YeahDave
2.1K posts
YeahDave
@Yeah_Dave
Space | Energy | Defense | AI | Quantum | Finance | Posts are for education & discussion, never investment advice. The market pays me, I share everything freely
Fictional character Katılım Aralık 2017
450 Takip Edilen33.6K Takipçiler
@BlackScholesMan Agree, I only use options as a hedge. Using options for a directional bet is asking me to place an all or nothing pressured bet in getting the timing, direction, duration, and magnitude of a move exactly right. No thanks.
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@Yeah_Dave Times like this reinforce my core thesis of never using leverage. I rarely use options anymore at this point. Long or short stock
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Market acting like we got a rate hike. Looking at bond yields, maybe we basically did.
Didn't re-enter. Market is out for blood regardless of news.
All I see in the flows and institutional data is a black-swan scale hedge fund and retail wipeout, with numbers that look like they did during COVID. Not exaggerating. Entire retail bases in some countries are getting erased and the damage compounds when the average person (and HF) can borrow several times their actual capital.
The fire just needs to burn out. Risk is currently undefined.
No more trying to reposition. From here I want strong proof this has played out rather than trying to anticipate it (though my gut still says we are close).
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Got stopped out of both $NBIS and $CRWV at the loss of these levels. Remarkably brutal environment. Will wait for rate decision before trying to re-enter these or grab a position in $BE.
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Rising 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields tighten financial conditions across the economy in a lot of the same ways a Federal Reserve rate hike does, even when the Fed leaves its short-term policy rate unchanged.
In his press conference, Warsh explicitly referenced this.
He noted that since the previous FOMC meeting: “Financial market prices, in this intervening period, they didn’t pause. They reacted to the inflation data in one direction, strong economic growth in the other direction, and nominal and real rates went up.” “Rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago.”
Today the 10-year yield rose and the 30-year yield climbed above 5.2%, highest level since 2007. The market is essentially doing some of the Fed’s work of raising rates.
Kevin Chen@Defiantclient2
@Yeah_Dave Can you explain a bit more on bond yields acting like we did get a rate hike? I see 2Y yield went down-ish instead of up. Thanks
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On the trading side I'm still up pretty big over the last 2 weeks, though I gave some back on these attempts to position.
Long term high beta took real damage with $ASTS and $RKLB down 60%, but both are still well above my cost basis and I sold quite a bit through the past year, including June.
Add in the boring stuff (indexes, cash) and the damage isn't too bad. Yet.
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@Yeah_Dave hows your folio fared past 1w out of curiosity...? i got smoked lol
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Had to have surgery over the weekend which threw off my plans/rhythm. Still out of sorts but working on getting back into the flow of things.
Added back to $NBIS $160's again and took another shot at $CRWV $60's today.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Took profits on a chunk of my $NBIS position here at $225. 40% in three days on my largest position is a gift, especially given the state of the rest of the market. Wanted to raise cash. My brokerage account was coughing up sand every time I opened it.
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Not on pain meds or mentally altered today (mostly just nauseous and I hate pain meds).
This isn't some heroic bottom call and I'm not slamming leverage. Still defensive and underweight equities, AI in particular. But both are at key levels and the market may be overpricing rate hikes. If they're dumb enough to hike tomorrow, these likely come off.
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Alright Korea that's enough of that.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Korea dragging us all into poverty. Looks like I'll have to add tracking Korean degeneracy to my risk assessment. Suggesting three rate hikes is insanely dumb. Doing that off the bat when the market priced flat/cuts is reckless. We're all waking up under a freeway at this rate.
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Sorry guys, it's going to take me a while to get through these. I'll probably miss some, don't take it personally.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Had to have surgery over the weekend which threw off my plans/rhythm. Still out of sorts but working on getting back into the flow of things. Added back to $NBIS $160's again and took another shot at $CRWV $60's today.
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It's case by case, and hard to guess how tomorrow looks given everything in play.
First I have to actually want the position. If I do, and it's only a question of when to click the mouse, I'd use low timeframe support/resistance ($196 or $186) or a major moving average (200EMA ~$186, SMA ~$177). The $177 area is also the former ATH.
Something like:
Is $BE above $186?
-No, and want to be conservative: wait for the reclaim before entering, cut if it's lost again.
-Yes: enter between $196 and $186, cut if $186 is lost.
Either way, losing $177 would be a sign of weakness and so would retracing the earnings gains.
If the Fed hikes, all bets are off.
Just how I'd frame it, not a recommendation.
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@Yeah_Dave How do you approach entries when stocks are up 10%+ after ER. Obviously besides being a trade, meant more if you’re looking at a swing trade after a large drop from highs like this
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Again great print from Seagate $STX and very strong numbers from Bloom $BE.
Watching whether they hold their earnings gains as an early hint of a paradigm shift. Need to listen to the $BE call, but after a 50% discount I'll look to get back in if tomorrow isn't a trainwreck.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Lightened up more AI exposure into this bounce. Don't want to see $INTC give back its earnings gains. $QQQ getting back toward my line in the sand. Meanwhile my non-AI high beta basket closed green on a rough day. Interesting... Watching for a rotation if the market holds.
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@RoadtoFatFIRE @Preetham_pp Unfortunately the data comes from paid/gated services. There are services that curate excerpts of the data like @themarketear that would be worth looking at if you are interested. (I am not paid by them or have any relationship with them).
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@Yeah_Dave @Preetham_pp @Yeah_Dave - any high-quality resources you can share around "flows and institutional date?"
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@Preetham_pp Too difficult for me to guess at anything near term. My take is that this is a historic (price insensitive) momentum unwind/liquidation event that will take time to clear.
I'll go through the flows and institutional data this weekend and see if anything useful comes up.
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Appreciate the kind words, and I get the ask. I'm trying to figure out a balance, but posting trades in real time turns this into a signal feed and that's the one thing I don't want to be.
It creates an obligation to post everything, and worse, it gets people reflexively clicking because I did. I'm wrong plenty. If you're following my entries you won't have my exits, my sizing, or my risk tolerance.
On $NBIS specifically that was a late-night risk call as I watched Asia sell off again, driven by my overall portfolio risk posture more than a view on the name. I had posted about the Asia liquidation cascade and why Asia matters to the AI trade beforehand. Shared the sale the next day when someone asked.
I still haven't figured out the right balance.
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Honestly you crush it most times. The only thing if I were to say that would help me and I get if it doesn’t work for you but when you make trades telling us a bit sooner. I think on the $NBIS trade you mentioned you got out after it had already dropped a bunch, would’ve helped understand why instead of us hearing about it after it’s already too late to get to the party and same on the buy back.
I mean you’re pretty on point with your buys and sells, so gaining faster insight instead of after the move has already occurred would personally be helpful.
Appreciate your insight either way!
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Seeing a lot of people getting wiped out & my DMs are a mess. Not sure how best to help & I'm open to reasonable suggestions.
Also wondering if I'm contributing in any negative way, which is the furthest thing from what I want. Would rather not post at all if that's the case.
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@Yeah_Dave You are contributing positively. You're always posting creative takes that help me think about investing. The issues people are having are not related to people like you.
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From my trading/risk management standpoint, a $QQQ close below these levels would have me pause any further adds and get more defensive until reclaimed.
Not chasing the first bounce let me take profits into it instead.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Lightened up more AI exposure into this bounce. Don't want to see $INTC give back its earnings gains. $QQQ getting back toward my line in the sand. Meanwhile my non-AI high beta basket closed green on a rough day. Interesting... Watching for a rotation if the market holds.
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