YeahDave

$SPX Held my nose and started to add back into the close. We may undercut this 6600 level next week, the environment is unprecedented. The 6500 level would be the next area of interest followed by 6200. Many of the stronger names/sectors have been very resilient and appear eager to rip higher. The space sector has been my bread and butter for the last two years and for most of these names you wouldn't even be able to tell there is a war or private credit crisis going on. Likely in large part in anticipation of the SpaceX IPO, but I also think the whole sector is finally now being taken more seriously. In particular I added back some of the previously sold $ASTS and increased my $RKLB exposure. For a swing play I am also adding $RDW, $FLY, $VOYG, and $LUNR.

This is the part from $RKLB's earnings that gave me the most pause... Beck and team have been very anti-hype. The community and the stock not so much, but the company avoids hype whenever possible. They went out of their way to explicitly deny considering a move into space internet with Flatellite. This space data center and mega constellation thing might be an under appreciated TAM expansion for $RKLB. At this rate, between $RKLB, $ASTS, $TE, and $ASTI, my entire portfolio is becoming a solar play...

$SPX Being asked for an update. I have nothing new just yet. I actively manage roughly 40% of my portfolio and that was dispassionately converted into cash once risk-off parameters were hit. The remaining 60% stays untouched. I am exceedingly pleased with how core positions are holding up (ex $ASTS, $RKLB, $NBIS, $TE) despite historic events. Avoiding the noise, bias, toxicity, and misinformation during the Tariff Tantrums completely changed my life. I am resting my mind and patiently waiting for another such exponential opportunity.

Crazy market. Few have been bullish despite remarkable market resilience, but all it took was one off hand tweet for panic buying. Added back a little this morning but going to wait for a reclaim of the range/MA's/momentum indicators before 100% long. No FOMO, no emotion.

Everything you said about the current state of the Navy's mine countermeasures capability is wrong. Not a little wrong. Completely, embarrassingly, dangerously wrong.... "The four ships we had dedicated to doing this we just decommissioned." The Avengers in Bahrain... Devastator, Dextrous, Gladiator, Sentry. Wooden-hulled ships from the 1980s. Ships that were pushing 40 years old. You know what replaced them? Three Independence-class Littoral Combat Ships... Canberra, Santa Barbara, and Tulsa… all three already deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet, all three operating in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf right now, today, as you wrote this little rant. Not in San Diego. Not in drydock. In theater. Carrying the most advanced mine countermeasures mission package the Navy has ever fielded. USS Canberra arrived in Bahrain in May 2025 as the first LCS with a full MCM mission package. USS Santa Barbara is in the Arabian Gulf conducting mine countermeasures operations with unmanned surface vehicles… and, by the way, just made naval history by executing the first-ever at-sea launch of a LUCAS one-way attack drone from a littoral combat ship under Task Force 59. USS Tulsa is right there alongside them. Three ships. In the Gulf. Doing the mission. While you say the Navy "is absolutely not ready for this." These are fundamentally different platforms. Autonomous mine-hunting sonar… the AN/AQS-20C… towed by unmanned surface vehicles so sailors stay outside the minefield. Airborne laser mine detection systems on MH-60 helicopters. Unmanned influence sweep systems for acoustic and magnetic minesweeping. The old Avengers sent sailors INTO the minefield on wooden boats. The new systems keep them OUT of the minefield using robots... something you call a "downgrade" And while Santa Barbara hunts mines, she's operating under armed overwatch from A-10C Warthogs out of Jordan… loaded with JDAMs, laser-guided APKWS rockets, and enough firepower to shred any fast boat or drone swarm the Islamic Regime throws at them. The Avengers never had anything like that. "We lost all of our corporate knowledge." Really? The Navy spent a decade building, testing, qualifying, and deploying an entirely new mine warfare architecture specifically to preserve and advance that knowledge. They trained new crews. They ran operational tests on Cincinnati. They deployed the first operational package on Canberra. The Navy's mine countermeasures technical division ran this transition for years with deliberate overlap between old and new platforms. You lose corporate knowledge when you do nothing. The Navy did the opposite of nothing. "Now we're running an experiment and it's gonna cost people their lives." Three combat ships, forward deployed in the most contested waters on earth, running mine countermeasures with unmanned systems, protected by close air support, integrated with Task Force 59's autonomous warfare network. That's the most capable mine warfare force the United States has put in the Persian Gulf since 1991. Yelling "amateur hour" at people while getting the basic facts of the Navy's current force posture completely, demonstrably wrong… while three ships are literally in the water doing the job he says nobody can do… that IS amateur hour.

I am not "bearish" long term. I didn't "want" to de-risk. Most positions were still well above prior lows, I took off some gains. Risk management should be dispassionate and not dependent on what I want. This could easily reverse over the weekend or really unravel on Monday. I don't have an edge right now.

$SPX 6800 defended again into the close against all odds despite peak fear and extreme bearish positioning. Having said all of that, this critical level has now been defended three times in four days and sellers continue to unload into every bounce. Still max long and chill, but if we go right back to challenging this level again a fourth time then I'll start to consider reducing exposure. My expectation would be that we start pushing away from this level.