Padhraic Garvey

ING THINK: Rates Spark: As the dust settles, there’s still a price to pay think.ing.com/articles/rates… Our reading of events, as they unfold, point to the logic of upholding the Iran war ceasefire, and an extension through to a virtual end to these specific hostilities. The US will want to get hands on Iran's enriched uranium, and if they do, may then hold their nose as Iran assumes a 'monitoring' role over the Strait

ING THINK: Rates Spark: A gift from Pakistan think.ing.com/articles/rates… We're not sure what will happen at 8pm this evening. But a window has just been presented by a call for a two-week ceasefire. There has been no reaction to this as of yet from the US. But it does present an opportunity to take us away from the brink. The alternative is concerning

ING THINK: A list of worries that risk flipping much worse think.ing.com/opinions/a-lis… We need a positive delta soon in order to change the market mindset. We head into week five of the war in more hope than expectation. Here's the lowdown

ING THINK: The war and rates – flashing Amber. Let’s avoid Red think.ing.com/opinions/the-w… We identify many warnings, mostly at amber alert. A switch to red, and suddenly the kick-back domestically begins to dominate. Exposures to areas of vulnerability in turn can lead to a transferred vulnerability. Make it go away, and we can all exhale

ING THINK: Rates Spark: The problem children get more cranky think.ing.com/articles/rates… The problem children of higher US break-even inflation and wider US swap spreads remains problematic – we explore #Treasuries

ING THINK: Rates Spark: Inflation expectations on the march again think.ing.com/articles/rates… President Trump's words from Monday continue to reverberate, but into a vacuum of ongoing conflict. The oil price has tamed, as has material risk asset angst. But US breakeven inflation and swap spreads are on the march wider. Not great.

ING THINK: Rates Spark: The epic fury calms think.ing.com/articles/rates… The US will remain in the game, but more in the guise of a tidy-up exercise. Big market moves in consequence. Now the dust settles #Iran #Treasuries

ING THINK: Rates Spark: On the verge of breakouts think.ing.com/articles/rates… Payrolls: We have a sneaking feeling that the number risks being on the low side (could even be a surprise negative), as the construction jobs bounce in Jan is reversed on account of the poor weather in Feb

ING THINK: Rates: Lessons from the Iraq war think.ing.com/articles/rates… We've not seen this exact movie before, but we've certainly seen a version of it

ING THINK: Rates Spark: Day two and the pendulum swings again think.ing.com/articles/rates… In the US, front-end inflation break-even has spiked, but longer term they remain tolerably benign

ING THINK: Tariff slapdown: What the markets say think.ing.com/snaps/tariff-s… On balance, we view the greater risk as focused on the fiscal deficit, in turn placing upside risks to yields. It’s tough to argue that there is a growth spurt to come from this whole mess

ING THINK: How Kevin Warsh could put the toothpaste back into the tube at the US Fed think.ing.com/opinions/how-k… Federal Reserve Chair-elect Kevin Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet; not a crazy aspiration. Not impossible, but it risks being a right mess

ING THINK: Rates Spark: Quiz Time think.ing.com/articles/rates… Question: Average US 10yr yield in the past year? Answer: 4.2%. Average 10yr yield in the past 3 years? Also 4.2%. Now, what average should we expect for the year ahead? The starting point is 4.05%. We still like the 4.2%

ING THINK: Rates Spark: US Treasuries turn tail and dive for safety think.ing.com/articles/rates… We had some dodgy US labour market data early on, but the turn of the knife came from the risk-off tone. Day two of these things is typically pivotal

ING THINK: Colombia: Another rate hike process begins - how to play it think.ing.com/opinions/colom… We've been here before – on the eve of a rate hike process. But the extent of cumulative hikes need not be as some may think, nor is there a need for super large individual hikes.

ING THINK: US dollar stakes get raised - what to do now in the rates space? think.ing.com/opinions/the-s… President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent have both opined on the US dollar, actually in opposite directions. The path of least resistance is weaker. How to play this?

ING THINK: Rates Spark: A Fed Chair walked into a bar think.ing.com/articles/rates… He'll not talk about the grand jury proceeding. He'll not talk about whether he'll leave in May. He'll not talk about who the next Chair might be. Shame, as that's mostly what we really want to know

ING THINK: Rates Spark: Yields have spiked, but levels are far from overly elevated think.ing.com/articles/rates… The 'back and forth' on Greenland is an issue. But nothing has actually happened. The same goes for the Trump pick for the Fed chair. It's all talk

ING THINK: Japan and South Korea: Big moves, big opportunity think.ing.com/opinions/japan… We see #Japan and #Korea as the inverse to #China on rates arbitrage

.@MarketsGarvey explains why he has a bold call for USD/CNY to fluctuate in the 6.85 to 7.25 range in 2026. If he's right, paying low Chinese rates while receiving higher US dollar rates in the coming year is almost akin to a free lunch. think.ing.com/opinions/rates…