Mikkel Rosenvold

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@ClausVistesen No - certainly not now. I think it’s likely that we see an oversupply of oil later this year - and I have argued that the US economy is much more resilient to energy shocks than the European

Mikkel ... I don't follow your thinking on this story. Are you arguing: a) That oil/energy prices are about come crashing down because none of this matters and the Strait is/will be open soon or b) The oil/energy complex doesn't matter for the wider (US) market because earnings are too strong/impervious to energy volatility?

Trump has restarted the war - and done so in a clever way where Iran looks like the aggressor. Will new air strikes solve this? I doubt it

@berggrennotes They will care if they antagonize the entire Global South and are painted as the aggressor

@RosenvoldGeo First, why would Iran care? Second, do you think that 20 ships each day will try to pass when this is the reaction?

This is exactly the kind of pressure that Trump wants Iran to come under. One of these doesn’t matter. 20 of these each day is untenable for Iran.

Senior U.S. official denies a U.S. ship was hit by Iranian missiles

Trump is trying to force Iran to act on their threats - and might even call their bluff. I know Iran has already been firing at ships for 2 months - but it's a whole different visual for Iran to be firing at dozens of ships of every nationality at once.

Trump is trying to get commercial vessels to run the blockade, essentially calling Iran’s bluff. If Iran fires on neutral shipping, it hands them a severe diplomatic liability and risks broad international isolation. The problem is Trump can’t compel commercial vessels to move. A direct military escort would breach the ceasefire, so instead he’s pulling every available lever (most critically insurance coverage) to get commercial ships to dare the crossing.

@SockPup93876932 Not if the alternative is to replace those troops with drones.

@RosenvoldGeo They are actually *saving* money by having troops stationed in other countries.

Very remarkable timing just hours after the Trump-Putin call yesterday. A very visible proof of the US giving up it's global superpower/hegemon status in favor of a more regionalized great power status. The US will save a lot of money, but obviously also lose power and control over European affairs - including the world's second largest consumer base and the most high-growth defense industry market in the coming decades.

@SeanR_1 @Hello_World Agree completely - great points

@Hello_World @RosenvoldGeo Logistics is the main military issue. There is no equivalent of the US logistics set up but Europe doesn't need a full equivalent, it just needs internal defensive integration. Realistically Europe isn't deploying far beyond it's homebases, maybe Middle East or North Africa

@HughBrice I agree

@RosenvoldGeo The world's power center has moved to the Pacific -- very, very far from your "continent". Europe has ossified & lost global relevance. USA needs to exit NATO and abandon Europe in order to pivot to the Pacific. Europe must finally pay the full cost of its defense Cheers.

@matthew15_40 Absolutely - but it's going to happen at some point eventually. That's the whole point here. Even if we get a democratic president - it's inevitable.

@RosenvoldGeo Trump could wake up during the night, go for a piss and change his mind on this one Mikkel, he (Trump) has lost his marbles.

@RosenvoldGeo Going short German brothels

@KKlinting @RasmusDamgaard5 Tak - vidste jeg faktisk ikke. Undrer mig hver gang jeg kører forbi

@RasmusDamgaard5 @RosenvoldGeo Uden at det nødvendigvis er nok, så er der lagt nogle planer for byudvikling ved Kildedal, Veksø og Egedal stationer.

8 år senere, og en af Sjællands store knudepunkter betjener stadig ikke andet end marker, biler og villaboliger. Hvornår begynder vi at behandle milliardinvesteringer i offentlig transport med den respekt det fortjener? #YIMBY

UAE threatened to price oil in yuan. Got a dollar swap line from Bessent within weeks. Exiting OPEC May 1.

Japanese VLCC crosses Hormuz  A VLCC owned by Japanese refiner Idemitsu has successfully crossed the Strait of #Hormuz, having departed Ras Tanura Anchorage on 17 April, according to #MarineTraffic data. The tanker Idemitsu Maru, carrying 2 million barrels of crude, had been in Saudi Arabia since late February. The transit is seen as significant by market participants, with #Kpler principal market analyst @Yui_torikata noting that Japanese shipowners have historically taken a highly cautious stance on regional security risks, making this voyage a notable signal of measured confidence.