Real Vision

Some investors react to the data print. Some already see the probability it's coming in high. Steno IQ just became part of your RV membership.

Andreas went into June CPI with the softest call on the street. Reality came in softer still. Consensus missed the headline by 30bps. @AndreasSteno came within 13bps, in the right direction. The models work. The calls are real.

@AndreasSteno Andreas breaks it down in full in this note: app.realvision.com/share/note/inf…

You've been sensing that something structural is breaking. Not just one industry. All of them. The entire global economy runs on the scarcity of knowledge. AI makes knowledge infinite. Raoul has been watching this unfold for years and just put the full framework in one place.

@AndreasSteno 👀

I still think the next move from the Fed is a cut

@chris_siver @AndreasSteno 💯

@RealVision @AndreasSteno The hive mind at work

@CalebFranzen 🤝

@RealVision 🫶🫶🫶

There's a chart whose highs and lows have tracked Bitcoin's almost tick for tick for months. And it's not a Bitcoin chart. This isn't a coincidence. @CalebFranzen explains why Bitcoin needs it to move next. 👇

@AssetMarketGuy @CalebFranzen let's hope they start dancing

@RealVision @CalebFranzen It seems Bitcoin has found its dance partner, who knew the market could do the tango? Isn't it fascinating how they mirror each other?

@Money_Penny @CalebFranzen always a great time when he stops by

@RealVision @CalebFranzen Always great to see @CalebFranzen on RV

@goldmembrrr @AndreasSteno 💯

@RealVision @AndreasSteno 🎯

@Money_Penny @AndreasSteno he can't keep being right, can he?

@RealVision @AndreasSteno 💯

@rvintern_ @AndreasSteno BTS of Andreas calling the CPI

@RealVision @AndreasSteno

@AndreasSteno 🎯

We didn't just beat consensus, we beat our own forecast Yesterday, our Nowcast IQ models held the SOFTEST US inflation forecast of anyone on the street. This morning, the BLS proved us right — and then some. The scoreboard: Consensus: -0.1% MoM headline, +0.2% core Nowcast IQ: -0.27% headline, +0.13-0.14% core Actual: -0.4% headline, 0.0% core We were ~20bps below the entire street. Reality came in below even us — in exactly the direction we called, on exactly the components we flagged (gasoline demolition, tame core goods, medical care deflating, no food pass-through). Why does this matter? Because Waller put a July HIKE on the table 24 hours before the print. Williams drew the line at 0.2% core. Our models said the print would come in UNDER that threshold with high conviction — and told our subscribers to position for the hike getting priced OUT, not in. That is exactly what is happening as I write. This wasn't luck. It's the same machine that has kept our subscribers on the right side of the inflation cycle all year — built on high-frequency price data, not vibes, not consensus-hugging. And the part I enjoy the most: this beat was delivered from a sunbed in Corsica. Wall Street has the PhDs, the terminals and the midtown offices. We have better models and a pool. If you want the forecast BEFORE the print instead of the explanation after it, you know where to find us. Nowcast IQ is live for all Steno Research subscribers. #macro #inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #nowcasting

The AI tools in @RealVision are really very good. The RV Brain is trained on 12 years of RV content plus general finance and the Raoul AI mentor (which speaks in my voice if you call it) is trained on my content and gives my perspectives

Three courses that make every AI mentor session more efficient: Real Investing Course: app.realvision.com/course/real-in… Cycle Investing: app.realvision.com/course/busines… Trading (Dave Floyd): app.realvision.com/course/dave-fl… Full Academy library: app.realvision.com/community/acad…

He put a couple of his conversations in notes on the platform. Worth reading: Risk Management: app.realvision.com/note/eea0e0e9-… and Sentiment: app.realvision.com/note/25804d11-…

You can pay for the best AI in finance and still ask the wrong tool the wrong question. One member figured out the difference. The framing he landed on is more accurate than anything we've written about it ourselves. 🧵

@Minamgto @RaoulGMI that's what makes it so great, it's ChatGPT for RV members, except it's also trained on Raoul's work

@RealVision @RaoulGMI So true🚀