Eleni / エレニ 🇺🇦🐱

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Eleni / エレニ 🇺🇦🐱

Eleni / エレニ 🇺🇦🐱

@EleniNumber5

I am a cat. I am watching Russian invasion of Ukraine🇺🇦 (and Western Balkans &others.) ／ロシアのウクライナ侵攻や扇動工作、西バルカン、カフカス等 国際情勢全般をウォッチしています。

Tokyo Entrou em Nisan 2016
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Eleni / エレニ 🇺🇦🐱
Eleni / エレニ 🇺🇦🐱@EleniNumber5·
この19世紀のカフカス征服において、チェルケスとの戦争で、ロシアは戦術として民族浄化を選択しました。 村々は飢え、焼かれ、生存者は即座に殲滅。 25/ twitter.com/KareemRifai/st…
Kareem Rifai 🌐@KareemRifai

During the Russo-Circassian War in the 19th century, the Russian army employed ethnic cleansing as their primary tactic of war. Circassian villages were starved and burnt down, with any survivors immediately massacred.

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Arta Moeini PhD
Arta Moeini PhD@ArtaMoeini·
As expected, Trump blinked first by unilaterally extending the ceasefire without a deadline. By imposing this state of "limbo" between war & peace, Trump hopes to restore the pre-war status quo: an economic siege and perpetual threat meant to squeeze Tehran. Iran will almost certainly find this situation untenable. It has consistently demanded a total end to the war rather than a cold peace or a frozen conflict like the one after the 12-day war. This "limbo" is just the kind of scenario Iranian strategists anticipated and were warning against. Meanwhile, 40 days of war and successful resistance against US-Israeli aggressions have altered Tehran's strategic calculus, emboldening those who champion the utility of force & the prohibitive logic of the "battlefield" (meydan). ​The current status quo places a greater burden on the Islamic Republic than on Washington, a pressure that will only intensify so long as the blockade persists. Consequently, it's only a matter of time before Iran attempts to impose new regional costs of its own to break the US blockade, a move that would likely collapse the fragile ceasefire entirely.
Arta Moeini PhD tweet media
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フランス大使館🇫🇷🇪🇺
フランス大使館🇫🇷🇪🇺@ambafrancejp_jp·
ジャン=ノエル・バロ・ヨーロッパ・外務大臣はストラスブールで、国際刑事裁判所を補完し、ウクライナに対する侵略犯罪を裁くための特別法廷の設立に対するフランスの支持を表明しました。 「ロシアの指導者たちは責任を問われなければなりません」とバロ大臣は改めて述べました。
France Diplomatie 🇫🇷🇪🇺@francediplo

À Strasbourg, @jnbarrot a annoncé le soutien de la France à la création d’un Tribunal spécial pour juger le crime d’agression contre l’Ukraine, en complément de la Cour pénale internationale. « Les dirigeants russes doivent rendre des comptes », a-t-il rappelé.

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ドゥミトル・ソコラン
ドゥミトル・ソコラン@Dumitru_Socolan·
私たちの日本での在任中、タマラは何度も日本の着物を着ました。とても気に入っていて、いくつか購入もしました。昨日撮った写真で、そのうちの一つをご覧いただけます。素敵でしょう？✨👘
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Luke Pollard MP
Luke Pollard MP@LukePollard·
I warmly welcome Japan’s updated defence equipment and technology transfer guidelines announced on 21 April. This important step strengthens our shared commitment to peace, security, and international cooperation. The UK stands firmly alongside Japan as a trusted partner.
内閣官房@Naikakukanbo

Today we revised the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and its Implementation Guidelines.　　　　 cas.go.jp/jp/gaiyou/jimu…

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楊井人文 Hitofumi Yanai
楊井人文 Hitofumi Yanai@yanai_factcheck·
【参考記録】日本政府が決定した「防衛装備移転三原則」改定について各国の歓迎表明（順不同） イタリア: x.com/italyinjpn/sta… フランス: x.com/ambafrancejp_j… イギリス: x.com/julialongbotto… リトアニア: x.com/aurelijuszykas… オーストラリア: x.com/jpembassyau/st… アメリカ: x.com/usambjapan/sta… カナダ:
カナダと日本@CanadaNihon

日本との包括的戦略的パートナーとして、今年初めに署名した「防衛装備品・技術移転協定」、ならびにカナダの新たな防衛産業戦略や日本の防衛装備移転三原則の改正から生まれる相互の機会を模索できることを期待しています。

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カナダと日本
カナダと日本@CanadaNihon·
日本との包括的戦略的パートナーとして、今年初めに署名した「防衛装備品・技術移転協定」、ならびにカナダの新たな防衛産業戦略や日本の防衛装備移転三原則の改正から生まれる相互の機会を模索できることを期待しています。
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Ihab Hassan
Ihab Hassan@IhabHassane·
A horrifying video shows dozens of Israeli settlers setting a Palestinian home on fire in the village of Beit Imrin in the West Bank tonight, attempting to burn the family alive. 8 people were injured in the attack, including a one-year-old baby.
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jasper nathaniel
jasper nathaniel@infinite_jaz·
Settlers shot up a school in Al-Mughayer.
Mariam Barghouti مريم البرغوثي@MariamBarghouti

BREAKING— two Palestinians, including a child, killed and several other children injured in an ongoing Israeli attack on a school in the village of Mughayer northeast of Ramallah. This is second attack of its kind in the last 24 hours, and comes after a convoy for an Israeli minister ran over and killed a child in Hebron, south of the West Bank. Israelis are carrying out intensified and increasingly violent attacks in the West Bank with the purpose of dispossessing Palestinians from their homes and lands.

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Paolo Mossetti
Paolo Mossetti@paolomossetti·
The same day the EU once again fails to use its leverage to slow Israel, Von der Leyen states: “We must succeed in completing the European continent so that it is not shaped by Russian, Turkish, or Chinese influence.” Turkey is, for the first time, placed in the same category as Russia and China: a systemic threat, precisely as an imperialist war, boosted by religious fanaticism, rages on the other side of the Mediterranean. And this happens at the very moment Netanyahu is escalating his campaign against Turkey. How Turkey can be seen as a greater threat than Israel by the majority of Europeans is a mystery. This is liberal nationalism laying bare its entrenchment and its clash-of-civilizations logic.
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MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀
MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀@Maks_NAFO_FELLA·
‼️ The Russian ambassador to Italy was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs following m Solovyov's insults to Meloni. Solovyov called her a "prostitute," "a disgrace to the human race," and an "ugly woman" on TV. 🇮🇹 Meloni responded to Solovyov's insults: "By nature, a zealous propagandist for the regime cannot lecture on either consistency or freedom. But these caricatures certainly won't make us deviate from our chosen path. We, unlike others, have no strings attached, no masters, and receive no orders. Our only remaining guideline is Italy's interests. And we will continue to follow it with pride, to the chagrin of propagandists of all stripes."
MAKS 25 🇺🇦👀 tweet media
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Magyar Péter (Ne féljetek)
Magyar Péter (Ne féljetek)@magyarpeterMP·
Until 31 May, the Orbán puppets may voluntarily step down from their positions. This applies to the President of Hungary, the President of the Curia, the President of the National Office for the Judiciary, the President of the Constitutional Court, and the Prosecutor General. On 12 April, the Hungarian people voted for a complete political transformation. If these officials do not step down voluntarily by 31 May, then — on the basis of the mandate received from millions of Hungarians — we will remove them from office.
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John M. Donnelly
John M. Donnelly@johnmdonnelly·
Approximate estimates of percentages of U.S. munitions expended in Iran war, per @CNN : 50% THAAD interceptors 50% Patriot interceptors 45% Precision Strike Missiles 30% Tomahawk missiles 20% Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles 20% Standard Missiles (SM-3 and SM-6)
Zachary Cohen@ZcohenCNN

New: The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key missiles during war with Iran & created “near-term risk” of running out of ammunition in a future conflict should one arise in next few years, per experts & 3 people familiar w/ recent internal Pentagon assessments. cnn.com/2026/04/21/pol…

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Mario Vattani
Mario Vattani@mariovattani·
良いニュースです👌 我が国の防衛、イノベーション、航空宇宙産業における日伊間の協力の可能性をさらに高める改革です。 🇮🇹❤️🇯🇵 #技術 #GCAP #イタリア日本160周年
高市早苗@takaichi_sanae

本日、「防衛装備移転三原則」とその「運用指針」を改正しました。 これまで国産完成品の海外移転は、救難・輸送・警戒・監視・掃海（いわゆる「５類型」）に限定していましたが、今回の改正により、原則として全ての防衛装備品の移転が可能となります。 安全保障環境が厳しさを増す中、今やどの国も１カ国のみでは自国の平和と安全を守ることはできず、防衛装備面でもお互いを支え合うパートナー国が必要です。 現に、日本の防衛装備も、他国からの輸入やライセンス生産を通じ、様々な国によって支えられています。 こうした中、パートナー国からは日本が「専守防衛」の考え方の下で整備してきている防衛装備品に期待する声が寄せられています。 このようなニーズに応え、防衛装備移転を行うことは、これらの諸国の防衛力向上、ひいては、紛争発生の未然防止に貢献することとなり、日本の安全保障の確保につながります。 また、パートナー国が日本と同じ装備品を保有していれば、部品等を相互に融通しあうこともでき、相互の連携が強化されます。 同時に、装備移転に際しては、国際的な輸出管理の枠組みを遵守し、案件ごとに一層厳格に審査を行います。 移転先での適正な管理もしっかり確保します。 更に、移転先は、国連憲章に適合した使用を約束する国に限定します。 戦後８０年以上にわたる平和国家としてのこれまでの歩みと基本理念とを堅持することに、全く変わりはありません。 新たな制度の下、より厳正かつ慎重に移転の可否を判断しながら、装備移転を戦略的に推進してまいります。

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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz·
Key Takeaways: 1. No breakthrough: None of the core issues have been resolved. Iran is unlikely to enter negotiations as long as the naval blockade remains in place, nor is it expected to concede to the administration’s demands under current pressure. 2. Limited U.S. appetite for escalation: At the same time, Trump appears reluctant to return to active military confrontation. Notably, there is currently no clear deadline for the ultimatum, unlike in previous phases. 3. Pressure without payoff: The naval blockade is more likely to drive escalation than capitulation. It neither creates conditions for Iranian surrender nor advances a diplomatic resolution. 4. Strategic signaling: Above all, it appears that Trump may be preparing the ground for a unilateral de-escalation without formally relaunching the conflict. Faced with a choice between escalation and compromise, he has opted for now for delay. 5. The open question is how long the blockade can be sustained, given the underlying assumption that Iran will not back down. The strain on the international system will only grow. Iran increasingly believes it can outlast the pressure, turning time into a strategic asset. Bottom line: This is not a solution, it is a path toward deeper instability. This is a strategy of delaying the inevitable rather than resolving the conflict. For now, atleast this is still better than escalation without a clear endgame. The mediators have bought time, but without greater U.S. flexibility, diplomacy is unlikely to move forward, especially as Iran shows no willingness to retreat. #IranWar‌
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other

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Raz Zimmt
Raz Zimmt@RZimmt·
As the ceasefire deadline approaches, it appears that the Iranian leadership, led by the IRGC, is unwilling to forgo its demand for some form of concession from the U.S., particularly regarding the maritime blockade, in exchange for merely agreeing to a second round of talks. This is no longer just a matter of negotiating tactics or hardening positions ahead of negotiations; it reflects a principled outlook within the hardline circles that dominate the Iranian leadership. These actors—whose internal dynamics involving Mojtaba, Ghalibaf, and Ahmad Vahidi are currently difficult to fully discern- are genuinely prepared to return to fighting. From their perspective, the U.S. is attempting to achieve through negotiations what it failed to achieve through war. They remain influenced by a sense of achievement from the 40 days of fighting and believe that, even if hostilities resume, Iran’s capacity to inflict damage on the U.S. forces, the global economy, and the Gulf states is greater. They also assess that while Iran may not be able to sustain itself economically for more than a few additional months, the opposing side would be unable to endure for more than a few weeks. As time goes on, it seems that the influence of the hardliners, whose power had already clearly increased in recent weeks, is even greater than might have been expected. They appear to be exploiting the complexity of the decision-making process, stemming from Mojtaba’s condition and his difficulty in effectively exercising control, even if he still retains decision-making authority, in order to impose their views. It is also important to remember that this group of commanders was shaped by the Iran–Iraq War and, over the years, has adopted a revisionist interpretation of Khomeini’s acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 598 (the so-called “drinking of the poison chalice”). According to this view, Khomeini was compelled by Rafsanjani and Mousavi to agree to the ceasefire against the IRGC's position. The problem is that if this is indeed the dominant perception in Tehran, it is difficult to see how even a renewal of hostilities—and even if it entails escalation and damage to civilian infrastructure—would be a factor that changes the leadership’s assessment in the short term.
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz·
From Tehran’s perspective, entering negotiations under a naval blockade would signal weakness, not strength. Without credible guarantees that the blockade will be lifted, Iran has little incentive to come to the table. In fact, refusing talks under pressure may be perceived domestically as a show of resilience. As a result, the likelihood of talks commencing in Pakistan remain low. The problem is compounded by the fact that additional U.S. pressure on Iran may prove counterproductive. Rather than advancing a diplomatic resolution, it is likely to push it further out of reach by reinforcing hardline positions in Tehran. #IranWar‌
Ali Vaez@AliVaez

Nope! Everyone in the Iranian system agrees that there is no point in negotiating if the U.S. continues its blockade…

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Babak Vahdad
Babak Vahdad@BabakVahdad·
The initial two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States has now lapsed. - Tehran has yet to provide any official reaction to Trump’s unilateral decision to extend it. - Meanwhile, MP Khazrian (National Security Commission) says military restraint is over, warning that any action against Iranian vessels from now on will be treated as an act of war and answered accordingly. #Iran #Iranwar
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Hamidreza Azizi
Hamidreza Azizi@HamidRezaAz·
Back to No War, No Peace? 🔹The extension of the ceasefire for an undefined period – while a naval blockade remains in place against Iran – is widely viewed within Iranian debates as a highly unfavorable scenario. 🔹Some commentators even describe it as a worst-case outcome, as it effectively reverses Iran’s earlier strategy of attritional pressure and redirects it back onto Iran itself. In this situation, Iran is placed in a state of suspension – neither war nor peace – which Iranian leaders have explicitly sought to avoid since the outset of the conflict, preferring instead a decisive conclusion. 🔹From Tehran’s perspective, statements by Donald Trump and the current trajectory suggest that the shadow of war continues to loom over the country and its already strained economy. 🔹At the same time, the United States retains freedom of action, preserving the option to re-escalate militarily at a time of its choosing. This dynamic is further compounded by the ability of Israel to continue operating in a gray-zone environment. 🔹Taken together – economic pressure through blockade, strategic uncertainty, and continued low-intensity confrontation – this scenario is seen as gradually eroding Iran’s remaining strategic capacity. Over time, it could also intensify internal divisions among political factions, making crisis management more difficult for the leadership. 🔹In this reading, Trump’s extension of the ceasefire is not interpreted as a face-saving exit from the conflict, but rather as a recalibration of the war’s form and shape, which lowers costs for the United States while increasing them for Iran. 🔹This helps explain why Tehran may be reluctant to accept such an arrangement and could instead consider more assertive responses. 🔹Much will depend on whether the naval blockade is enforced in a substantive way or remains largely symbolic. 🔹A key potential trigger for renewed escalation would be any further interdiction or seizure of Iranian vessels. Such an incident could be framed by Iran as a violation of the ceasefire, potentially prompting a military response against U.S. naval forces and leading to a return to active conflict. 🔹From the perspective of some Iranian decision-makers, this may be seen as less costly than either yielding under pressure or remaining in a prolonged state of strategic limbo.
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