FireFly

2.5K posts

FireFly

FireFly

@sabbas110gmail1

Katılım Ocak 2021
77 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
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Chase
Chase@0xChaseTM·
The most dangerous mistake traders make when sizing up positions Nassim Taleb explains it in 5 minutes - and most traders won't like what the math shows. Increasing your upside doesn't reduce the risk of ruin Here's what actually happens: Most traders believe this ↓ bigger potential gain → less risk of going broke The math says this ↓ Bigger gain → wider distribution → both tails grow the Winning tail gets bigger The catastrophic tail gets bigger too You can't offset tail risk by increasing upside they move together The formula: Increase σ → expand both ends of the distribution more upside = more downside the only way to reduce ruin is to directly reduce the tail Not compensate for it. Cut it Real examples: → GMO crops - higher yield doesn't cancel ecological catastrophe risk → Pascal's Wager - infinite upside doesn't eliminate the catastrophic scenario → leveraged trading - bigger position size grows both the win and the blowup equally The key insight: Most traders manage upside - the ones who survive manage the tail Bookmark and watch it before your next trade ↓
Chase@0xChaseTM

x.com/i/article/2044…

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Kyna Kosling
Kyna Kosling@KynaKosling·
Somehow not heard this Zanger video before. From September 2015, but only has 3k views in 10½ years! Interesting to hear him talk about situational awareness here. It’s not that you can’t make money in other conditions, but know when your truly fat pitch comes along. Zanger seemed truly content to just sit in cash until that big opportunity appeared, at a time when market cycles were much slower. youtube.com/watch?v=Isnbyy…
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LongevityLab
LongevityLab@LxngevityLab·
Dr. Rhonda Patrick is the world's leading anti-aging researcher. On her latest podcast she exposed the top 10 things that increase your disease risk, fat gain & aging speed (I bet my life savings you have no clue about them): 1. Visceral fat doubles your death risk.
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Lone
Lone@lonextrades·
Qullamaggie on If You’re Losing Money Trading After Two Years, Something Is Seriously Wrong “It took me two years to start making money. You’re still losing money? Well then, you need to work on your setups. You need to probably stop trading and actually start studying some specific setups and then trading those. Because if you’re still losing money after two years, then something is seriously wrong. Like for me, it took a while. I could have become profitable earlier if I had put in more effort, but I was lazy in the beginning. I didn’t know what to do. I didn’t even know what a setup was. I didn’t understand the concept of a setup. But once I started studying specific setups. Because I was so tired of losing money. That’s when I started making money. If I hadn’t been so lazy, I would have become profitable 6-12 months earlier.”
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Otavio (Tavi) Costa
Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta·
The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. At the same time, it’s trading at one of the richest cyclically adjusted P/E ratios in history. Ask yourself: What’s the actual upside you’re being compensated for at these levels? I’d much rather Invest in LatAm equities. Higher dividends, far more attractive valuations, and, in my view, significantly better underlying growth potential. open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/… H/t to @DailyReckoning
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Website Designer Nigeria
Website Designer Nigeria@webdesignerng·
Websites that feel illegal to know 👀 🌝 1. FlightRadar24 Shows live locations of airplanes. You can track specific flights. 2. 10 Minute Mail Gives you a temporary email address. It expires after a short time. 3. Hosting Nigeria Get extremely cheap domain names and hosting for your websites. 4. Temp-number Gives you temporary foreign numbers for free. 5. Wayback Machine Search a website and see how it looked in the past. Useful for finding removed content. 6. BugMeNot Provides shared login details for some websites. Lets you access content without creating an account. 7. Whois Lets you check who owns a website or domain name. Shows details like when it was created, who registered it, and when it expires. 8. Down For Everyone Or Just Me Checks if a website is down. Tells if the issue is global or just you. 9. BugMeNot Provides shared login details for some websites. Lets you access content without creating an account. 10. FutureMe Write an email to yourself and receive it later. You choose the delivery date. 11. Remove .bg Removes the background from images automatically. 12. WindowSwap Shows views from windows around the world. You can switch between random locations. 13. ScanWP Checks if a website is built with WordPress. Shows the theme and plugins the site is using. 14. Privnote Lets you send notes that disappear after being read. The message deletes itself once opened.
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Art of Life 🦋
Art of Life 🦋@Art0fLife_·
She explains the incredible power of talking to the cells of your body.
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Achilleas
Achilleas@achilleas_ghost·
At 71 years old, RFK Jr. shrunk his visceral fat by 40% in a 30 days. Most men his age are on blood pressure meds and statins. Dr. Sean O'Mara helped him reverse atrial fibrillation with food alone. Here's the protocol he followed (and how to copy it):🧵
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Esther & Michael
Esther & Michael@SuperLuckeee·
This is 99-year seasonality SPY across the 4-year presidential cycle: This is where you are: 1. Typical pattern:Election year → modest uptrend 2. Post-election → volatility/drawdowns 3. Mid-cycle → weakness / chop (you are here) 4. Pre-election → strong rally This chart shows the peak around April then weakness into Septemer. Then massive rally into pre-election year Here's 4 critical things to pay attention to (if the SPY sells off badly): 1. Rates aren’t coming down and that’s a problem The market rallied on the idea of cuts. 2. Inflation is re-accelerating at the worst time We were trending toward 2%… Now back above 3%. This traps the Fed. They can’t cut. 3. Oil + war = earnings compression If oil keeps pushing higher: Costs go up for companies Consumers spend less Margins get squeezed Earnings estimates look fine… until they don’t. 4. Cash is finally competing with stocks This is the silent shift most people miss. 4–5% risk-free returns exist again Bonds, CDs, money markets are attractive Big money doesn’t need to chase risk anymore. The truth is here, when capital has options, equities lose demand.
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Celal Kucuker
Celal Kucuker@CelalKucuker·
Ethereum 1400$☑️ 2950$☑️ 3950$☑️ 4420$☑️ 4960$☑️ 6100$⌛️ Dec 2026 10.000$ ⌛️February-April 2027 It reached resistance on the weekly chart.🚀 $ETH These values ​​are technically very likely....
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Celal Kucuker
Celal Kucuker@CelalKucuker·
Gold My Road Map 5600$☑️ 4350$☑️ 5250$☑️ 4000$☑️ 5000$⌛️ 4600$⌛️ 4200$⌛️ 3500$⌛️ $XAU $GOLD $XAUUSDT
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Goshawk Trades
Goshawk Trades@GoshawkTrades·
this Columbia Business School lecture on price momentum will change how you think about trading. he explains the exact portfolio construction behind big hedge funds, why momentum is so powerful, and a strategy that turned $1 into $41,000. 25 minutes. free. bookmark it.
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Goshawk Trades
Goshawk Trades@GoshawkTrades·
a quant from Susquehanna, one of the largest options trading firms in the world, breaks down the actual math behind the VIX. he ran their Quantitative Research Department for nearly 20 years. PhD in mathematics. former professor at UVA. 56 minutes. free. full video ↓
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Mike Bellafiore
Mike Bellafiore@MikeBellafiore·
You can’t miss the best trades. Period. Full stop. And as a trader, you don’t have time to be an analyst. Traders need to trade. And wouldn’t it be awesome to cut your AM prep time? Do you want to learn how a pro SMB trader, @SperoTrades, uses AI to ensure he doesn’t miss the best trades? In this video, you will learn how to automate an AM prep system using AI. The core lesson is how to build an "AI Trading Assistant" using Claude to build an actionable dashboard before the opening bell. Here is what you will learn: 1. The Strategy: Stock Selection Traders often spend over an hour every morning manually scanning emails and newsletters, creating a "bottleneck" where daily stock selection occurs too late for the market open [00:00]. You will learn how to solve this by creating an automated workflow that extracts: Macro Tone & Snapshots: Summarizing the Fed stance, geopolitical developments, and overnight sentiment [01:02]. Structured Economic Calendars: Prioritizing data releases by their potential to create volatility [01:45]. Earnings & Top Movers: Identifying Stocks In Play with clear catalysts like upgrades, downgrades, or guidance shifts [02:45]. Sector Themes: Recognizing broader narratives (e.g., AI infrastructure spending) that connect multiple tickers [03:30]. 2. Building your stock list with zero coding Even with zero coding background, you can learn the step-by-step process to build this system yourself [00:43]: Connecting Data Sources: Linking Claude to your Gmail to automatically scan professional research emails [08:34]. Framework Prompting: Defining a clear structure so the AI prioritizes the specific information traders care about most [09:12]. Dashboard Creation: Transforming raw text into a clean, "dark theme" HTML dashboard that is easy to scan in minutes [13:39]. Unattended Automation: Scheduling the workflow to run every weekday morning at 8:00 a.m. so your research is ready by 8:30 a.m. [15:30]. 3. The Professional Shift The most important takeaway is the shift in mindset from being a "researcher" to being a "trader." By automating AM prep, you gain the same infrastructure advantage used by billion-dollar hedge funds [17:10]. This allows you to spend your mental capital on decision-making and execution rather than data entry. It lets traders be traders. It let’s you trade at your best. The Bottom Line: Strive to be the very best trader you can be; and that begins with building a process that scales. By leveraging these tools, you can ensure you never miss a big trade again and enter every trading day with professional-level preparation. #proptrading #proptrader #trader #AI I Automated My Pre-Market Research With AI (Here's How) youtu.be/sh5h0GJzjNk?si… via @YouTube
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Matt Giannino
Matt Giannino@MarketMovesMatt·
I don't think any trader on the internet has a strategy better than mine. Controversial? Absolutely. But I've got the receipts. 📊 For the past 2 years, I've been tracking every single trade inside our coaching program. The strategy? Selling put options. The time commitment? A few minutes per week to identify valid setups. A few minutes to manage. That's it. The results? 👇 → 96% win rate → 11-month win streak (still going) → Hundreds of students executing the SAME trades → Same results, week after week Look, I'm not here to be cocky. And I'll be honest—I will need to adapt and adjust to keep this success going. But here's what separates us from everyone else: 11 months - not a single put option we have sold has lost money. Passive, low risk, and idiot proof. Compare to... Day trading? 🗑️ Garbage. Futures? 🚩 Scam. Polymarket? ⏳ Time waster. Here's the thing most "gurus" don't understand: My brand isn't built on hype. It's built on RESULTS. 💰 Every dollar my students make is a direct reflection of this company's success. Every win they get validates the system. So why wouldn't I obsess over building the best damn product on the internet? My reputation is on the line with every trade. Their money is on the line with every trade. That's why this works. If you think there's someone out there who can compete with this level of consistency and transparency... Drop their name in the comments. 👇 I genuinely want to know.
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SMB Capital
SMB Capital@smbcapital·
Most traders are focused on making money. Great traders are focused on becoming better. One leads to frustration… The other leads to consistency.
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Movez
Movez@0xMovez·
This 8 minute video by Nassim Taleb will show you how a 70-year-old formula used by quants separates top traders from bankrupt ones Bookmark & watch it. It will change the way you trade forever. Then read the post below
Movez@0xMovez

The best Polymarket quant bot for copy-trading with 99.3% win rate. backtested on 72M Polymarket trades, his strategy printed +$820K across 28,000 predictions bot doesn’t gamble. It uses math, statistics & strict sizing rules to target high-probability edge how the algo works: 1. Mispricing formula from 72M trades, one pattern stands out: traders overpay for cheap contracts in the (0.1¢-50¢) range. most of the real edge shows up in (80¢-99¢) contracts, which is where the bot does most of its trading. • formula: δ = actual win rate - implied probability bot applies this to every trade to find the edge. // 2. Expected value calculation EV tells you whether a trade is worth taking, independent of what happens on any single bet. • formula: EV = (P win × Payout) - (P lose × Cost) bot calculates it to understand if the trade is worth the risk. // 3. Kelly Criterion sizing most powerful position sizing formulas ever used in gambling, trading, and prediction markets. It tells the bot what percentage of the portfolio to allocate to each position for long-term growth. • formula: f* = (p * b - q) / b Mispricing found → EV calculated → Kelly sizing applied → enter trade. profile: polymarket.com/0x751a2b86cab5… start copy-trading the bot with as little as $10 using Ares: t.me/AresProTrading… other Quant formulas behind its algo revealed in the article below ↓

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