@ds_314159 @fchollet now they have a money printer that prints trillions in extra when they need it. That is by far different than any other era
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Onur
935 posts
@fchollet But, there is a valid point here. Buying stocks at high PE multiples has historical not been a good strategy. Let’s not overwork the chart.
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This is a type of chart crime: when you plot value tuples from a timeseries on a 2D scatter plot like this as if they were independent samples, you are leveraging temporal autocorrelation to magnify any existing x/y correlation and hide the actual variance.
You're also hiding temporal distribution drift (the typical value range for x and y, and the relation between them, change over long periods)
Patient Investor@patientinvestor
Howard Marks: "When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2% and –2%, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE!"
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@Badie912 @safetyth1rd hotel prices are very close to what market demands. If they see demand can pay that they increase the prices. You can easily check how some hotels in cities in ME adjusted their prices now because demand is way lower or it's not even exist currently.
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He is protesting what he sees as injustice. He is right about many hotels. They are charging absurd prices and people pay because they have to or they want to be seen at a particular place.
I've seen some luxury hotels go up 3x over the past 5 years. They were expensive to begin with, now they are absurd and there are many additional fees and services are super high.
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Saw vitalik in person a few times and what struck me
1 dude is absolutely brilliant. In one interview I heard three billion dollar ideas
2 dude has no sense of money at all. Has never had to worry about it in his adult life so doesn’t quite get the value of it outside of a mathematical sense.
2 keeps him as one of the purest people in crypto. As to him moral values are more powerful than money. He’s a great founder
2 is also why he doesn’t totally understand human behavior around incentives
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@MikeIppolito_ Token model, meta, or whatever marketing term we can associate it with is DEAD. we need new model? Tokens are not investable because %99,99 of people who create them lies and use vague terms that lead to this point.
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I am begging the industry to wake up and focus on this.
Investors - insist on transparency, diclosures, and standardized data.
Exchanges - onboard transparency metrics, penalize tokens that don't comply.
Protocol founders - speak to your investors, make disclosures, tell your stories, and sell your token (no it's not scammy to do, this isn't 2021).
If we don't fix this and soon, the industry as we know it will cease to exist.
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@floriandarroman wise can't die by product made by anti crypto team and anti crypto ceo. Wise itself is anti crypto too.
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RIP Wise.
I lost $8,000 in fees last year.
And I had no idea.
I’m French. I live in Bali. I run a US LLC.
Every dollar I earn touches 3 countries before it reaches my pocket.
1. Stripe takes 1%–3% on every transaction.
2. Wise takes a cut on every transfer.
3. Currency conversion eats another big chunk every single time.
I thought this was just the cost of doing business internationally. I never questioned it.
Then I realized there were other options.
@airwallex. was on the top of my list but now I’ll 100% switch.
The money I’ll save in fees will make me fly business to Europe for free each year.
Jack Zhang@awxjack
We saved our customers over $1.3 Billion in 2025 alone. That value has helped @Airwallex reach $1.2 Billion in ARR, growing 85% YoY. @Deel, @McLarenF1 , @boltapp and 200,000+ other customers trust us because legacy banking wasn't meant for global businesses: • Opening a bank account in a new country takes weeks • SWIFT transfers take 3-5 days • Other platforms convert your money even when you don't want to But with Airwallex you can: 1. Open an account and get paid like a local in 70 countries Most platforms force you to convert your money into your currency and charge you a conversion fee to do it. With Airwallex, your UK client pays you in GBP and it sits in your GBP balance. Your Australian client pays in AUD and it sits in your AUD balance. When you need to pay a UK vendor or run Australian payroll, you can simply pay from the same currency in your Airwallex account which leads to zero conversion fees. 2. Send and receive money on the same day SWIFT takes 3–5 days and hits you with unpredictable fees on every transfer. But over 90% of Airwallex transactions happen on the same day. Since Airwallex uses local rails to move your money, it also happens at near-zero cost. 3. Issue multi-currency cards instantly Airwallex helps you issue multi-currency cards to your employees across the entire world. And every transaction is automatically synced to your accounting system in real-time. 4. Integrate Airwallex in your product SaaS platforms and marketplaces can also use our APIs to offer these financial services to their customers. In fact, many companies are doing it already. But this is just a glimpse of what Airwallex can do. We’re building the all-in-one financial stack your company will ever need. If you're doing $50M+ in revenue, you could save up to $500k in fees. And that's money back into your business. Sign up for a demo here: airwallex.com/offer/airwalle…
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@kyan_novoyd @hrkrshnn @OpenAI @AnthropicAI chatgpt release was iphone moment for tech and it was clear for many.
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@hrkrshnn @OpenAI @AnthropicAI Tbf dont think research labs are what public would be interested to fund till a much later stage at 2024ish when they became revenue generating or hit pmf plus a lot more noise as well for them to handle and answer as well, It would have been nice for sure but they don't owe us
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The biggest crime that @OpenAI and @AnthropicAI are committing against the world is staying private.
It's pretty clear they'll lead to large-scale labor displacement, and not letting people have upside on revolutionary tech is making it worse.
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@TheReeveOliver @Ldnbox wait until you realize what internal teams in META already do, you would not believe it, lol.
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@Ldnbox Why is the founder allowed to read the details of their accounts?
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SaaS founder realizes they may have accidentally built the backbone for a drug trafficking operation. 😜
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Unfortunately, my team got cut in the layoffs. A disappointing outcome to an otherwise fantastic experience. I’m very grateful to have been a Messari Research Analyst.
What I can confidently say is that quality thought-leadership is presently the most undervalued resource in crypto. The mediocrity of AI-driven writing and reasoning has convinced many that it is a suitable replacement for a research analyst.
I promise you - it isn’t.
Frontier technologies today (crypto, AI, robotics, quantum) are hyper-ideological and incredibly contentious. We’re entering a new era that demands human judgement and debate. LLMs will tell you what’s consensus.
Ask any LLM today if an intelligent person should pivot from crypto to AI; they all say yes.
We need thought-leaders willing to play 4D chess in public and get a couple moves wrong before they win the match. Humanity is incredibly undervalued in the 21st century.
Lastly, the talent density at Messari was unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Any crypto companies hiring should reach out to myself, Diran, or any of the Messari folks directly to get in contact if you’re looking to hire.
DEGEN NEWS@DegenerateNews
NEW: MESSARI CEO STEPS DOWN ALONGSIDE MASS LAYOFFS IN AI PIVOT - THE BLOCK SOURCE: theblock.co/post/393840/me…
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@gavinpurcell it took ages for them to open midjourney.com for access, one of the most ridiculous time I have seen on the web. it's like they didn't wanted grow, or just wanted discord to get more users. maybe they had deal with discord ??
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midjourney is an interesting example of an ai company that completely rejected the scale play...
and now might be suffering for doing so
also, 'this is just what it costs' is interesting customer service messaging
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@levelsio @raj_raj88 This was not calculated under unlimited money printer. Printed double digit trillions changes risk free returns. Current and future inflation will eat that $1million because population is also not growing aka consumer spending.
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Even bigger irony of getting rich is that everything expensive isn't that much better than when you paid normal for it
Many things are even worse (most expensive luxury hotels are guaranteed worse than regular simple hotels, I know I tried most of them now)
The real reason you wanna get rich is not to buy expensive things
It's so that $1M invested gives you 3% to take out every year with no risk, which is $30,000/year
Which you can use to travel for $1000/mo on a shoestring budget forever without having to back to some desk job with a shitty boss
Aka FREEDOM
@levelsio@levelsio
The irony is that traveling on <$1000/mo is way more fun than >$10,000/mo Luxury travel is extremely boring, comfortable, not challenging, sycophantic (yes sir) Travel on a shoestring budget you get inventive, are forced to meet locals just to survive and get around, have to hitchhike etc I like to combine cheap and luxury travel which keeps my brain from decaying and the contrast actually lets you enjoy both
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Onur retweetledi
@EliBenSasson Disclaimer: you own it until chain does hardfork, protocol you use gets hacked or your old permission you gave makes your wallet drained.
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Here's what normies get wrong about crypto:
It's not about technology.
It's not the hash, electricty, ZK, cryptography.
Crypto is about values: Own Your Life -- your money, your reputation, your relationships.
You own it.
Not banks, nor state, nor companies.
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@dexhorthy @djkgamc I loveee how "goalpost" for ai coding agents is now 10m LOC codebase. It used to be a lot lower. see the trend?
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Here’s what’s gonna happen:
- you replace your code review with feedback loops (sentry, datadog, support tickets, etc)
- you stop reading the code
- software factory fixes everything
- one day something breaks at 3am, agent can’t fix it
- nobody’s read the code in 3 months
- you have 3 weeks of downtime trying to re-onboard and fix it
- you lose significant % of your contracts and users
- your company is now dead
dex@dexhorthy
@gregpr07 this may surprise you that thus is coming from me but I think we’re in for a 1-3 year period where stuff might break at 3am and if you’re relying on loops to fix it and nobody understands what’s under the hood, you’re looking at an existential threat to your company
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@0xCryptoSam @aaalexhl @defi_monk @bitfinex I see why @MessariCrypto is useless product. Researcher there don't even know basic up to date information about crypto fees.
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@0xCryptoSam @aaalexhl @defi_monk meanwhile everything is literally free in terms of fees on @bitfinex Why are they excluded from this conversation and comparison?
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aggregate daily volume traded:
1.FX: $9.6 T
2.Interest rate derivatives:$ 7.2T
3.Bonds / Treasuries: $1-2.5T
4.Exchange-traded derivatives: $1 T
5.Equities (stocks): $0.6–1T
6.Commodities: 0.5-1T
7.Crypto: 0.08-0.2T
one day a blockchain will house all of these trades.
dream bigger
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@roberttcu12 @TimurNegru Danger from random illegal immigrants + local crime is high in south. safeture.com/wp-content/upl…
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5.2 acres of land in Italy, a working olive grove that produces oil, private woodland, a renovated stone farmhouse and an 80m² cellar. €260k ($300k).
A lot of people are rethinking where they live and how they live. This is what that looks like in practice.
A courtyard with a wood oven and grape pergola. Three connected structures, 150m² (1,615 sq ft) of living space, 2 beds and 2 baths.
Get Starlink, run your business from anywhere, add solar panels, collect your water. You're largely off-grid.
One hour from Rome if you ever get bored and need the city.
Is this the kind of property that starts making more sense the more the world changes?
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@ViktorBunin Even if we get AGI, rules, laws and regulations would make it decades to takeover all sectors. Look at drivers, even waymo and robotaxi is not worldwide, it's still limited to few millions passengers after so many years.
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it is so fucking obvious we're not going to have AGI in the next few years. it's all a big psyop to make AI builders feel important and to justify the extravagant spend and valuations. everyone should calm down.
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