FractureLog

One week ago, oil was $66 a barrel. This morning it settled at $90.90. That is a 36% increase in 7 days. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's oil supply every single day. Iran closed it. Qatar has shut its gas plants. Iraq and Kuwait have shut their oil fields. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may follow. JPMorgan says Gulf states will run out of oil storage capacity in less than a month if the Strait stays closed. Trump's response when asked if he was concerned about rising gas prices: "If they rise, they rise." Sources: Washington Times, Fortune, JPMorgan analysis, Al Jazeera, March 7, 2026

Oh so we are crashing CRASHING.

Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum last night. Reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or he will obliterate Iran's power plants. Starting with the biggest one first. Iran's military responded this morning. If Trump bombs their power plants, they will close the Strait of Hormuz permanently. And refuse to reopen it until every destroyed plant is rebuilt. Oil hit $114 a barrel overnight. Goldman Sachs said elevated prices could persist through 2027. The 48-hour deadline expires tonight. Meanwhile, Trump is sending thousands more Marines to the Middle East. While simultaneously telling reporters the US is "winding down" military efforts. He said both of those things in the same 24 hours. Sources: CBS News, CNN, NPR, Goldman Sachs via Bloomberg, March 22 to 23, 2026

This morning at LaGuardia Airport. An Air Canada jet landed on Runway 4 at 11:40pm last night. A fire truck was crossing the same runway at the same time. The air traffic controller realized it was too late. "Stop. Stop. Stop. Truck 1 stop." The plane hit the truck at 24 miles per hour. The cockpit was destroyed. Both pilots were killed instantly. 41 passengers were taken to the hospital. The fire truck was responding to a separate emergency on a United flight. The controller was working alone. Managing ground traffic and tower operations simultaneously. By himself. LaGuardia is closed until at least 2 pm today. This is the third major US aviation disaster in 14 months. January 2025: American Airlines jet and Army Black Hawk helicopter collision. 67 killed. March 2026: LaGuardia. 2 killed. 41 injured. The FAA has recorded 97 runway incursions in January 2026 alone. The agency responsible for preventing this has been operating with staffing cuts and a partial government shutdown affecting airport security. The controller was alone. Sources: CNN, NPR, NBC News, Reuters, Simple Flying, March 23, 2026

Day 20 of the Iran war. 1,780 Iranian civilians confirmed dead. 13 US service members killed. Oil at $94 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz still closed. Russia still feeding Iran the locations of American warships. The Senate voted 8 times to stop it. All 8 failed. Congress never declared it. The VP said he could go to prison for explaining how it started. The FCC threatened news networks for covering it critically. Trump has still not defined what winning looks like. A senator asked the White House what unconditional surrender means. The answer: Trump will decide when he decides. Sources: Al Jazeera, Guardian, CNN, PBS NewsHour, March 20, 2026

Here is the Epstein timeline as of today. Congress passed a law requiring full transparency. The DOJ released less than half the files. NPR found 53 missing pages using serial numbers. The DOJ released 16 pages under pressure. 37 pages are still missing. The DOJ then removed 47,000 additional documents after publishing them. Congress subpoenaed the Attorney General. The AG showed up to a fake unsworn briefing instead. Democrats stormed out. The committee chair who issued the subpoena said she should not have to follow it. Congress filed impeachment articles against her. She testifies under oath April 14. Maybe. The files involve abuse allegations against the sitting president. The AG controlling the files was appointed by that president. The committee chair protecting her is from his party. The law was supposed to answer questions. It has created more of them every single week. Sources: NPR, ABC News, OPB, House Oversight Committee, March 2026

The US government threatened to revoke broadcast licenses this week over Iran war coverage. The FCC chair's exact words: "Broadcasters that are running hoaxes and news distortions have a chance now to correct course before their license renewals come up. The law is clear. Broadcasters must operate in the public interest, and they will lose their licenses if they do not." He did not name a single specific story. He did not cite a single specific error. Trump called the New York Times and Wall Street Journal "Corrupt and Highly Unpatriotic" and said he was "thrilled" by the FCC's threat. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy called it a "totalitarian takeover." Even Trump ally Senator Ron Johnson said he was not in favor of government meddling in freedom of speech. Stephen Colbert's network refused to air his interview with a Texas congressman out of fear the FCC would come knocking. A sitting government regulator threatened news organizations with consequences for covering a war in ways the president did not like. That is not a conspiracy theory. That is this week's news. Sources: NPR, CNN, CNBC, CBS News, Variety, March 14 to 16, 2026

Congress subpoenaed Pam Bondi to testify about the Epstein files under oath. Bondi showed up to a closed door briefing instead. She was not under oath. The session was not recorded. It was not transcribed. Lawmakers got 3 minutes each to ask questions. Democrats asked her repeatedly whether she would comply with the subpoena. She said, "I will follow the law" every single time. Then she left. The committee chair who issued the subpoena said he personally sees no reason for her to follow it. Rep. Maxwell Frost said afterward: "We want her under oath because we do not trust her." She testifies April 14. If she shows up. Sources: ABC News, Daily Beast, OPB, House Oversight Committee, March 18 to 19, 2026

The Iran war is 16 days old. Here is what it has cost so far. Day 1 to 6: $11.3 billion. Confirmed by the Pentagon in a briefing to Congress. Days 6 to 16: $891 million per day. Confirmed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Total estimated cost to US taxpayers as of today: between $31 billion and $34 billion. That does not include long-term veteran healthcare. That does not include the 3 F-15 fighter jets shot down in friendly fire, worth $351 million combined. That does not include classified program losses. That does not include contractor costs for 25,000 deployed personnel. Penn Wharton estimates a two-month war costs between $40 billion and $95 billion. The Iraq war cost nearly $3 trillion when all costs were counted. Congress never declared this war. Congress has never been asked to approve a supplemental spending bill for it. The Pentagon has not shared a cost estimate publicly. Every one of those dollars is being spent without a congressional vote. The cost ratio of shooting down Iranian drones versus the cost of the drones themselves: The Iran war is 16 days old. Here is what it has cost so far. Day 1 to 6: $11.3 billion. Confirmed by the Pentagon in a briefing to Congress. Days 6 to 16: $891 million per day. Confirmed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Total estimated cost to US taxpayers as of today: between $31 billion and $34 billion. That does not include long-term veteran healthcare. That does not include the 3 F-15 fighter jets shot down in friendly fire, worth $351 million combined. That does not include classified program losses. That does not include contractor costs for 25,000 deployed personnel. Penn Wharton estimates a two-month war costs between $40 billion and $95 billion. The Iraq war cost nearly $3 trillion when all costs were counted. Congress never declared this war. Congress has never been asked to approve a supplemental spending bill for it. The Pentagon has not shared a cost estimate publicly. Every one of those dollars is being spent without a congressional vote. The cost ratio of shooting down Iranian drones versus the cost of the drones themselves: 106 to 1. Iran spends $1. America spends $106 to stop it. Sources: CNN, CSIS, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Center for American Progress, National Priorities Project, March 2 to 14, 2026

JD Vance was asked Thursday what he advised Trump before the Iran war began. His response: "Those discussions occurred in a classified space, and I would not reveal them. I could go to prison if I discussed them." The Vice President of the United States said he could go to prison for telling the American public how the decision to go to war was made. Congress never voted for it. The Constitution says only Congress can declare war. Nobody has been charged for starting it. Nobody has been charged for the school. And the Vice President is citing prison as the reason he cannot explain any of it. Sources: CNN, Al Jazeera, March 13, 2026

Trump bombed Kharg Island last night. Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. He then threatened to destroy the oil infrastructure completely if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. To fix rising gas prices caused by the war he started, Trump eased oil sanctions on Russia. The same Russia that is feeding Iran the locations of American warships. So Americans are now paying higher gas prices to fund a war that is benefiting the country helping kill American sailors. Sources: CNN, WBUR Cognoscenti, Al Jazeera, GoLocalProv, March 13 to 14, 2026

Here is the full picture as of today. Hegseth disbanded civilian protection teams before the war. He publicly declared there would be no rules of engagement. He said "no quarter" on Friday, which is illegal under US law. A school full of children was struck. US forces were responsible. 1,444 civilians are confirmed dead. The US has struck over 10,000 civilian sites. JD Vance said Thursday he could go to prison if he discussed what he advised Trump before the war. Senator Jeff Merkley's exact words: "His no-hesitation engagement rules set the stage for failing to distinguish a civilian school from a military target." He is a sitting US senator. Sources: Al Jazeera, Common Dreams, Democracy Now, HuffPost, New York Times, Senator Warren letter, March 11 to 14, 2026

The US government's own response to the school bombing: Trump said Iran did it. Hegseth said they were investigating. The video showed a Tomahawk cruise missile. Only the US uses Tomahawk cruise missiles. Three defense officials called Trump's denial false. The preliminary investigation found the US was responsible. Trump's response when told his own investigation found US forces did it: He has not commented.

Before the war started, Hegseth quietly disbanded the Pentagon's civilian harm mitigation teams. These were the teams responsible for ensuring bombs did not hit schools, hospitals, and civilian infrastructure. The 2026 National Defense Strategy omitted all references to civilian protection. The experts on international humanitarian law quietly left the administration. Then the war began.

Hegseth's exact words at the Pentagon briefing on March 2: "No stupid rules of engagement. No nation-building quagmire. No democracy building exercise. No politically correct wars. We fight to win." Then on Friday, March 13: "No quarter. No mercy for our enemies." Under the Hague Convention and the 1996 US War Crimes Act, threatening to give no quarter is explicitly illegal. Not under international law only. Under American law.

Pete Hegseth said "no quarter, no mercy" on Friday. Under international law, that phrase is illegal to utter. Not controversial. Not debatable. Illegal. Here is what he actually said, what it means, and why it matters. 🧵

Rules of engagement are not suggestions. They are legal directives that tell military forces when, where, how, and against whom force can be used. They exist because of what happened in World War II when armies killed civilians without restraint. They were written into international law at Nuremberg. Pete Hegseth publicly called them "stupid."

Do you understand? We are cooked. No way out of this one.

In the Epstein files, someone found blacked out text could be revealed by copying and pasting it into another application. The DOJ had hidden it. The public found it anyway. Among the recovered content: an unverified FBI tip alleging Trump witnessed the killing and disposal of an infant born to a 13-year-old trafficking victim. Victims' names were published unredacted. Nude images of young women were published unredacted. 47,000 documents were pulled back after being made public. The law required full transparency. The redaction technique used was so basic that a copy and paste broke it. Source: Wikipedia, Epstein files, NPR, CBS News, March 2026

Feels like proxy wars + nonstop distractions are keeping us from seeing the full picture. Worried false flags could be next. Im tired of this bullshit.