Gator Analytics
666 posts
Removing the X-axis (kenpom simulation) and just showing the Upset Vulnerability Index (since that’s the variable I’m testing).
The higher the UVI, the higher the likelihood of the underdog winning the game (green bars).
The UVI for the top 4 games correctly predicted an upset, but still some games to go.
Gator Analytics@shttydata
I built an upset vulnerability index (Y-axis) that tries to gauge the probability of a higher seeded team losing in the first round. The X-axis has the Kenpom simulation probability of losing in round 1 Most vulnerable in the upper right quadrant. Very hard to backtest this so could be WAY off 😂
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Basically, it measures structural fragility of a team and uses 6 factors: pace chaos, star dependence, bench drop-off, schedule weakness, offensive reliance, and recent form decline (trending up or down). then discounts based on how big the adjusted efficiency margin (kenpom) gap actually is between the two teams
High UVI = cracks an underdog can exploit even when a team “should” win.
Stuff like trend risk is estimated with just a simple linear regression, other factors like star dependence uses bayesian player ratings.
Honestly if i had to guess, i’m probably just getting lucky and it will produce garbage tomorrow, but its fun to try 🤷
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@shttydata Are you going to share what makes this index?
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I built an upset vulnerability index (Y-axis) that tries to gauge the probability of a higher seeded team losing in the first round.
The X-axis has the Kenpom simulation probability of losing in round 1
Most vulnerable in the upper right quadrant.
Very hard to backtest this so could be WAY off 😂
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@Tyleramooney Lol dont do it! I was feeling good about it until ohio state started making a run..
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@shttydata Backtest or not, I'm running with this like it's scientific law.
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@RedRaiderGator Yeah and Illinois is super efficient on offense. Best among 1, 2, and 3 seeds
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@shttydata Only thing I don't love is Illinois' bench. They will never get tired because the bench is crazy good all around.
But, we can compete with anybody. Just gonna have to make shots. Can't go cold for 5-8 minutes and expect to beat UConn, Houston, Duke, Arizona, etc.
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Positional matchups for Florida and all South region teams.
Florida has the advantage in every position group except starting back court vs Vandy, Houston, and Illinois 🐊
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@pdxering Yeah exactly. The model is probably being a bit too generous to Prairie View A&M..
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We have our first round matchup and the model has Florida as a big favorite (roughly 31 points)
Over a 70% chance Florida wins by 20+ 🐊
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Until Florida came along in the sweet 16. That 2011 team was great 🐊
NCAA March Madness@MarchMadnessMBB
On this day in 2011, Jimmer Mania shocked everyone, dropping 34 points in a win over Gonzaga 🔥 #MarchMadness
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Adjusted tempo, efficiency, and TO% for 1, 2, and 3 seeds
The fast paced, very efficient teams: Florida, Michigan, Arizona.
The fast paced, but somewhat sloppy teams: Florida and Michigan.
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Florida has the second-highest average bench rating in the South Region, with three of the top-rated reserves.
Handlogten, Klavžar, and Brown are a big reason this team can sustain such a high level of play 🐊.
(Note: Ivisic, and some others, occasionally start)
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Florida has the second most “kill shots” (a 10-0 scoring run) per game out of all teams in the south region
They allow the fewest 🐊
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The adjusted efficiency margin through the season for 1 and 2 seeds.
Florida’s progression to a 1 seed really started in early January after the Mizzou game 🐊
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On court efficiency between Florida and their potential 1st and 2nd round matchups (Lehigh, Prairie View A&M, Clemson, Iowa).
Three different tiers of teams here 🐊
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Florida’s most likely opponents in the Round of 32, Sweet 16, and Elite 8 based on 10,000 simulations.
Iowa -> Nebraska -> Illinois
Interesting to see Illinois over Houston - the KenPom-only model favors Houston, but incorporating player-level ratings shifts the edge.
Illinois features the highest-rated offensive player and the second-highest defensive player in the south region
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