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This is the world's greatest thread on the Iran War 🧵
THE WAR OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Executive summary: This war was inevitable and has more to do with Iran's ambitions than anything else. There are no good military options in this war. No side will get what they want. The surprising winner of this war will be someone who is not even participating in it.
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The war was always going to happen for 3 reasons: The Israel Lobby which is a combination of AIPAC, Christians United for Israel and their enablers across media, entertainment, academia and tech-feudals.
The Military Industrial lobby and their Wall street backers and elite who left out of the tech exponential wealth creation are forced to make the comparatively easy money from imperial warcraft powered by their SUPERPACS and donations to both Democrats and Republicans.
And finally Saudi Arabia who has linked its alliance with Washington via a zero-sum solution to the region. What many people do not know is that while Israel may be the strongest US ally in the region, the US also needs a strong regional adversary to keep Israel in check and use as a piece on the board giving Saudi Arabia importance above and beyond their oil, and their wealth.
Why this war is happening now is because October 7th and some other incidents created fundamental change related to all these three reasons. The catalysts for these changes were TikTok, America First non-interventionists and the Indian Pakistan war of May 2025.
By April 2024, for the first time in history American youth were more pro Palestine than pro Israel. Despite Israeli lobby's multi sectoral power they were defeated by TikTok's algorithm. By the time they figured out that youth had dramatically had a change of heart as the pictures of carnage in Gaza by Israel poured out, it was too late. AI speed is greater than digital speed and digital speed is greater than government speed. By the time TikTok US was forced into a sale to America's biggest donor to IDF it was too late. "Israel fatigue" had begun. The election of Mamdani as New York mayor solidified the concept of "Israeli fatigue" as a thing. For the first time Congressman Seth Moulton announced he would be giving back AIPAC's money. In a first past the vote electoral democracy Israel was starting to become toxic and that was creating panic because its winner takes all and youth swing a lot of seats. The panic intensified as polls showed that Israel fatigue had moved up to Millenials. By February 2026 not just youth but all of the US was more pro Palestine than pro Israel. Only the bible belt was saving Israel and they didn't have the electoral votes. Gavin Newson the governor of California widely believed to be a frontrunner for Democratic nomination of President categorically announced he would not take AIPAC funds. If anything had to be done it had to be done before "Israel fatigue" possibly hit mid terms, and certainly before it hit next presidential election. So Iran war had to be done before November 3rd 2026 the date of the mid terms.
With Democrats clearly more pro Palestine Israel was relying on Republicans for its future. The plan was to double down on evangelicals and conservatives. But "Israel fatigue" had reached there too. Elected congresspeople and major influencers like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie, Steve Bannon, Joe Roga, Theo Von etc. were a faction of America First theat interpreted "America First" through a non-interventionist lens. They view the close relationship with Israel as a prime example of the kind of "forever war" foreign policy they voted for or were elected to end. Israel has the largest bot network in the world. India has the largest troll network in the world. Combined they could not dent the America First non-interventionists. The momentum with this action spooked Israel and its US supporters. So Iran war had to be done now in case this momentum became irreversible.
Finally, the Abraham Accords were just a cover to ally Saudi to Israel. With Saudi's wealth and especially with a strong leader at its helm it was imperative that Saudi Arabia supported Israel vs Iran. As Iran was a regional rival to Saudi, combined with the influence US had on Saudi because of its security guarantee to Saudi vs any actor (including Israel!) the Saudi position on Iran was a lock-in. Then in May in Pakistan India war, Pakistan annihilated Indian Air Force in the air, shooting down at least 7 planes, grounding the Indian Air Force for 2 days. The ability to execute a complex kill chain using a system of system approach and Electronic Warfare capability at the level of the Chinese, Americans, Israel and Russia, stunned the world. Saudi Arabia stood up and took notice. Within months a Saudi-Pakistan defense pact was announced. Suddenly Saudi did not need US for protection vs Israel or Iran. That gave Saudi more leverage and Israel less. So Iran war had to be done now in case the unpredictability that came from Pakistan, a nuclear armed country whose missiles can reach Tel Aviv in 12 minutes, suddenly becoming a major player in the Middle East would result in Israel's options shrinking.
And so we have the war.
There is a fourth reason too. It is ironically the reason that the war had not happened yet. And that fourth reason was Iran's desire to make nukes and its demonstrated endeavor to do same.
The U.S. has interests in the Middle East like it has in every region, but it has no interest in pursuing a war there. Its planners, Pentagon, experts all are united in the fallacy of a war in Middle East. From US perspective, Iran is a Middle Eastern problem, not a global one.
Iran's regional ambitions were ironically furthered by the Iraq war that changed the Shiite Sunni balance in the Middle East after a thousand years making Iran its greatest beneficiary. That boon allowed it to pursue its "Shiite Crescent," proxy networks, and expansionary behaviour. The US is fine with that within limits. Those are a regional concern, they are not an existential American one.
The sole exception is Iran's nuclear program, because of the catastrophic tail-risk of a nuclear device being used against the US homeland. And if there is one thing the Middle East, which is a classic NN Taleb fat tailed scenario, is good at, it is manifesting white swan events exactly like these. Washington's obsession with Iran's nuclear program, its attacks on Iranian territory and support of Israel doing same, and this ultimate war are all about Iran not getting nukes. The desired regime change isn't to bring Iranians democracy. It is to deal with a leader who will stop the nuclear program in exchange for lifting of sanctions and aid.
This is why Obama and others always opted for settling. They knew the fallacy of war. This was the only option that reduced the existential risk. Israel also knew this. The strikes on Iranian facilities were among other things intended to derail US negotiations to settle once again. Israelis knew that Iran was itself riven by factions and barely held together by its supreme leader. They knew the strikes would create internal pressure. Israelis were panicking hoping something would give. It did. The Iranians blinked first and that was a massive mistake. Trump negotiates with respect if you have leevrage. He does not negotiate with the weak. He plays to win. The moment Iranians offered massive concessions to US on oil and economy Trump sensed they were on shaky ground. And he gave the go-ahead for Israel's pre-emptive strikes supported by US intelligence.
There is still a chance that this was a negotiation ploy but wars are unpredictable. We have a war now but I do not see US achieving total victory.
The US has no appetite for body bags. Slain US servicemen coming home in coffins draped in American flags are a red line that will bring down the party of whichever party's president authorized that war. The US has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own. This represents a deliberate departure from Vietnam (massive casualties, domestic backlash), Iraq, and Afghanistan (occupation warfare with unsustainable costs).
Ukraine is where this was perfected. In Ukraine the US played a decisive role without committing troops, using weapons, and political muscle to shape events.
The June 2025 strikes where seven B-2 Spirit bombers dropped bunker busters on 3 nuclear sites exemplified this doctrine perfectly. The US also intercepted Iranian missiles over Syria, Iraq, and Jordan alongside its confused ally UK not only because Israel needed help, but to signal to Iran that it faces more than one foe. The primary motivation was not the defense of Israel but a signal to Iran to curb its adventurism and be serious at the negotiating table.
The problem with any doctrine that does not put boots on the ground is that its success depends on the strength and will of the enemy, and their ability to take pain. More on this later.
There are simply no good options for successfully attacking Iran:
* Air strikes on Iranian targets: This depends on accurate intelligence, which is hard in a closed off country like Iran. If strikes miss or fail, Iran retaliates against US forces or protected assets, compounding the problem. We are seeing this now. Air campaigns always take much longer than expected and have a high risk of failure if the adversary is expecting the. Hidden Iranian missiles can attack regional targets even if you have air superiority. You will certainly escalate this into an extended, air campaign and lay insane amounts of destruction with your insane firepower but you will not negate Iran's ability to hurt you and your allies.
* Naval blockade of Iranian ports & Strait of Hormuz closure: This requires multiple carrier battle groups deployed indefinitely. The US has these in position but the fleet is vulnerable to Iranian missiles and asymmetrical naval warfare. Without a ground invasion Iran will not fold. There is no exit strategy for this high-cost option. And the global economic shock of the Straits' closure, which applies to all military options, would put immense pressure on the US.
* Ground Invasion: The US is the greatest military power in history. It can defeat the Iranian military and take territory, but it cannot hold it. Iran is a death trap of a country. Iran's mountainous terrain would make supply lines extremely vulnerable and nearly impossible to secure. The three prerequisites for military victory are avoiding encirclement, massing forces, and protecting supply lines all of which are rendered impossible by Iran's geography. Iran also has the largest army in the Middle East. It has a population of over 90 million people. It is no Iraq or Afghanistan. The terrain, the population, the large army combined mean almost certain extended guerilla warfare. This will result in a US armed forces death count the US public has no appetite for.
US has no chance vs Iran unless it does a ground invasion which will not happen. Without sustained control of ground which is impossible even with invasion, the war cannot be won. Persia was an empire for a reason. And Alexander the Great was rightly celebrated for defeating it. Geography and politics leave an imprint through centuries. Geography is that important.
For Iran this war on top of its financial crisis is a massive problem. But it is also an opportunity. A limited US intervention would unify Iran's population and its restive proxies. This makes understanding their decision making complex. But it explains their missile strikes today. They would not have started the war but they will not miss the chance to display their leadership and unite their people and proxies if war was thrust upon them.
Lastly lets dismiss the "regime change because of popular uprising" hypothesis. Neither will the US be greeted as a liberator nor will a civil war ensue, neither will there be a popular uprising. This is a fantasy. There is literally no available challenger and no political option on the ground. The Iranian population knows what US liberation in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan achieved. They do not wish for that death, destruction and displacement. Better the devil they know. They will support the regime. I had long believed that General Qassem Soleimani was the most viable option for a regime change. However the US took him out in 2020. While he was a genius and his death was a blow to Iran's expansionary plans he was also a piece on the table with no replacement. Now there is no piece.
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Who is the biggest beneficiary from this war? Let's look at October 7 incident onwards. October 7th was a massive intelligence failure. It destroyed Israel's reputation of possessing a frightening intelligence apparatus. Then Iran's missile strikes in Haifa and Tel Aviv burst Israel's military invulnerability myth. Its inability to disarm Hamas, and its hasty ground invasion and retreat in Lebanon all signaled a lesser power. Iran post-war will be further financially weakened. The eventual death of Khamenei will further destabilize it. The greatest regional economy is an actor not involved actively in this war. Turkey. With Israel no longer fearsome, Iran weakened, Turkey will slowly become the pre-eminent power in the region. I feel it will and should aggressively modernize its military and expand it. This is a once a generation opportunity. Pakistan with its population and its military prowess and its mineral wealth could be the second biggest beneficiary but it requires solving of six complex major economic issues that does not seem possible with limited efficacy of its current political system. It will benefit but not as much as Turkey. Saudi Arabia under a young leader with Pakistan in support can also gain a lot. This is why Israel's main aim post Iran is to stop the Pakistan-Saudi-Turkey nexus from forming. Such a bloc would resonate and affect change from the Atlantic coast of Morocco to the mountains of Tajikistan and would most probably attract Bangladesh a rising power in its own right. Israel senses this imminent threat and its countering with India, Taliban and an increasingly cornered UAE. The only thing that will achieve is support for this bloc from China at a time when the US after solving for Iran's nukes would go back to focusing on its hemisphere. It only looks for Turkey and its eventual allies.
And this brings us back to the unpredictability of war and Iran's nukes. The scenario of Iran developing nukes and using them on US tactically via a rogue actor are very slim but not zero. This is an existentialist threat. Sustained victory vs Iran is not possible. But just how far will US go to test that hypothesis for its own security under a leader like Trump? I cannot predict how far the US will go. Trump has a keen eye for perception. He knows a long war will affect the image of strength and leadership he is trying to portray.
The ideal scenario is US shock and awe airstrikes that take out all Iran air defenses and give it air superiority. All of this done to force Iran to the negotiating table. There is a deal on the nukes. The war ends.
Israel knows this. Which is why its first strikes killed dozens of Iranian girls. Israel is trying to anger Iran and force it to do something radical and so extreme that it forces US to put boots on the ground and go for regime change. Israel is also entirely capable of doing a false flag operation vs US troops or on US soil to get US to invade via ground. The chances of this are very high.
A protracted war will bring regime change in Israel, and US not Iran. It will allow Russia to make irreversible gains in Ukraine. It will split Europe from US even more. And it will allow China, which currently builds over 230 ships for every 1 that US builds, to accelerate and increase its military machine's size and finally make a play for Taiwan earlier than 2030+ when it is scheduled.
As I said wars are unpredictable. A panicked Israel and Iran's nuclear ambitions have brought us to this stage. Something has to give. Let us hope it is not global peace.
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