Carl Bagdaddy

China created IG Reels

Most podcasts are BS because they are fluffy and lack substance. This is the densest, most insightful episode you will listen to this year. @gokulr breaks down the 8 defensible moats you need for your company to be successful in a world of AI. 1. Data (Proprietary and inaccessible) 2. Workflow (Deeply embedded operations) 3. Regulatory (Licenses and contracts) 4. Distribution (Exclusive proprietary channels) 5. Ecosystem (Third-party platform reliance) 6. Network (Marketplace liquidity density) 7. Physical (Infrastructure and atoms) 8. Scale (Low cost through volume) (Links below)

My highest conviction plays and where I think they go. Space: $ASTS — $86 today. Starlink implied at $1.17T. Same category, better business model. Carriers pay them, not compete with them. Full constellation by end of 2026. Price target: $500+ AI Infrastructure: $NBIS — $112 today. $20B+ contracted backlog. Microsoft, Meta, NVIDIA all in. 5GW deployment target by 2030. Q4 revenue up 547%. Price target: $600+ Defense: $EOS.AX — A$11.74 today. A$10B+ pipeline barely converting. Europe rearming with €800B. The only exportable laser weapon outside the US and Israel. Price target: A$40+ $KRKNF — C$10 today. 8 subsystems per hull post-Covelya. Anduril ramp not started. NASDAQ uplisting coming. US institutions locked out. Price target: C$30+ Photonics: $AAOI — $97 today. CEO guiding $378M per month in orders by mid-2027. Full year 2026 revenue potentially exceeding $1B. Still trades at a fraction of peers. Price target: $400+ $LITE — $622 today. NVIDIA invested $2B. S&P 500 added March 23rd. 800G and 1.6T is where the entire AI buildout is going. Price target: $1,500+ Energy: $BE — $135 today. Oracle, Brookfield, AEP all signed. AI data centers cannot wait for the grid. Bloom drops power on-site in months. Price target: $400+ Defense Batteries: $AMPX — $11 today. NDAA locks out Chinese batteries from DoD starting 2026. 2x energy density. Institutions loading. Price target: $50+ NFA. These are my targets based on full execution of what is already in front of each company.

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/7f1DdK… Youtube: youtu.be/2wdsNwPUCgQ?si…

Every great CEO walks the factory floor If you're not getting your hands dirty, don't be surprised when things fall apart I learned this while making $10.50/hour at Home Depot Every 90 days, the district manager would show up with a white glove. Checking storage racks. Shifting pallets of cement. Testing if our inventory was accurate The week before his visit? Pure chaos. We'd scramble to groom, organize, and price everything correctly That's when it hit me: The only reason we kept standards was because someone checked Fast forward to AppSumo at $40M Every Monday, I blocked 30 minutes. Non-negotiable My digital factory floor inspection: - Open 5 random support tickets - Test the products we were launching (actually buy and use them) - Review ad performance line by line - Find ONE thing working and ONE thing broken per department - Slack both observations immediately The team thought I had eyes everywhere Here's what they didn't know: I was terrified of becoming one of those CEOs who loses touch The uncomfortable truth about scaling: $1M: You're still in the weeds. Walking the floor IS your job $10M: You've hired leaders. Easy to think "they've got it." Wrong. This is when those 30 minutes matter most $100M: Your job shifts. Now you ensure your leaders walk THEIR factory floors. You walk together quarterly, showing them the standard you expect "But my time is worth $10,000/hour. Why would I do support tickets?" Because that one angry customer email will teach you more about your business than 10 board meetings Because your team's standards become YOUR standards when you're not watching Because excellence is a habit, not a memo One year, I caught a stripe bug blocking legitimate customers from purchasing during my Monday “walk”. It incorrectly flagged them as fraud. Had been happening for weeks Cost of my 30 minutes: $5,000 (at my “hourly” rate) Cost of not catching it: $180,000 in lost sales But the real cost? A team that thought nobody was watching The pattern is clear: When the cat's away, the mice will play. So be the cat that never fully leaves. Your $100M business isn't built in boardrooms. It's built in the details everyone else thinks are beneath them See you on the factory floor 🤝

PETER LYNCH’S FAVORITE METRIC IS THE PEG RATIO PEG < 1 usually means mispriced growth PEG > 2 starts to push into the danger zone Popular names right now: • $TSLA ~3.5x • $AAPL ~2.9x • $PLTR ~2.8x • $GOOGL ~1.7x • $HOOD ~1.6x • $TSM ~1.6x • $ASML ~1.6x • $NOW ~1.3x • $MSFT ~1.2x • $META ~1.2x • $AMZN ~1.2x • $ALAB ~1.1x • $SOFI ~1.0x • $CRM ~0.9x • $ADBE ~0.9x • $NVDA ~0.9x • $ORCL ~0.6x • $AVGO ~0.5x • $HIMS ~0.5x • $AMD ~0.4x • $MU ~0.4x

apparently this is what the chinese AI ecosystem thinks our grand american AI master plan is! (this is not a joke! forwarded to me by an attendee at a real chinese ai conference!)

The stripping videos out of the food delivery app may sound confusing. It is talking about the fact that all types of consumer apps even food delivery has a TikTok / reels type feed. Taking the tiktok out makes the app more focused for ai agents. 😅x.com/poezhao0605/st…

@ojaskandy Moon

We just hacked macOS to build Moonshot, the first AI agent with its own computer on your Mac! Moonshot works as a separate macOS user alongside you. 2 users, 1 mac. Join the waitlist for early access at moonshot.computer comment "MOON" for priority access

@JasonL_Capital Leaps

LEAPS are the most underused strategy in retail investing. Here's how they work: A LEAP is a long-dated call option with 1+ year until expiration. Instead of buying 100 shares, you buy a contract that controls 100 shares for a fraction of the cost. Why I use them: 1. Your thesis has 12-24 months to play out. No more being right on the stock but wrong on timing. 2. Your max loss is the premium you paid. Defined risk on every trade. 3. You get leveraged exposure for a fraction of the share price. A LEAP on a $200 stock might cost $20-30. 4. If held over one year, profits qualify for long-term capital gains tax treatment. When I buy them: - Only on stocks I'd want to own as shares - RSI oversold on multiple timeframes - Price at long-term support - IV is low (cheap premiums = better entry) - Strong liquidity in the options chain When all 5 align, that's a LEAP setup. It happens a handful of times per year, not per month. The biggest mistake people make with options is buying short-dated contracts that expire before their thesis plays out. LEAPs fix that. I put together a free cheat sheet that breaks down my entire LEAP framework - entry conditions, strike selection, profit taking, and when to walk away. Comment "LEAPS" and I'll send it to you. $VG $IREN $HIMS $HOOD $NVDA $GOOGL

Amex Centurion lounge is the best argument for gentrification.

“The CROs and VPs of Sales who struggle are usually the ones who inherited a mediocre team, couldn’t upgrade it fast enough, and then spent all their time managing around the talent problem instead of solving it. Don’t be that person.”

A Player Signals I trust more than Resumes: S tier: > automates their own work > uses AI without being asked > ships outcomes, not activity > learns new tools in days, not months > eliminates tasks (including their own) > brings me solutions instead of problems A tier: > communicates clearly > documents processes > asks “can this be automated?” > experiments with tools on their own > comfortable owning ambiguous problems B tier: > solid execution > good collaborator > reliable with clear instructions C tier: > rambles > “strategic thinker” > waits for instructions > doesn't ship > proud of being busy > brings me problems to fix The brutal reality: AI layoffs won’t hit the lowest performers first They’ll hit those who aren't adapting first

China's apps are massive even the food ordering app Meituan and the payments app Alipay has their own TikTok feature. Below is Alipay. Imagine Venmo having this own TikTok.

A Palestinian doctor at the Islamic University of Gaza advises Palestinian husbands not to seriously injure their wives, break their bones, or damage vital organs. He states that men have a right and duty to beat their wives, but “Wife-beating should be therapeutic, not vindictive.” Where are the white liberal women fighting for these women's rights? Oh yeah, I forgot they hate Trump more.

Holy shit. Wow. This is HANDS DOWN the best take I’ve heard. If there is one video you listen to today it’s this one. Every single word of this and it’s a huge “f*ck you” to @antonioguterres for propping up the barbaric terrorist Islamic Regime in Iran. Must be shared everywhere in my opinion. Unfortunately I have no idea who this young British woman is to credit her, if you know who it is feel free to tag below.

Islamic imam in Texas: “Mamdani was a victory for the Ummah. We didn’t succeed in conquering Vienna by the sword for 200 years, and now it’s 20% Muslim. We need to enlarge the Muslim population in America, just like we did in Europe.” Texas has an Islamic problem.

Glorious day for Persia! God bless DJT.

Jack, you ran Twitter into the ground, and Elon's FIRST move was to cut ~80% of the employees. In 2021, you spent $300M on Tidal. The company owned by your friend Jay Z. In 2023, you put an absolute cap of 12,000 employees at $XYZ. In 2025, you spent ~$68M on an employee party. "i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now." You had 3 years to be honest about where you are. Instead, you spent time in the jungles of Africa, talking Bitcoin and smoking the good stuff. If the Board had any balls, you'd have been replaced already. And if you had any integrity, you'd have stepped down (especially after the Twitter fiasco). Your company grew revenue by 0.3% in 2025. As Sam Altman said, some companies are ‘AI washing’ by blaming unrelated layoffs on the technology. Keep feeding yourself the same BS. You're the only one believing it.

Big Tech just committed $650B+ in 2026 capex. Here's how that money flows through every layer of the AI stack: Compute: GPUs and Accelerators $NVDA - Blackwell shipping now, Rubin next $AMD - MI300/MI400 giving hyperscalers a second source Custom Silicon and Chip Design $AVGO - Custom AI chips and networking ASICs $MRVL - Interconnect and custom silicon for AI racks $ARM - CPU architecture powering hyperscaler fleets $CDNS - EDA tools behind hyperscaler chip programs $SNPS - Design software enabling next gen silicon Memory and Storage $MU - HBM and advanced DRAM feeding AI accelerators $SNDK - NAND flash across hyperscaler storage Networking and Connectivity $ANET - Switching infrastructure inside AI clusters $ALAB - Rack scale connectivity silicon $CRDO - High speed SerDes for AI interconnect $COHR - Photonics and lasers for optical networking $GLW - Fiber and optical materials connecting it all Servers and Infrastructure $DELL - AI server systems for enterprise and hyperscale $SMCI - Liquid cooled GPU racks, first to market on new chips $HPE - Enterprise AI servers and private cloud infrastructure Foundry, Equipment, and Packaging $TSM - Manufactures the chips everyone else designs $ASML - EUV lithography, no substitute $AMAT - Wafer fab equipment for leading edge nodes $LRCX - Etch and deposition for chip scaling $KLAC - Process control and yield management $AMKR - Advanced packaging and test $INTC - Domestic foundry bet, execution still unproven GPU Cloud and AI Infrastructure $CRWV - On demand GPU cloud for AI workloads $NBIS - Full stack AI infrastructure and developer tools $IREN - Vertically integrated power and compute $CIFR - Long-term hyperscaler data center leases Power and Energy $VRT - Cooling and power distribution inside data centers $CEG - Nuclear baseload for large clusters $VST - Dispatchable power for grid demand $BE - On site fuel cells, behind the meter $NEE - Renewable capacity for grid expansion $FSLR - Utility scale solar $EOSE - Long duration storage for 24/7 uptime $GEV - Turbines, transformers, grid hardware $OKLO - Next gen nuclear, early stage but Altman-backed $SMR - Small modular reactors, longest dated play here 40+ stocks. One thesis. $650 billion has to go somewhere. Which layer are you most positioned in?