Sam Rainer

@JonathanRBrooks The reported data includes extrapolations that account for non-reporting churches.

A small, though significant, portion of these declines could also be related to churches not participating in reporting. Many SBC churches, including the one I pastor, don't report our numbers to the SBC. I think there are a lot more churches like us (not reporting numbers) than there were 20-30 years ago.

What's often missed in the declines of the SBC (and other denominations) is how it's largely a story of the Baby Boomer generation holding the numbers up--for now. Longform article coming on Monday, but here's one stat: "The SBC’s biggest challenge is actuarial. Among Southern Baptist adults, only 6% are under age 30, and only about one in five are under age 45. About 45% of Southern Baptist adults are Baby Boomers, more than double the Boomer share in the general adult population."

@ryanburge @MinorityOfOne75 Ryan FTW. Always...

@SamRainer @MinorityOfOne75 I've written about the UCC in great depth here: graphsaboutreligion.com/p/the-united-c…

@MinorityOfOne75 @ryanburge There's always a way to study a group, but the smaller it is the more expensive the research becomes. Likely, that's why there is limited data on them.

@SamRainer @ryanburge Do you think there’s ways to study them despite small numbers? I know Pew’s found they’re 1 of the few denominations where belief in Hell is consistently <50%. TBH that’s a hard thing to poll for many reasons, but I’d love to see a study on % of members who are universalists.

@MinorityOfOne75 @ryanburge UCC is definitely off the radar of most researchers. Would be a good case study if they start growing again.

@SamRainer @ryanburge They’re definitely small and have lost tons of members, but for a couple reasons, I’m very bullish about their survival. As a side note, my reading of the data is that while support for Dems peaked in ‘08 and ‘20, UCC members voted bluer in ‘24 than ‘12 or ‘16.

Yes, true. But the UCC is arguably the most left-leaning of all denominations and quite small compared to others. They've lost about 2/3 of their membership since the 1960s. Generally, there are far more conservatives in the pews. And, conservatives give far, far more charitably to churches.

@SamRainer @ryanburge I don’t disagree w/ a lot of what you’re saying, but a tricky aspect of this is that everyone views “moderate” differently, but with the UCC specifically, I know Burge found Harris got a solid majority of members, which is very unusual among majority white denominations.

@MinorityOfOne75 The real expert on this issue is @ryanburge. You should subscribe to his stuff if you haven't already. No denomination is "ideologically liberal." People in the pews tend to be more conservative than their liberal leaders.

@SamRainer That’s interesting b/c I’m friends with a lot of geriatric political and theological liberals in liberal churches and rarely come across conservatives there, but my experience may be unusual.

There is some truth to liberal denominations being generally older than conservative ones, but it's important to note that people in the pews tend to be conservative regardless of their denominations' official stances. It's the denominational leaders who are more liberal, not attendees. So, some conservative groups are quite young (Free Will Baptists), but some conservative groups are older (PCA, SBC). It's not as clear a distinction as some make it to be.

@SamRainer My direct experience w/ liberal churches (mainly PCUSA, UCC, UUA) is massive, but w/ conservative ones, mine's very limited. My sense is it's more the liberal churches that skew geriatric and that evangelical churches are more multi-generational. Am I wrong or is SBC anomalous?

@pastorbrianrobe The current birth rate in the U.S. is 1.6, far below the replacement rate of 2.1. The SBC, being older, would have a lower birth rate than average. One of the major solutions to our coming demographic cliff is reaching immigrants for Christ.

@SamRainer Failure to reach out to minorities is also a problem

@Brent_Hobbs Though it's difficult to project and model with accuracy, we have approximately 15 years before these gradual declines fall off a cliff. Enough time to fix the problem, but we need to implement solutions now.

@SamRainer Sounds ominous as far as the outlook for the next 10-20 years. But God’s kingdom is much bigger than the SBC.

@cmmcg00 Simple: We did not retain our children. We did not win them to Christ. Baptisms declined rapidly in the 2000s and 2010s.

@SamRainer Looking forward to it. Why are only 6% are under age 30, and only about one in five under age 45?

Disengaged or disaffiliated larger churches tend to have a greater downward pull on attendance and baptism numbers. I've got a longform article coming out on Monday, but this story is more about Baby Boomers than anything else: "The SBC’s biggest challenge is actuarial. Among Southern Baptist adults, only 6% are under age 30, and only about one in five are under age 45. About 45% of Southern Baptist adults are Baby Boomers, more than double the Boomer share in the general adult population."

@SamRainer You could be right. And certainly some are smaller. But I think we both could name some larger SBC churches that have disengaged for various reasons & are less likely to fill out the ACP.

Some thoughts on this... Yeah, membership is still declining… BUT that’s not the whole story. Here are five indicators that give me hope for where we're headed. First: Baptisms. Five consecutive years of growth. First time in 75 years that's happened. Over 263k baptisms in a single year, already past pre-COVID levels. It seems something is shifting in how our churches are doing evangelism. And that’s great news. Second: Look at where the growth is happening. The highest percentage increases in baptisms weren't in Georgia or Tennessee. They were in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa, & California. That's advancement in key parts of the country that aren’t the South. C’mon! Third: Attendance & small groups are both up & have been for four straight years. Nearly 4.5 million in weekly worship. 2.65 million in small groups. Both up over 3% from last year. The small group number especially matters. People are diving in & going deeper. Fourth (And this might be the most important): The membership decline might actually be a sign of health. Lifeway's own Scott McConnell says, "churches with four times as many members as attenders are either unhealthy or need to clean up their rolls." A more honest membership count of actually engaged believers is a stronger foundation to build on. Fifth: The real numbers are probably even better than what we're seeing. Only 61% of churches reported data. Lifeway's own research suggests the unreported churches could be hiding even larger attendance gains. We may be underselling how well things are actually going. So while membership may be down, the good news is that the members in the pews are showing up, studying the Word, sharing the gospel, & baptizing & discipling new believers. And that's worth celebrating.

@Tony_Ray__ @jrwhitehead The whole account is truly disgusting. Why it's been so hard for people to condemn Pressler and those who covered up his filth is beyond me.

@SamRainer @jrwhitehead

As far as we can tell, even after waiving attorney client privilege, nobody at SBCEC knew about Pressler — who was influential politically through 2016, but peripheral to SBC operations. Never SBC President, never an entity head, never a a board officer, iirc. And everyone agrees what he was accused of was horrendous. Allberry was the core of TGC’s homosexuality theology in the 2010s, founded a ministry central to that theology, was public about his predilection, and still on governing councils. I’m not “obsessed” about either, but there’s a reason one gets more “I told you so” attention. Nobody was arguing Pressler should be accepted despite it.

Your dates are way off. The CR continued well into the late 1990s, and Pressler's influence was well known. And yes, there was pressure from Patterson, Pressler, et al. directed at SBC entities, even during my father's tenure. To say "nobody at SBCEC knew about Pressler" is incredibly naive or dishonest.

A Hill on Which to Die was hagiography. He was widely lauded as a hero of the 70s -- but did he call your dad and tell him how to run Lifeway? Did your dad let him? Is Lifeway a product of his theology in any special way? Honestly curious there. It's my impression he was a rich dabbler, not the SBC mastermind.

@neilwatt You deserve it. Habs looked great.

@SamRainer We won 🏒🥅

School night? Who cares?! We're gonna watch the Rays win! #RaysUp

We are praying for Pathway - A Wesleyan Church in Saranac, Michigan churchanswers.com/pray/pathway-a…

What. a. win! Game 7 here we come!