Martin Pelletier

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Martin Pelletier

Martin Pelletier

@MPelletierCIO

Portfolio Manager @TriVest_WAPC | CFA Charterholder | Invest Pro Columnist @fpinvesting | Market & Risk Strategy | Views are my own | No checkmark not me

Calgary, Alberta Entrou em Kasım 2010
4.4K Seguindo71.5K Seguidores
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
Macro clarity. Margin resilience. Mispriced risk. Contrarian takes on global equity & bond markets, energy, and geopolitics - without the noise. -Canadian based Portfolio Manager -Market Strategy & Insight -Peace of Mind, Risk-Managed investing Follow for Signal, not Sentiment. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/th…
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Keith McCullough
Keith McCullough@KeithMcCullough·
I think I'm the only one on Twitter who was Long Gold today - I will be tomorrow too, I guess
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
Today's oil crisis is akin to the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points. Powell made a huge mistake yesterday. The American economy will pay the price.
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO

Here is a stat for you. At today’s consumption rates, the recent increase in gasoline prices amounts to roughly a $350 million per day consumer “tax,” according to @GasBuddyGuy . On an annualized basis, we estimate this drag is comparable in magnitude to the impact of a 50‑basis‑point rate hike, though it operates through household cash flows rather than financial conditions. Let that sink in on today's FOMC. @unusual_whales

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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
And your advisor is telling you to add bonds for risk-management?
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
The Fed is keeping rates flat into a supply shock as if it were demand-driven inflation. When inflation is supply-driven and growth is already weakening, keeping rates elevated will crush demand while leaving the original supply problem unresolved. The economy slows more than inflation does. That is the mechanism of stagflation: recessionary pressure plus stubborn prices.
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
winning. same party, same policies, and yet expecting a different outcome?
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
So many missing this, and it is important to understand the dynamics in today's oil shock and how fighting between the Federal Reserve and Trump will impact markets and economies. Historically, the commonly observed pattern of oil rising alongside a weaker USD tends to occur during demand‑driven oil rallies, when stronger global growth, improving risk appetite, and capital flows into non‑U.S. assets dominate. In those environments, oil prices rise as part of a broader “risk‑on” cycle, while the dollar often softens as investors rotate toward cyclical, emerging‑market, and commodity‑linked currencies. Negative oil–USD correlations are often the by‑product of shared demand and risk conditions rather than a mechanical pricing rule. By contrast, supply‑driven oil shocks can produce the opposite outcome: oil prices and the USD rising together. In these episodes, higher oil prices tighten global financial conditions, raise inflation risk, and increase uncertainty, driving safe‑haven flows into the dollar and pushing U.S. yields higher as markets price “higher for longer” policy paths. This effect has become tighter in recent years as the U.S. has shifted toward being a larger energy and commodity producer, meaning higher commodity prices can now improve U.S. terms of trade and support the dollar, rather than weaken it. This post‑COVID shift, help explain why today’s oil‑supply shock has coincided with a strong USD rather than a weaker one. This is exactly why there was room for the Fed to proactively cut rates at yesterday's meeting - which would alleviate pressure on other central banks to do the same. Now other countries are going to have to sell assets, and I would argue it makes more sense to sell their UST than it does their gold, but perhaps they are simply starting with gold.
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Alberta❤️
Alberta❤️@AlbertaSask·
@MPelletierCIO Alzheimer’s patient languishes in bed, can’t feed/clean themselves, doesn’t know where they are/who their loved ones are for 6 years.. SIX YEARS!! Family pleas for help..nope we must let her suffer MORE! 6 SIX years isn’t long enough! FFS we treat our pets with more dignity.
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OT@Oliver_Trpcic·
@MPelletierCIO Martin We also consume A LOT of this in AB... SAGD, oil sands, home heating. Double edge sword for sure.
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
USD strength vs. Gold (inverse) last 30 days.
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Martin Pelletier
Martin Pelletier@MPelletierCIO·
The Big Short part 2. mini-me version.
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