Weiss Crypto
8.5K posts
@WeissCrypto
We are the nation's leading provider of independent, unbiased, trusted ratings of Stocks, Mutual Funds, Cryptocurrencies, ETFs, & Financial Institutions.
The likeliest outlook is that March 26 will be a local top of some significance. We say "some" because our model suggests this conflict will drag on for quite some time. That would keep oil well-bid.
Our timing model isn’t exclusively designed for crypto. It can forecast any financial asset or commodity. All it needs is a price chart. And when we plug oil into the model instead of crypto, it revealed three key turning points: Jan. 7, 2026: This is when oil’s current rally began. Feb. 28, 2026: The day the Iran War started. March 26, 2026: The only date that hasn’t come to pass yet
Upstream exploration and production companies are the most leveraged to higher oil prices. Last month, our pick was the Energy Select Sector SPDR - $XLE. It’s up 6.5%, while the S&P 500 is down 2%.
Markets only care about oil flows right now. Last week the Iranians said they'd close the Strait of Hormuz, which most of Asia's oil flows through. Oil surged. Risk assets like crypto tanked. Then President Trump said the U.S. Navy would patrol the strait. Oil sold off. Risk assets like crypto surged. Then it became clear there is no realistic way for the United States or its allies to effectively force the strait open. Oil rallied. Risk assets like crypto sold off.
Whatever oil does, Bitcoin has been doing the opposite.
Tokenomics done right. $HYPE
When President Trump announced the attack on Iran at 2:30am on Sunday: * U.S. stock markets were closed * U.S. futures markets were closed * European markets were closed * Asian markets were closed $HYPE was open. I wrote about what this means for the future of finance below.
🚨BITCOIN COULD BENEFIT IF THE WAR DRAGS ON Macro strategist Mark Connors says a prolonged U.S.–Iran conflict could boost $BTC as war spending expands deficits, weakens the dollar, and pushes investors toward alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
The majority of the Bitcoin held by U.S. spot ETFs sits with a single custodian: Coinbase Custody. That means the operational resilience of most institutional Bitcoin exposure … depends heavily on one institution's infrastructure and regulatory standing. One firm's risk management decisions, redemption activity and operational status … can generate market-wide consequences.
BTC is holding up well despite tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and the jitters we’re seeing across major indices. From $73K, we got the retest to $68K, followed by a drop that found solid support at $65K. Now we’re seeing a secondary breakout forming, which is setting up another attempt at the resistance zone.
