Blueprint.

The CRASH is imminent! - The End of the US Real Estate cycle - 18.6 Year Cycle. 📉🏘️ The 18.6 year US real estate cycle is coming to its end. This cycle has played out over 200 years and will most likely continue, as that is what cycles do, until one day they break. There will be a point in time when this cycle will no longer play out as anticipated. But so far the market has proven it is something to follow. 🏛️The housing market, or what it actually is, the land market, is what drives the global economy. The real estate market value is close to 400 trillion US dollars. Almost 4 times more than the second largest asset in the world, which is oil at around 110 trillion. When the real estate market goes down in value, people take less risk as their safe haven no longer increases in value. There are a lot of reasons why the real estate cycle is ending, not only based on the 18.6 year cycle. If you take a look at Nonfarm Payrolls you can see that the job market is starting to slow down. Jobs are still being created, but not at the same pace as before, and that shift is important. The real estate market depends heavily on people having stable income. When payrolls start rolling over, even slightly, it means fewer people can afford homes, and eventually that pressure builds up. 📈At the same time, the US10Y has been high, and it is looking like it wants to go higher from here. This directly impacts mortgage rates. When the 10 year yield goes up, borrowing money becomes more expensive, which means monthly payments on houses increase a lot. Even if prices stay the same, fewer people can afford to buy. This slowly drains demand from the market. Another thing that has grown a lot in recent years is the Private Credit Market. This is basically lending happening outside of traditional banks. It has been a way to keep money flowing into the system, especially into businesses and real estate. The problem is that a lot of this debt is tied to higher interest rates today. If companies or property owners can’t refinance or handle the higher costs, it can lead to stress, defaults, and forced selling. It doesn’t always break instantly, but it adds pressure under the surface. In the final phase of the 18.6 year cycle, things usually don’t just collapse right away. First, you often see a push higher in certain areas. Commodities start to move, inflation picks up, and assets like oil tend to spike late. That’s often one of the last signals before things turn. We are already seeing parts of this with agriculture starting to move, which likely reflects rising inflation pressures. After that phase, the pressure starts to show more clearly. Housing activity slows, jobs weaken, and debt becomes harder to manage. Then eventually, the market rolls over. Not always all at once, but in a sequence. 💸When the real estate cycle ends, there is almost no asset that won’t go down. There is no safe haven. Not gold, not silver, not Bitcoin. Everything tends to sell off hard, at least in the initial phase. The dollar will most likely be the best place to sit. The narrative will likely be that you should move into gold during a recession. It might also be that wars have ended and that there is nothing to worry about anymore. Don’t fall for it. That’s why this phase is important. It’s not just about prices going up or down, it’s about understanding what is happening underneath the surface. 📊It is important to point out that when the real estate market tops, the stock market usually tops around 1 year after. Keep in mind this does not have to play out the exact same way, but if it does, we might see a stock market top around October this year. It could also be the case that we have already topped. It is incredibly hard to know where the top will be, and no one can predict it. If the top is not in, I expect a strong rally that will be aggressive and volatile. When will this happen? To begin with, I think we get a bounce from current levels. We might go down a few percentages more, but not much more than that. Then we get a rally for a few weeks. Whether this turns into a larger rally, I don’t know yet. To me, it is more likely that we rally for a few weeks, then top out and continue down. Sometime during June or late summer, we could start the bigger rally, if the larger top is not already in. 📌Anyhow, the markets have been going up for many years. You can see that almost every index has made gains of 50–100% over the past few years. I have been a strong bull since 2022 and became more cautious in 2025. Now I am definitely leaning more bearish, as almost everything from the ending phase of the 18.6 year cycle has played out. In the end, regardless of how this last rally (if we get one) plays out, I think the market is very likely to go down over the coming years. Yes, years. I don’t expect a huge catastrophic drop any time soon. I think that will occur later, more likely 2027–2028. I think the stock market could find a bottom around 2029. There will be volatile periods, sideways periods, and bear market rallies along the way. 🎯The downside targets are based on historical drawdowns, where the average is around 50% from the top. Sometimes less, sometimes more. It is also based on areas where a lot of volume has taken place, along with Fibonacci and VPVR levels. Of course, these targets do not have to be met, and they do not need to happen exactly in January 2029 either. But it is my estimate of where things could be heading. 💰When we get closer, you can start to DCA in. But until then, I don’t see a reason to do so. Regarding Bitcoin, and its 4 year cycle, I do think it is possible that it bottoms earlier than expected. It is supposed to bottom in October this year, but since many people expect this, I think it could happen earlier. I also think we may not see a new ATH from that low. If the short-term rally becomes extreme, it could still happen, but most likely not. So what am I saying? I don’t think Bitcoin will see a new ATH until much later, maybe 2029–2030. Whether it will ever see a new ATH again is also a question, and only time will tell. I am still very bullish on other blockchains like ETH, SOL, and other protocols. But these will most likely not see new ATHs for several years. What most people have learned over the last 15 years is to DCA into the S&P 500, funds, or ETFs. This has worked for a long time and will likely continue to work over the long term. But if you expect to be in profit within 5 years by DCA’ing every dip from here, I am not sure that will be the best approach. There will always be people saying “buy the dip” and “buy the fear”. And yes, it has worked many times. But sometimes, it’s better to wait. That’s at least how I see it. ⌛️Things almost always take longer to play out than expected. tradingview.com/chart/SPX/iAqY… …tate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/18-point-6-pro… #crash #realestate #sp500 #btc #nasdaq #macro

200 Daily MA tested and rejected for $BTC. All targets hittted. Chance of downside is higher than upside. Lets see how this all plays out. But according to my analysis we are still in a bear market and the bear market bounce have just been completed.

@ChristianSotoNJ @jasonpizzino You're full of shit, Usually Daily MA 200 get tested in the bear market bounce. And it havent been tested yet, 800 points away, After it have been tested its time for downside.

@jasonpizzino I thought you said you wanted a 200d EMA close? Now you got it… Now it’s other things. Cool

Crypto Clarity Act Senate Meeting scheduled for My 14th 2026. Liquidity collapsing. Bitcoin search vol. non-existent. Price ranges declining. Resistance overhead. Has this all been a "buy the rumour" rally? Only three more days until we have the facts. Until then, we speculate.

@notjeffersonx @jasonpizzino Remind me in 2 months

@jasonpizzino calls it a bear market, doesn’t realize we are still in the same cycle as before. Unfollow this idiot.

Bitcoin is squeezing as much as possible out of bears and the bulls on its first real test of the 200D MA this bear market.

@EdgarasEdi40248 @jasonpizzino If you actually follow the cycle you know it ends now or next year, Jason been a bull all in to end of 2025

@jasonpizzino Calling this for the last 5 years, one day u will be right

History is About To Be Made (Peak 18-Year Cycle) youtu.be/W81evjc340Q?si…

With that said, And how I believe the markets eventually will roll over to set a new bottom to start the new cycle. It is crucial to always be active. If you are in my lounge Night Owls you should be positioned in both OG Asteroid and SPCX by now. How they will perform is always up to the market. But I do believe these two narratives can become a huge success. You already seeing it on the OG Asteroid. There are other projects that are also interesting in the market. You can also see utility havent had a run at all. If it comes now or later I let be ontouched but it will definetly come. Just because BTC corrects doesnt mean that you cant be active and you cant hold projects. As no one can see the future it is always good to be exposed. Thats up to everyone on their own. Im not putting out updates how I see the market for others to dump their bags and try to buy the bottoms. I analyze markets overall to have a better view of what could come or not come. Ive been wrong many times, and been right even often. But what is most important, especially in crypto is to be active and research and connect. There are is always opportunity, every single day. Most of the time the opportunity is not as good as other times. Therefore its better to not buy everything you see, but to observe and try to understand the market and what narratvies might be hot. You dont have to buy stuff daily. You can buy stuff once a week and still have a huge success. Everything comes down to experience. I like to buy into narratives before they are even relevant. I can buy into narratives that are not hot, but I expect them to be 6 months later. Sometimes im right, Sometimes im wrong. But this is the strategy I like the most. Also buying into OG tickers on mostly ETH is very important, As I do see these to flourish in the future. Especially if ETH remains relevant the next coming 10 years. I do think that OG memes will perform extremely good and will be extremely attractive.

@DaddyD3G3N @nobrainflip I asked which data. Its just talk, Nothing else.

@BlueprintMacro @nobrainflip Economic data. It’s free. Good luck with your 50k hopes.

Question for anyone bullish on $BTC here: Name the catalyst. A specific event the market is front-running. Last bull had many: ETFs, pro-crypto government, halving… Price doesn’t move on what is. It moves on what’s coming. Bulls end when it can’t get any better. Bears end when it can’t get any worse. Right now nobody can tell you how it gets better. Everybody can tell you how it gets worse. That’s not a bottom. That’s the middle of a transition.

@hbarthechosen1 @nobrainflip I am not sure you understand. Check the chart. That should tell you enough.

@BlueprintMacro @nobrainflip You really believe that ending this disaster of war would be bad for risk assets?

@bariksis @FiatisF00lsgold Youre talking about "bears". I am a bear.

@BlueprintMacro @FiatisF00lsgold My friend, if it makes you feel any better, I wasn't talking about you.

If you missed the $60K low, lean into this experience and recognize the feelings you had. The next time (or 3 around), you'll learn to draw your own conclusions and trust your own instincts instead of every random TA account drawing squiggles on a chart.

@hbarthechosen1 @nobrainflip What would I be joking about?

@BlueprintMacro @nobrainflip You’re joking right?

Are you ready or will you follow retail?

Very close.

@hbarthechosen1 @nobrainflip Better? Bitcoin only went up since the war started. What do you think happens when it ends?

@nobrainflip It can get better by the war sending, rate cuts, crypto bill passing, etc..

@DaddyD3G3N @nobrainflip Whats the "data" ? 😁 50k first my friend.

@nobrainflip 🤦🏻‍♂️ bro.. I expected better from you. If you can’t see what’s coming then idk what to tell you, the data is all public. It just takes a little EFFORT to read it. Risk-On is right around the corner. Look at the data. Unless you really don’t know anything about finance.

@bariksis @FiatisF00lsgold Wheres the cope? I and many others called the bottom at 60k, bought and rode it up here. It will most likely drop from current areas and the next target is 50k. Idk who is coping. This was all planned. Atleast for me. 80k target was set 2 months ago.

@FiatisF00lsgold The bears were a lot more convincing last cycle. They got very lazy this cycle in all honesty. Always a red flag when every single bear posts the same charts, same lines and same reasoning. Now all I see is cope from them 😅

@Sykodelic_ Comment section prove youre wrong. As most people tend to agree. Do the opposite of the herd.

This is why the next move will be huge. The vast majority of investors still just see this as the same 4 year cycle bear market. It’s not. If you look deeper it is obvious, yet no one seems to be able to see it. This has been a mid cycle correction within a longer cycle that has been lengthened by the macro/business cycle. And now that business cycle is well into expansion. The next major move will leave everyone blindsided as to wtf is happening because it will break every idea that they held true about bitcoin cycles. The 4 year cycle never mattered… It was always, and still is, the macro cycle. And that is pushing aggressively higher. The overweight short positioning that is convinced of 4 year cycle will be the fuel that sends us god candling fairly soon. And it will be a sight to watch. People always say “imagine the smell”… Well the smell will never be more insane than when this unfolds. It will be chaos.

@ITKCrypto23 @jasonpizzino Very accurate

"i tOLd yOu tHe LOw wAs iN!" To be clear (again), it's not a dig at the humble BTC investors. This is for the folks that claim they bought the low but their average price is trash because they bought all the way down. The game is about making profits and protecting capital. Those that don't understand this simple truth will always go broke. That's a guarantee. It's baked into the game.

@0xresurekt @Nicholasedxc @jasonpizzino So how clueless will you be when we nuke to 50k the coming months?

Because it's an "invalid reason" The same reason that made him sell the top, is the very same reason that made him miss the bottom So it's self-defeating That "invalid reason" made him think he knows what he is doing, when in reality, he is completely clueless So he should have just hold the whole way

Bears have now become bulls, Bitcoin have reached out 80k target we put out when #Bitcoin was bottoming months ago. I think it is possible to see a touch of the daily 200 MA, This is something that Bitcoin have tested in every single bear market. You can see the bearish divergences on the daily chart compared to RSI, You can also see the overall structure which is a ascending channel, this is bearish in general. As I always say, dont do leverage. Buy or sell spot. 50k $BTC is still the target.

How do I know the Crypto Market Is Topping? 80k $BTC target was set 1 month ago when the war started during Max fear. Now we are very close to it. Market is looking good. People that left the past months are now back = Top signal. OGs pumping, People searching to pump the next after the next, Using the "OGs" as a narrative , Basicly pumping and dumping to extract as much as possible. Its not builders who run, Its not utility that run, its pure dead projects that had no value earlier and now for a sudden they have? No they will go to zero again. For how long can we continue? Max 3 weeks imo, Most likely 1. Follow the stock market. The chart, Not news. SpaceX have the biggets IPO in history in 2 months. It will be one of the top most valuable companies on earth. If you know Optimus, Grok etc, These went to several hundreds of millions on ETH. Elon narratives belong on ETH, thats just how it is in my opinion. Ofc Some could fit on DogeOS once that launches. But in general. We have coins and it totally depend on the ticker of the company. But so far SPCX seems to be the winner. Polymarket odds jumped from 60 to over 70% today that the SPCX will be the ticker of SpaceX. Now. We have two coins on ETH. One named SpaceX and SPCX ticker and one named SpaceX4200 and ticker SPCX. These two are the OG contracts of each named/ticker. I think both can run, 4200 already ran quite well and it have a better team and its more fun. SpaceX is more professional like most of the Elon plays have been. The exact name have usually mattered more to a Elon narrative. So lets see how it plays out, One of them sits at 100k and one of them at 1.5m. If the ticker is SPCX these gonna run HARD. minimum 100x for the 100k and 10x for the 1.5m is what I think. Then you have Asteroid. The OG ticker which we called at 50k market cap in the Night Owls which went to 5m few hours later. This is the biggest narrative ive ever seen in crypto. Being the OG here against the cabal at 150m is extremely bullish. Price can absolutely go down, especially if we get these extreme red markets i expect in june/july. But its a longterm play that I believe can send hard, It could even send to 10m tomorrow no doubt at all. The team behind the CTO is very good in my opnion. Dont fade the narrative.

Quite interesting read.