Toad Capital
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Toad Capital
@rich_toad
💡 I help you break into equity research | 🧠 Daily story of investors | https://t.co/4UHum6OABr



Final answer: It's the same stock. MSFT/AMZN/V/MA/FICO/SPGI/JPM/BAC/HUM/UNH/TMO/DHR/DPZ/CMG all share nearly identical factor profiles of growth, momentum, quality, capital allocation discipline, institutional shareholder bases, et al.






Super Micro Co-Founder Arrested In Alleged $2.5 Billion Nvidia Chip Smuggling Scheme zerohedge.com/technology/sup…

I first learned the idea from Howard Marks' book Mastering the Cycle, but I am sure philosophers have conceptualized the same idea long ago. The idea: how the world works: everything is a pendulum. The pendulum always overswings in both directions, only staying at an equilibrium (the good spot) briefly because people have greed and fear or quoting Buffett - "What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end." This is Exhibit A here: post GFC, regulators curbed risk taking (Dodd-Frank and all), banks slapped high capital requirement, which is inefficient for a value-creating entity. Now politicians want to loosen the capital requirements (presumably to juice the economy as chatter of recession heats up because of, well, all that's going on). And don't forget it was precisely the loosening of regulation that led to the '08 GFC in the first place. Same mental model applies to the housing market (and many other things including the stock market itself): pre-GFC, overbuild and easy credit; post-GFC, too fearful to build and now structurally housing under-supply. wsj.com/finance/regula…






