Stephen

@alma271828 “I expect a short-term relief into the first half of April and another leg down, then a quick rebound and top into summer. This is how it looks to me right now.” It’s still looking the same? Thanks

Let me explain the reality of a short-term rebound, as well as why I believe the upside bands I have marked are highly unlikely to be broken... The volume of systematic selling is decreasing, and the market is underpricing the chances of a relief rally. As I wrote on Sunday, Trump will do everything to shift the narrative and sentiment in a positive direction; moreover, the spring tax refund season is approaching in the US, and equity selling by pension funds will also quiet down by April. This narrative management is also evident in 0DTE positioning. I constantly see ratio put spread selling, which creates short speed exposure in the dealer profile; this essentially absorbs downside realized volatility and thus curbs momentum. Thus, if the put hedges cannot outperform theta decay, traders will close them out, which generates further buying pressure. Alongside this, I see continuous downside zomma and vomma supply in the weekly positioning, which functions as a synthetic circuit breaker and prevents downside hedges from properly capitalizing on downside momentum. This will result in a relief. At the same time, stagflation risk has deepened, and these effects have only just begun. The market is trying to reprice the hard-landing narrative and is preparing for a higher interest rate environment in the future. Also, systematic funds will remain net sellers because the volatility environment will stay high for a while longer; since they use trailing calculations, the current higher-volatility days will remain in the calculation for a few more weeks, which keeps risk metrics high and induces a net cautious positioning. This will keep the markets under pressure. We can see that the structural $SPX levels I previously marked and are continuously defended by the market are acting as strong support, particularly the August levels right now. This means the market still believes the administration can manage the risks. However, as I've been saying, I expect another wave of geopolitical risk by May, specifically spiced up with domestic political issues and a slowdown around the AI sector (see my free post on $NVDA and $TSMC). Furthermore, let's add the hidden left-tail and kurtosis risk of the yen carry trade, which I have also written extensively about since last December. And I cannot stress enough that this Iranian conflict is not over either, while China is slowly building the first island chain blockade, and due to the information war, the market cannot properly assess the risk. These factors will produce enough extra sentiment pressure for the top to start forming. So, I expect a short-term relief into the first half of April and another leg down, then a quick rebound and top into summer. This is how it looks to me right now. It is also important to emphasize that meanwhile, Trump is continuously losing his credibility and support, which jeopardizes the entire Trumponomics system and the April rebound. Where is the money flowing? Nobody wants to invest in the hundredth AI chatbot. The money is going into what physically keeps this alive: electrical grids, server farms, cooling systems, and the stable power generation required for them (a mix of natural gas, nuclear, and green energy). A massive competition is underway for the ownership of copper, lithium, and rare-earth metal mines in the developing world. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly exiting the tech bubble, earning interest on their cash in short-term government bonds, buying defensive stocks (oil, healthcare), and waiting out the storm so they can buy up physical assets cheaply afterward.

@J_Davis132 Month end flow or Q1 end can give a good rally? Or at this point the selling took over and no buying took place?

@J_Davis132 6716 by April 7?

those wondering why i dont care to capture a 120 point move up prob didnt swing long with me last week lmao the return is not worth it with 30 VIX let them crush vix and sweep the low and then get long the picture is more clear than ever . c u next tuesday HAGW $SPX $SPY $QQQ

@J_Davis132 It would be a nice Easter present 😁

@GbStephen yes , best entry day before full moon imo

@EdgebyRS How do you determine the size of the balance? Like where is the high and the low of the balance zone?

Both Balance & Gap Rules were at play throughout this week. Hit like and I’ll drop another recording tomorrow ❤️ $ES | #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.

@assface_burner Thank you👍

@assface_burner Don’t read the comments, save your energy!

@assface_burner Anything interesting on spx?

@EdgebyRS No longs until price closes above Friday high? 🤔

One question… Were you short $ES 6,677 at today’s Open? If not, why not? If yes, kudos 🤝 #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.

@J_Davis132 @assface_burner Both of you guys are top level traders 👍

@assface_burner this guy gets it / JPM will have VIX under 23.5 just like they have for 90% of quarter end rolls the last 5 years

@EdgebyRS @inside_the_tape I guess lack of confidence most of the time

@inside_the_tape @GbStephen What makes execution difficult?

One live call at open $ES 6,562 Long (ESH) +30 Point trade to kick of today's session I hope you were not bearish right at the Open. #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next

@EdgebyRS He reads your Sunday plan? 😁

In my $ES Weekly Plan shared on Sunday… I gave you “TRUMP TACO” region (ESH) And on first RTH test you decide to short into it? LOL There’s a time and level to short. At today’s low it was not the place nor time. Thank you for your attention in this matter. 💦💦💦 #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next

@panpalobar 6500 area?

The SPX is approaching a short-term low. We are in a time window when this market could make a short-term bounce. I will be upset if it bounces, and I'll give back my profits. I don't mind if the market drops another 5% from here, because I can find many other opportunities.

@EdgebyRS I always have the feeling that I am wrong. See in one of your videos you mentioned 30 points stop for NQ, for ES 20 would be ok? I am trading MES

@EdgebyRS To be honest with you, this week I was monitoring your levels and zones more than before, I don’t know how you do it but it’s impressive your understanding of the market. What is an issue for me to engage in a trade.

@EdgebyRS You do this type of info every day before NY session?

$ES Levels are in reference to ESH. Worth a read. That’s the EdgebyRS LENS 👁️ #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next

@EdgebyRS Yes I am watching 6683 as well 😊

@GbStephen Unlikely prior to FOMC, unless there's a headline trigger. I'm watching 6,683/86 to guide

You had a second chance to short at $ES 6,750/52 (ESH) or 6,804/08 (ESM). Down +80 Points... Ask yourself the same question? Were you expecting a breakout ahead of FOMC? If not, then use the edges to fade for a rotation - that's your start! #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.

@EdgebyRS 6754 upside target, nice rejection

That's how simple today was... ESH Gap at 6,750/52 Filled Press SELL $ES Were you expecting a breakout ahead of FOMC Tomorrow? 🤡 #ES_F | $ES_F | #EdgebyRS - Clarity First / Action Next.