Fat Shot Drug

Presented at #ACC26: Among patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, targeting an LDL cholesterol level below 55 mg per deciliter led to a lower 3-year risk of cardiovascular events than targeting a level below 70 mg per deciliter. Full Ez-PAVE trial results: nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… Editorial: Paving the Road toward Targeted Lipid Lowering nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… @ACCinTouch

Dan wrote a good piece, but I see things differently on a few important points. 1. Buyer resistance to smartphone memory price hikes is largely confined to legacy memory like DDR4 — not memory broadly. This distinction matters. It's true that some buyers have recently pushed back on price increases, but the target of that resistance has primarily been legacy memory like DDR4. The market has been behaving rather abnormally of late. At one point, legacy memory like DDR4 was actually trading above DDR5 in price — a genuinely strange phenomenon. That distortion has since moderated as DDR5 prices have risen, but the spike at the time was difficult to explain through normal demand alone. According to industry sources, a significant portion of the DDR4 price surge was attributable to Chinese stockpiling. That's what gave smartphone OEMs the room to respond — by downgrading specs on entry-level devices or trimming production volumes. In other words, there was flexibility on the legacy side. DDR5 is a different story. As I noted in an earlier post, smartphone and PC makers accepted substantial DDR5 price increases in Q1 of this year, and even into Q2. The implication is clear: DDR5 is not a negotiating target right now — it's closer to an essential input that buyers need to secure even at a premium. What's more, flagship products built around DDR5 aren't easy to spec down. At most, a spec freeze is on the table. I've also heard some buyers say they simply can't keep absorbing additional costs on legacy memory. What I failed to account for was that most market participants weren't drawing a clear enough distinction — that this dynamic was specific to legacy — and I didn't anticipate that gap in understanding. 2. Repeating a familiar playbook and adapting to structural change are two different things. Dan portrayed investors who reflexively sell on spot price declines as sophisticated. I'd disagree. Memory companies are no longer operating the way they used to. If anything, they're moving toward a model closer to what TSMC does — building out capacity after securing advance paymets and long-term demand visibility from key customers. Just a few days ago, Korean media reported that Samsung is in discussions to pursue prepayment-based agreements with the likes of Microsoft. And yet the market still treats memory companies as textbook cyclicals. Even as contract structures and demand visibility that resemble TSMC's begin to emerge, the Big 3 trade at valuations that remain absurdly cheap by comparison. Repeating the old playbook in a changed environment isn't sophistication — it's a failure to price in structural change. I'm well aware of the counterargument. LTAs existed in prior cycles, and many were torn up when downturns hit. But the memory companies know that better than anyone. There's no reason to think they don't want TSMC-like valuations. And precisely because of that, the incentive to avoid repeating the old pattern — overcapacity that destroys their own cycle — is far stronger than it's ever been. They're working considerably harder than most people realize to pursue disciplined expansion rather than reflexive overbuilding. It's disappointing to see so many participants still running the same old framework, watching spot prices tick on a screen rather than paying attention to how the industry itself is changing on the ground.

Genuinely no reason to do this other than out of cruelty. If someone did this to us we would be calling on NATO to nuke them.

It was the coldest winter in Boston in 23 years and the warmest ever in Denver. Crazy!

Big "team of destiny" vibes for Purdue. They've been here before, great PG, tons of experience and Matt Painter is due to win one.

TIL the Mag7 are a bunch of shitcos and going out of business $META $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN

Arizona is flying in the second half. I’m not sure anyone can keep up with a team playing like this. They’re probably winning the national championship

Jeff Bezos’ opinions page. Fantasy land that will cost American lives.

SCOOP: Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Digital advertising revenue for Google, Meta, and Amazon is expected to grow by over $400bn by 2030 - BofA

I think every investor should read this letter from Jeff Bezos when Amazon's stock fell -80% back in 2000. It will teach you a lot about emotional discipline & irrational markets:

We discussed the OX40 situation for $NKTR more broadly starting at ~39 minutes for those interested: youtu.be/ErXLHQkySCU?si…

From the Yet Another Value Podcast last week: “Sanofi is still kind of being stubborn about it. I think another case of two of Kaposi’s sarcoma and they’re gonna can it as well.” Let’s see what $SNY does. $NKTR waiting to see!

LMFAOOOOOOOOOOOOO

🚨🚨🚨 The 2nd case of amlitelimab (OX40) induced Kaposi sarcoma was just disclosed by $SNY today at AAD. Somehow $NKTR is still in the double digits…*surely* the complete death of Amlitelimab would change this? Up until very recently (weeks) $SNY has *still* been projecting amlitelimab to be a $3-$5B peak sales drug in atopic derm ALONE. If Amli is discontinued (as it should be) $NKTR’s rezpeg would be slated to be the next new MoA on the market for AtD, and THE ONLY non-IL4/13 biologic besides the ineffective Nemluvio (…which is still going to be a $4B+ peak mega blockbuster despite its lack of efficacy……..) Right now, $NKTR’s efficacy vastly exceeds nemluvio’s and beats OX40’s by a healthy ~10% delta. All of that WITHOUT causing cancer. $3-$5B peak for OX40??? What’s $NKTR worth? OH! And that’s just the sales projections for AtD…I expect that soon the market will wake up to the fact that Rezpeg is a legitimate drug for alopecia areata too, which currently seems to be priced totally out of the stock. IMO $NKTR already went into the weekend the most mispriced name in my book. Now the death knell for OX40 is coming into view. $NKTR is *CLEARLY* the biggest direct beneficiary of this in the entire market. As always, I’m biased, but I’m just mind blown that this isn’t already a $100 stock. Let’s see if the market starts to accept that OX40 is finally done for. That could be explosive news for $NKTR.

Faster compounds: $AAOI - 10x revenue ramp from optical transcivers h2 2027 $NBIS - 10x revenue ramp Q4 2026 $ARM - 5x revenue growth from their new AI CPU $MRVL - 2-3x revenue growth from $MSFT Maia Ramp. $AVGO - Long hyperscaler ASIC $LITE - Long OCS / Google TPU Win Semi - Foundry exposure to frontier industries $TSEM - Long photonics, backlogged SK Hynix - Memory exposure, extreme operating income ramp With some barbell exposure away from Hyperscaler capex aside from Amazon: $VNP - Long term rare earths for Western Supply chains $NEO (TCX) - Robotics Supply chains $AMZN - Robotics/AI cutting opex $CRCL - Stablecoin long $RDDT - Ridiculously high profit $GLD - Safe Hedge $IBIT - Halving 2028 $CVX Calls - Oil Hedge And maybe long term (you know it's coming): $INTC / $AMKR- Made in America supply chains $SOI - Silicon Photonics / CPO substrates. $RKLB - Long term call on Space industry Then pick one or two small cap moonshots: $SIVE - CW Laser Chokepoints or $IQE for Landmark rerating on restructuring were my two favorites. There's others I've mentioned like $AEHR for testing or $VPG for Optimus. How I actively manage my own stuff from $AXTI and others is a lot different risk profile than what others should do. Going full port into high-beta in this macro environment is not the best idea.

$crdo $nvda

🚨 $CRDO is quietly building one of the most disruptive optical roadmaps in AI networking — and the street is starting to catch on. Mizuho ($200 PT, Outperform) just dropped their OFC conference takeaways and the bull case is getting stronger: ⚡ ALC (Active LED Cables) with Near-Packaged Optics are being sampled by cloud hyperscalers for 10-30m reach — a direct threat to CPO. Supply chain is being stood up right now, no issues. 💰 Zeroflap Optics (ZFO) could generate ~$1,000 in content per GPU-switch connection. Multiply that across next-gen AI clusters and the numbers get big fast. 📈 2027 is the inflection year. NVL576 ramp with key customers = 6x+ unit uplift + 30-40% ASP expansion at 1.6T speeds vs. today’s 800G. That’s not incremental — that’s a step function. The TAM expands to $5–10B as CRDO moves up the optical stack, while the core AEC business stays dominant through 2030+. CRDO is positioning to own the connectivity layer of the AI infrastructure buildout. Still early. Clock is ticking. 🔮 $CRDO $NVDA $AVGO Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

$NVDA H100 rental prices have climbed to $2.59 per hour which is the highest spot rate in 18 months. Not bad for a chip architecture that was announced four years ago.