Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Polvans
2.3K posts
Polvans
@Polvah
10+ years in markets | Tracking future outliers | High-conviction calls only | Vision over noise | ⚠️ NFA | Macro-Investments @TrendAnalytics_
Switzerland Katılım Aralık 2016
220 Takip Edilen693 Takipçiler
Polvans retweetledi
This is all similar to 2022.
Thin liquidity, unforgiving sell offs, as well as unforgiving bounces for those too impatient to sit on hands to wait for the asymmetrical bet rather than to try to outsmart the market by putting on too many trades in the wrong moments & bad pricing.
The patient will win this year. You know this if you have any experience. Less will be more.
English
The photonics sector is getting crushed today.
$AAOI $COHR $LITE $AXTI $OPTX red across the board
Here's why:
> The main catalyst: April 14
In January, Trump signed the Section 232 on advanced semiconductors, 25% tariff on a narrow category, effective January 15. But the proclamation states that within 90 days, April 14, Commerce and USTR must report back to Trump on the outcome of trade negotiations.
Phase two means broader tariffs across the entire sector.
The market doesn't wait to find out. It sells first.
The geopolitical layer: China
China has opened two trade investigations against the US, one focused specifically on exports of advanced technology.
For names like $AXTI, which manufactures indium phosphide substrates with heavy exposure to China, this isn't noise. It's real supply chain risk.
InP is the material that powers the sector. No InP, no lasers. No lasers, no AI data centers.
The technical layer: the run was too fast
$LITE is up 967% in the past year. $AAOI guided $1B in 2026 revenue. $COHR is $NVDA's named partner on Spectrum-X.
When you move that far, that fast, you don't need bad news to sell off. Uncertainty is enough.
The thesis doesn't break here.
AI photonics demand is structural. CPO, silicon photonics, 1.6T transceivers... none of that disappears with an April 14 report.
But the market is nervous and tariffs are the most unpredictable weapon on the table.
Red today. Thesis intact. Eyes on April 14.
English
Not even 24 hours later from this tweet:
> $FNMA +39%
> $FMCC +38%.
In 2008 the government said ‘we’ll save them.’
Since then the Treasury’s been treating them like their personal piggy bank for 18 years.
Moral of the story: When Ackman calls something ‘stupidly cheap,’ you either 10x… or go back to zero. No in-between.
Welcome to 2026 capitalism: two zombie GSEs backing 70% of US mortgages pump 40% on a single tweet.
Who’s still believing?
$FNMA $FMCC
Bill Ackman@BillAckman
And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.
English
When this gentleman speaks.
You listen.
And do.
Simple!
Bill Ackman@BillAckman
Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the MSM. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the U.S. and the world. And we have the potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.
English
$MSFT just broke below its 200-week moving average.
For the first time since 2013.
Let that sink in.
A level that held through every correction, every rate hike, every crisis of the last 12 years.
> 2015 China crash: Held
> 2018 Fed rate hike panic: Held
> 2020 covid crash: Held
> 2022 bear market: Held
> 2023 regional banking crisis: Held
> 2025 volatility: Held
Until now.
The stock is at $357. RSI at 28, deeply oversold.
>$81B revenue last quarter
>$38B net income
>Azure growing double digits
>Copilot just getting started
Nothing changed in the fundamentals. Everything changed in the sentiment.
That's the opportunity.
The last time $MSFT traded at these technical levels, the stock was around $30.
The people who bought that fear built generational wealth.
$MSFT holds > generational entry.
English
Polvans retweetledi
I DO NOT have TELEGRAM OR WHATSAPP GROUPS nor will I ever give you my phone number to chat.
I also DO NOT offer copy trading services or anything related to crypto.
Please do not fall prey to scams or impersonators.
English
Volatility isn’t risk.
Risk is buying something you don’t understand at a price that assumes everything will go perfectly.
Volatility is simply the market changing its mind.
One of these can wipe out your account, while the other is your opportunity!
Most traders spend their careers fearing the wrong thing
Know what you’re buying and dance with volatility
English
Relentless give up.. Oil up, rates up, stocks down. A short-seller's paradise!!!
English
Polvans retweetledi
Polvans retweetledi
$DELL
> $157 when I wrote this
> $180 today
The market figured it out.
Polvans@Polvah
The $SMCI collapse isn’t just a scandal. It’s a massive wealth transfer and $DELL is the biggest recipient. Let me break it down. $SMCI was a great business with broken management. $12.7B revenue in Q2 FY26. +123% YoY. First to market with $NVDA B200/GB200 platforms. Aggressive pricing, fast execution. But the margins told a different story: > Gross margin: 6.3% (down from 11.8% a year earlier) > Operating cash flow Q1 FY26: -$917M They were buying revenue. Fast growth, cash burn, margin compression. A high-wire act that works only as long as trust holds. Trust didn’t hold. On March 19, the DOJ unsealed a federal indictment charging 3 $SMCI insiders, including co-founder Wally Liaw, with routing $2.5B in $NVDA powered AI servers through Southeast Asian shell companies into China. Fake documents. Dummy servers. Federal criminal case. And this is $SMCI THIRD major scandal in 6 years: > 2020: SEC settlement for accounting violations > 2024: Hindenburg report + auditor resignation > 2026: Federal criminal indictment of a co-founder At some point, it’s not bad luck. It’s culture. The day $SMCI dropped -33%, $DELL rose +8%. Enterprise customers, AI labs, neoclouds, sovereign AI projects, they all had to answer one question to their boards: “Are our servers linked to a DOJ investigation?” Nobody wants that answer to be yes. So they pivot. Fast. And $DELL is exactly where they pivot to. The $DELL numbers and they’re extraordinary: FY2026 full year: > $64B in AI server orders booked > $25B shipped > $43B backlog entering FY2027, signed business, not forecasts > Total revenue: $113.5B (+19% YoY), a record Q4 FY2026 alone: AI server revenue: $8.95B (+342% YoY) > Operating cash flow: $4.67B (+699% YoY) FY2027 guidance: > $50B in AI server revenue, double FY2026 > Total revenue: $138–142B IDC just named $DELL the #1 OEM in the global server market. 4,000+ AI customers. 8 consecutive quarters of enterprise buyer growth. The key difference nobody talks about: $SMCI: +123% revenue growth: -$917M cash flow $DELL: +342% AI revenue growth: +$4.67B cash flow Same market. Same chips. Completely different financial DNA. $DELL was competing with $SMCI on product. Now it competes with a ghost. What Wall Street is saying: > Wells Fargo: What is bad for $SMCI is good for $DELL > Wedbush: $DELL is the “most immediate beneficiary” > Melius Research: $DELL “biggest windfall yet” > Bloomberg Intelligence: “Reputation damage means risks for share losses to $DELL are heightened long term” The AI infrastructure market hits $758B by 2029. That demand doesn’t disappear because one supplier implodes. It redirects. $SMCI customers still need servers. Thousands of them. Now they need a supplier they can present to their legal team without flinching. $DELL has the scale, the relationships, the governance, and $43B in backlog already locked in. $SMCI implosion didn’t slow the AI buildout. It just changed who gets paid. The trade isn’t always the burning building. Sometimes it’s the fire station across the street.
English