Journalytic

Good one from @Journalytic @michaeljburry on Buffett:

Link to post: mojo3324106.substack.com/p/everyone-has…

“We talkin’ about process?” Wrote something on why it matters more than people want to admit. Link to follow in third tweet (or refer to my bio)

This week didn’t feel like ‘08. Obvious to many, but lots of people in the market now who weren’t then! Movies don’t really capture the feeling - not the visceral part. But I think reading the diary entries of real people panicking does, pretty well

BLOOMBERG KILLERS In the past, you had no choice. Open your BBG terminal, grab your HP 12C, and hunt. Now, Bloomberg has real competition at the high end w/ LSEG, Cap IQ, and FactSet. And forget the HP 12C. Excel is all you need. But what if the cost is still too high? Good news. Plenty of free alternatives now replicate much of what BBG offers if you are willing to put in a little extra effort. Attaching 55 websites that are either free or offer extensive free functionalities. P.S. FinTwit has done its part. @joinyellowbrick stands out as an essential buy-side tool w/ a particularly accessible premium plan. @StockJabber and @atelicinvest recently launched @FOIAsearch and NOTSedar, respectively. TL;DR. Pay attention to your feed.

Last year, I did a Hindsight Bias Buster quiz on @Journalytic. The goal was to make a few predictions for 2024 and see how they turned out a year later. I just got a reminder to look at the results, and they blew me away! 1⃣ What will the return on the TSX SmallCap Index be next year? Answer: +19% Result: +18.8% 2⃣ What will be the return on the Russell MicroCap Index (IWC) next year? Answer: +35% Result: +12% 3⃣ Will US smallcaps outperform large caps (Russell 2000 vs 1000)? Answer: Yes Result: No (10% vs 23%) 4⃣ My top pick for next year? Answer: $PNG.V because it's cheap (5.5x forward EBITDA), growing quickly with strong tailwinds (military spending) and is starting to get discovered by institutions. Result: +323% return Yes, $PNG.V was trading at 5.5x EBITDA... Crazy, right? 5⃣ My wildcard pick for next year? Answer: $BRM.V because it's extremely cheap (3.4x forecasted 2024 EBITDA). The key was delivering and replenishing the backlog (which they did). Result: +205% return 6⃣ The stock in my portfolio that I have the least conviction in at the current price? Answer: $INEO.V because of delays in executing and showing sustainable growth. I was also worried they might blow up the cap structure if they had to raise more capital (which is exactly what happened). Result: -20% return (fortunately, I sold the stock during the year) 7⃣ The most attractive stock I don't own? Answer: $VHI.TO, which I thought was a high-quality compounder with a solid management team. I was hoping for a 15-20% pullback to buy it at around 10x EBITDA. It did not happen... Result: +176% return (I totally missed this one) I did the same exercise for 2025, and it's already off to a solid start. Should I share my picks? 😃

Thanks to today’s incessantly twitchy, infinitely networked markets, it has never been harder to be a disciplined and independent investor wsj.com/finance/invest… via @WSJ

@skiattt @skiattt Send us an email at support@journalytic.com and we'll work on getting your issue resolved. Thanks!

@Journalytic I can’t access the website of journalytic anymore on my laptop but can on my phone. Tried deleting cookies and a different browser without success. I’m using a hp 14s-dqxxx. Any other ways to solve this?

I think idea generation is the most important part of investing into microcaps, so I wrote a blog post about it.

One thing I can improve in my own process is being more self-critical/reflective. I’ve been using @Journalytic to help with real-time note taking. @farnamjake1 and team are doing great things with that product.

“The psychology of misjudgment is every bit as valuable as the thoughtful analysis of a balance sheet. Possibly more so.”  —Robert Hagstrom 🔥 @Journalytic

My Favorite Investment Tools: - Finchat.io (financials/graphs) - Quartr (earnings calls+) - Bamsec (fnancial statements) - Seeking Alpha (stock analysis/sentiment) - Podcasts (general knowledge) - Journalytic (thesis vault) - Twitter (X) (knowledge/sentiment)

My year end productivity stats via my @Journalytic dashboard. Fun to see the yearly tally of each day's writing. Gotta long way to go to catch up with @farnamjake1's output! One of my 2024 goals is to write more & also publish more of this. Writing stimulates deep thinking which improves investing. "This is a game of tonnage" - Seinfeld

2023 Investment Process Year in Review, courtesy of @Journalytic. 🫡 PIPER mindset: Persistent Incremental Progress Eternally Repeated

a wonderful quote from @Journalytic today: “There’s nothing that produces wisdom more thoroughly than really getting your own nose whacked hard when you make a mistake, and we had a firm amount of that.”  —Charlie Munger

"Investors who want to assess their skills at pattern recognition can maintain a journal and document their intuitions. Done properly, this allows for the measurement of calibration, or how well probabilistic forecasts match the frequency of outcomes. Over time, such an accurate self-assessment can help reveal where and when pattern recognition is accurate and adds value." @mjmauboussin morganstanley.com/im/publication…

How much are you hurting your returns? "Run your January 1 portfolio for the full year without any changes and compare it to your actual results. It's awful because some years you realize all you did was subtract value when you went into the office." microcapclub.com/how-much-are-y…

Just found the most amazing (currently free) resource journalytic.com Perfect for any retail investor or solo fund manager - they're hard at work on team features Would highly recommend you check them out! @philippeterson @farnamjake1 thx @JohnHuber72