Peter Kellner

Is our two-party system on the way out? The past century has been punctuated by predictions that it would collapse. It hasn't. My new year Substack post discusses whether it now faces a more potent challenge than in the past. kellnerp.substack.com/p/is-our-two-p…

Elon Musk is talking to @Nigel_Farage about how to help @reformparty_uk. Could Farage become Prime Minister? Unlikely but not impossible. Here is what it would take. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-nige…

Twas the night(mare) before Christmas... Suppose Farage asked one of his team at Reform to set out a strategy for victory. This Substack post is my stab at the advice they could give him. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-nige…

@kimleadbeater won a famous victory on Friday with her #AssistedDyingBill. Good. But religious objections were barely mentioned: not so good. Read my Substack post here (and, if you wish, sign up to future posts free of charge) kellnerp.substack.com/p/kim-leadbeat…

Exposed: the myth about Labour's Red Wall triumph. Ministers' rule out an EU deal that restores frictionless trade.They think their more limited policy won back votes in the Red Wall. My latest Substack post challenges this belief. (Subscribe for free) kellnerp.substack.com/p/exposed-the-…

Two cheers for America's pollsterrs, but none for @jaselzer or @NateSilver538. What went right last week, what went wrong, and why. My analysis for @prospect_uk prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united-s…

The big question is the same for all Budgets: What can possibly go wrong? My Substack post sets out the Risk Register that Rachel Reeves is likely to need. kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-can-pos…

Oops. Here is the right link. A popular magazine has some great ideas for rescuing Labour from its current malaise. It was published 84 years ago. Here is what it said, and its lessons for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves. kellnerp.substack.com/p/let-us-face-…

A popular magazine has some great ideas for rescuing Labour from its current malaise. It was published 84 years ago. Here is what it said, and its lessons for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves kellnerp.substack.com/p/let-us-fac...

Will the US polls be third time lucky? My latest blog for Substack uncovers the big mistake they made in 2020, and why it won't be repeated. kellnerp.substack.com/publish/post/1… From now on, follow me on Substack kellnerp.substack.com and BlueSky @peterkellner.bsky.social

A reminder that I have moved to Blue Sky: @peterkellner.bsky.social. In addition I have started writing on Substack: kellnerp.substack.com

In my last message I mistyped my handle on my bluesky account. It's @peterkellner.bsky.social

Apologies if you are seeing this message for the second time. Not sure my previous one reached cyberspace. I am leaving X/Twitter and from now on will post my messages on @paterkellner.bsky.social

Can Kamala Harris defeat Donald Trump? My blog for @prospect_uk analyses the latest American polls. prospectmagazine.co.uk/world/united-s…

Conventional wisdom says a Labour landslide all but guarantees 10 years of Lab rule. CW is wrong. Lab has reached the summit because the mountain shrunk, thanks to Tories and Farage. My blog for @prospect_uk argues that Lab may be less lucky next time. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Too many polls? Nonsense: the more the better. Together, they dampen the noise and give us the signal. This tells us that over the campaign, Lab and Con are down, LD and Reform up, with Lab lead virtually unchanged. See my blog for @prospect_uk prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

In heading for their historic defeat on July 4, the Tories have ended up losing big battles on two fronts, both defined by Brexit. My blog for @prospect_uk examines how the Boris Johnson's winning coalition in 2019 has crumbled to dust. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Conservatives down from 43 to 16%, holding just 2 seats, and overtaken by Reform's populist appeal. No, not a prediction for July 4. At least not yet. It's what happened in Canada in 1993. My blog for @prospect_uk considers whether it can happen here. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…

Forget 1997; the current election is more like 1945 - with the strongest Tory areas suffering most. This is terrible news for @RishiSunak. In 1945, Labour owed its landslide to this pattern. Compared with what would have happened under uniform swing, it doubled Labour's majority

Yes, Labour is plainly on course for a landslide victory, unless... My latest blog for @prospect_uk looks at the lessons from history, the accuracy of polls and how far campaigns change voters' minds. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/elect…