well as their electrical grid like we took out their air force, navy and missile forces already. THAT is control not a few speed boats and drones that can and will be countered. You have led yourself and your followers into a cul de sac of idiocy.
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Trump is sending a clear message:
The war is NOT over
The next shock is coming,
Including to the world economy
See new post at Escalation Trap
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@Valenti99842103 @gummibear737 Don’t be paranoid.
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@gummibear737 Him and the Left are trying to sabotage and make Trump look bad
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@Ivanof4DC @gummibear737 A lot has changed warfare wise since 1988. What applied back then, doesn’t apply today. This is just grasping at straws,
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@gummibear737 Novelty bias.
There is a market for bunk disguised as academic analysis and there is an audience that forgot Operation Praying Mantis.
And because new ideas are often more memorable, even if they are bunk, the guy gets remembered.
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@JohnnyNash77 Trump has no viable military solutions. The ‘quick and overwhelming’ part was supposed to happen in the first few weeks, and nothing strategic was obtained.
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Trump needs to do something that ends this once and for all.
Quick and overwhelming.
“Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, says Washington has 2 choices: accept Tehran’s terms or “surrender to our missiles.”
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@Orlandodanny @JohnnyNash77 Furthermore, you’ll need to bring conscription back for that.
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@JohnnyNash77 Such as? The only sure way to end the regime is a land invasion and the chance of that is zero.
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@DrNeilStone Once again, give it a rest Neil and move on. Airpower didn’t work the first time and it won’t the second. The war is a strategic failure and no amount of fantasies and wishful thinking will change that.
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