ThoughtAI
998 posts

ThoughtAI
@Thought_THT
ThoughtAI Adaptive AI Using Self-Aware Intelligent Software Agents. Telegram: https://t.co/jEETGqKlwu Discord: https://t.co/xl6qUlKYKy https://t.co/EYWW2ImihR

Announcing the ARC Prize 2025 Top Score & Paper Award winners The Grand Prize remains unclaimed Our analysis on AGI progress marking 2025 the year of the refinement loop

Finally more people are doing the math “IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending trillions on AI data centers will pay off at today's infrastructure costs” “IBM's CEO walked through some napkin math on data centers— and said that there's "no way" to turn a profit at current costs. “$8 trillion of CapEx means you need roughly $800 billion of profit just to pay for the interest," Arvind Krishna told "Decoder."…” businessinsider.com/ibm-ceo-big-te…



OpenAI’s Mark Chen: - “Meta went after half of my direct reports and they all declined.” - “Meta has $10 billion of capital per year to deploy towards talent.” - “Zuck hand-cooked and hand-delivered soup to people he was trying to hire from OpenAI.” Insane AI talent war.

Social media tends to frame AI debate into two caricatures: (A) Skeptics who think LLMs are doomed and AI is a bunch of hype. (B) Fanatics who think we have all the ingredients and superintelligence is imminent. But if you read what leading researchers actually say (beyond the headlines), there’s a surprising amount of convergence: 1) The current paradigm is likely sufficient for massive economic and societal impact, even without further research breakthroughs. 2) More research breakthroughs are probably needed to achieve AGI/ASI. (Continual learning and sample efficiency are two examples that researchers commonly point to.) 3) We probably figure them out and get there within 20 years. @demishassabis said maybe in 5-10 years. @fchollet recently said about 5 years. @sama said ASI is possible in a few thousand days. @ylecun said about 10 years. @ilyasut said 5-20 years. @DarioAmodei is the most bullish, saying it's possible in 2 years though he also said it might take longer. None of them are saying ASI is a fantasy, or that it's probably 100+ years away. A lot of the disagreement is in what those breakthroughs will be and how quickly they will come. But all things considered, people in the field agree on a lot more than they disagree on.

Ilya Sutskever just said that when it comes to AI models, we are back at the age of research & ending the age of scaling. What he is telling us is that more compute at this point won't help us get much better models; we need new breakthroughs. Not something that the semi companies like $NVDA, $AMD want to hear TBH.

>be AI companies in 2025 >spending billions on compute >racing to scale bigger >"bro just one more datacenter" ilya: this approach will stall out in 2-3 years lmao >dwarkesh: "wen superintelligence?" >ilya: "5-20 years" >wait what >companies will make "stupendous revenue" >but "maybe not profits" >lmaooo >why no profits? >bc everyone doing literally the same thing >models "look very similar" >hard to differentiate >competition "pushes prices down" >racing each other to bottom whoever solves generalization wins next era



“Why can’t Google do this” “Well they’re slow” Except you’re wrong The only path to defeating big tech is to take the Road Less Travelled








That's a wrap! 🎉 Our thread contest has officially ended. A huge thank you to everyone who poured time and effort into creating such incredible threads! 🙌 Voting for the best threads will take place in our Telegram group. 🗳️ Winners will be announced by the end of the week! 🏆 Stay tuned!


