Mark
129 posts

Mark
@MarkNewbs
Retired software developer now developing myself.
Entrou em Aralık 2021
110 Seguindo73 Seguidores

@NoLimitGains Please help those trying to learn. Just a few words to explain or give me something to look into. Thanks.
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@DodgysDD @RickySi42355008 I'd rather hear about your charitable endeavours than more of your bragging and showing off
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BREAKING: Britain has fewer than 50 Storm Shadow cruise missiles left. The stockpile that once exceeded 200 was drained over two years of transfers to Ukraine to help Kyiv strike Russian targets deep behind the front line. The missiles worked. They hit command posts and ammunition depots and naval headquarters across occupied Ukraine and Crimea. They helped Ukraine survive. And now Britain has almost none left for itself, during a war being launched from its own airfields against a country that just hit a British oil facility with drones.
Brimstone anti-armour missiles sit at 25 to 35 percent of pre-war stocks. Paveway IV precision-guided bombs, the same weapon the RAF used over Libya and Syria, are at 30 to 40 percent. The National Audit Office estimates that Britain can sustain high-intensity combat operations for three to six weeks before requiring American resupply. Three to six weeks. The Iran war is already in its fifth week. If Britain were fighting it rather than hosting it, the cupboard would already be empty.
The Army is 10,000 soldiers below target. Type 45 destroyers suffer chronic propulsion failures requiring six to twelve months of repair. The F-35 and Typhoon fleet operates at 60 to 70 percent availability. The industrial base that would replenish stocks runs on rare-earth magnets manufactured in China, the same China that controls 90 percent of the permanent magnets in every guided missile Britain would need to fire and is currently being asked to broker the peace.
Any direct involvement beyond basing would require 8 to 15 billion pounds in emergency supplemental spending. National debt exceeds 100 percent of GDP. There is no majority in Parliament for funding a war the Prime Minister says is not Britain’s, fought with weapons Britain does not have, replenished by supply chains controlled by a country Britain needs to broker the ceasefire.
This is why Starmer says “not our war.” Not because of principle. Not because of legality, although his own advisors have told him the strikes are legally questionable. Not because of Iraq, although the ghost of Blair hangs over every press conference. Because of arithmetic. Britain gave its missiles to Ukraine. It gave its bases to America. It gave its diplomatic capital to a 35-nation meeting about reopening Hormuz “after the fighting stops.” And it has nothing left to give except words, which cost nothing and accomplish less.
Trump knows this. He mocked the Royal Navy in the Telegraph interview. He dismissed Starmer’s windmills. He called NATO a “paper tiger” because the paper is literal: Britain’s defence capability exists on paper. On the tarmac and in the magazines and in the recruitment offices, the numbers tell a different story. The story says that one of the six largest economies on earth, the country that once ruled a quarter of the planet, cannot sustain a shooting war for longer than six weeks without calling Washington for resupply.
The bases are full. The aircraft are American. The missiles are gone. The debt is real. And the Prime Minister stands at the podium and says this is not our war while the war takes off from our runways carrying weapons we could not replace if we tried.
Britain is not refusing to fight. Britain cannot fight. The doctrine is not a choice. It is an inventory report. And the inventory says zero.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Bitcoin is at $70,500. It has not moved in weeks. Everything around it is on fire. That is the thesis.
The Strait of Hormuz collects tolls in yuan. Russia just locked its gold inside its borders. The BRICS Unit pilot is settling trade on 40 percent physical gold backing. The Fed holds at 3.5 to 3.75. The BOJ holds at 0.75. Iran is blacking out. The oil is near $100, up 50 percent since the year began. The dollar’s share of global reserves is falling. Central banks bought 863 tons of gold last year. And Bitcoin sits at $70,500, belonging to no government, stored in no vault that can be sanctioned, denominated in no currency that a chokepoint can block, and settled on no rail that requires permission from the IRGC, the Federal Reserve, or the People’s Bank of China.
The market calls this “consolidation.” The market is not wrong. But it is incomplete. What is consolidating is not a price range. It is a role.
The war revealed what sanctions could not: promise-based settlement fractures under chokepoint stress. The DFC backstop covers 6 percent of the $352 billion needed to restart Hormuz shipping. Gold is being locked inside Russia. Yuan flows through Hormuz tolls into physical vaults. Every hard-asset rail is being built around the dollar. And Bitcoin, which requires no vault, no navy, no insurance stack, and no sovereign backstop, is sitting at $70,500 waiting for the world to finish building the alternatives before it prices what it already is: the only neutral settlement layer no chokepoint can trap.
The miners are pivoting. Seven hundred thousand Iranian rigs went dark when the grid was hit. Hashrate dropped 8 percent. Difficulty adjusted down 7.76 percent. The network self-corrected in 14 days. No committee met. No decree was signed. The protocol adjusted because the protocol was designed to adjust. The surviving miners absorbed the margin. Those who could not pivoted to AI at 3 to 25 times the revenue per megawatt. The hash rate recovered to 1.03 zettahashes. The war made Bitcoin’s infrastructure stronger by removing its weakest nodes.
ETFs hold $91 billion and 1.29 million Bitcoin. MicroStrategy holds 762,000. March inflows are $890 million, down 73 percent month on month. The institutional base is not surging. It is absorbing. Quietly. Removing supply without moving price. The float thins while the price stays flat. That is not weakness. That is compression before repricing.
The BOJ held at 0.75 on March 19 because the Iran oil shock made a hike too risky. The trillion-dollar yen carry trade did not unwind. Bitcoin’s correlation with the yen is at a record 0.86. If the BOJ hikes, Bitcoin faces a 20 to 30 percent drawdown. If the BOJ holds because the war continues, the carry persists and Bitcoin’s liquidity floor holds. The threat and the shield are the same event.
The GENIUS Act is law. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House and awaits the Senate, bans Fed retail CBDC and classifies Bitcoin as a regulated digital commodity. Both create the scaffolding for Bitcoin to operate as institutional-grade neutral money while the BRICS build gold-backed alternatives and Iran demonstrates that any geography-dependent asset can be weaponised.
Bitcoin does not move because Bitcoin does not need to move yet. The transitions around it, dollar to yuan in the strait, promise to collateral in Moscow, kinetic to molecular in Hormuz, are still incomplete. When they complete, the repricing will not be gradual. It will be a recognition event. The asset that no chokepoint can trap, no sanction can freeze, no navy can escort, and no central bank can print will reprice against every asset that requires all four.
$70,500. Still. Waiting. While the world builds the case for why it exists.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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@CryptoMichNL Sideways consolidation after 1 significant low equates to end of bear market? Not so sure.
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@DagemTrader @I_Am_The_ICT He tells us not to show him (or anyone else) how much you made or lost. Just humbly, quietly thank him.
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@DefiWimar @grok is this true? Who is te photo of? What app is in screenshot?
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🚨 BREAKING
TRUMP INSIDER WITH A 100% WIN RATE JUST OPENED AN $85 MILLION SHORT ON THE ENTIRE MARKET RIGHT AHEAD OF TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY!
HIS TOTAL PROFIT NOW EXCEEDS $170 MILLION, MADE IN JUST 5 TRADES.
HE WENT ALL-IN AGAIN, JUST LIKE LAST TIME...

Wimar.X@DefiWimar
🚨 BREAKING TRUMP WILL MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT TO THE NATION TODAY AT 9 PM ET! SOURCES SAY IT COULD BE ABOUT A STRIKE ON IRAN, AFTER AN INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING EARLIER TODAY. ALL EYES ON TRUMP 👀
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🚨 BREAKING
A FED INSIDER, WITH A 100% WIN RATE, JUST OPENED A $110 MILLION $ETH LONG RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FOMC VICE CHAIR SPEECH!
IN OCTOBER, HE MADE $150 MILLION WITH A SINGLE SHORT AHEAD OF A FED MEETING.
HE WENT ALL-IN AGAIN, JUST LIKE LAST TIME...

Wimar.X@DefiWimar
🚨 BREAKING FOMC VICE CHAIR WILL GIVE A "HUGE" UPDATE ON FUTURE MONETARY POLICY TODAY AT 8:25 AM ET! MEANWHILE, ODDS OF A MARCH RATE CUT ARE AT 5%. PRAYING FOR OUR BAGS 🙏
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@shanaka86 @grok is this correct? If so, then provide a very short summary and conclude with a buy/sell signal.
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Anthropic's CEO told Fortune that a 12-month delay in AI progress would make him bankrupt.
Days later, he raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation.
I investigated what $380 billion is actually buying:
The growth is real. $1B to $14B revenue in 14 months. 10x annual growth for 3 straight years. No enterprise tech company in history has compounded like this.
But 27x revenue at 40% gross margins has zero public market precedent. Snowflake: 72% margins. Palantir: 82%. Anthropic needs to nearly double margins while quadrupling revenue by 2028. Its own inference costs came in 23% above forecast.
Then in 45 days, three doors closed:
Apple chose Gemini for 2.5 billion devices. Internal Apple teams prefer Claude. Anthropic priced itself out.
Amazon routes "the majority" of traffic to its own Nova models. 100% of Anthropic's AWS revenue recycled back as infrastructure payments. Amazon simultaneously investing $50B in OpenAI.
Pentagon considering severing Anthropic's $200M contract for refusing to remove safety restrictions. OpenAI already deployed to all 3 million DoD personnel.
Then the fracture from within: Anthropic's safety chief resigned. "The world is in peril." 10 million views. Days later Anthropic's own report: Opus 4.6 "knowingly assisted with chemical weapons research" in testing.
Pentagon punishes them for caution. Safety chief says values are failing. Their own model proves the danger is real.
$4.5B copyright exposure. Both founders named personally. $600-700B in competitor capital this year versus Anthropic's $30B.
My probability-weighted expected value: ~$350B. Below the $380B entry. Risk premium is negative.
Anthropic told the Pentagon no. Priced itself out of Apple. Publishes sabotage reports on its own models.
Either the deepest trust moat in AI or the most expensive institutional ideology in tech capitalism history.
At $380 billion, the market priced the healing. It has not priced the propagation.
Full analysis on Substack.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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@MasihEther @KobeissiLetter @grok @grok is this true? If true, what are the macro economic implications of this?
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@KobeissiLetter @grok how likely is a recession this year? Give % probability
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Employment at small US businesses is contracting at an alarming pace:
Small US firms employing 20-49 people shed -30,000 jobs in January, the 5th consecutive monthly decline.
These firms have seen employment contract in 14 out of the last 17 months.
Over this period, payrolls have declined -296,000, to 22.5 million, the lowest since August 2022.
This is also the biggest contraction since the 2020 pandemic.
Small businesses are cutting jobs as if there is a recession.

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@TheOtherParker_ @grok who first posted this information? Is it legitimate from a legitimate authoratitive source? Please summarise the information for a 10 year old.
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This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.
If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets.
Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK.
We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.
This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.
The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.
Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.
I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely.
Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.
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🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING JUST BROKE!
Gold? ALL TIME HIGH
Silver? ALL TIME HIGH
We’re seeing a complete rejection of sovereign debt.
If you’re holding stocks, you’re not gonna like what I’m about to say.
This is very BAD for the markets…
Here’s what it means for your portfolio:
Capital is fleeing paper promises for hard assets at a historic pace.
When Gold re-rates this aggressively, it acts as a black hole for liquidity.
IT BREAKS THE MODEL.
Stocks are valued on future cash flows discounted by rates.
When the "risk-free" asset (Treasuries) gets rejected, valuations don’t just adjust…
THEY COLLAPSE.
The collateral underpinning the banking system is losing value by the second.
What follows is inevitable.
– Margin calls.
– Forced selling.
– A rush for the exit.
We’ve seen this exact setup 3 times already.
The dot-com bubble (2000), months before the GFC (2007), and the liquidity crisis in the repo market (2019).
Every single time, a recession hits within 6 months.
Is this time any different? I don’t think so.
The Fed is now trapped in the ultimate corner:
If they print money to save the bond market, these metal prices go vertical.
If they don’t, the credit markets freeze.
Risk assets might ignore this for a moment.
BUT THEY WON'T IGNORE IT FOREVER.
The market is pricing in a total loss of control.
THE EXIT DOORS ARE CLOSING.
Now, listen to me.
I’m talking from experience (20+ years), and I think a major market crash is coming in the next 6 to 12 months.
Keep in mind that I’ve called every market top and bottom of the last 10 years publicly.
When I make my move and fully exit the markets, I’ll say it here publicly FOR EVERYONE TO SEE.
You better follow me with notifications, or you’ll regret it. Trust me.
If you want my $0-$1M step by step guide, comment "GUIDE" down below and check your DMs.

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🚨BREAKING: Silver prices are exploding due to a severe global supply shortage.
The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand.
Here is what is actually going on 👇
1. China is changing the rules.
Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports.
To export silver, companies will now need government licenses.
Only large, state approved firms qualify:
- At least 80 tonnes of annual production
- Around $30 million in credit lines
This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters.
China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately.
This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals.
2. The silver market was already short supply.
Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year.
For 2025:
- Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces
- Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces
That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits.
Mining supply is not growing:
Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining.
New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap.
There is no quick fix here.
3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing.
This is where it gets serious.
- COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020
- London vaults are down 40%
- Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows
At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver.
This is why physical premiums are exploding.
In Shanghai:
- Physical silver trades at $80+/oz
- COMEX prices are much lower
This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver.
4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality.
There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver.
The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1.
That means:
- For every 1 ounce of real silver
- There are hundreds of paper claims
If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks.
Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical.
5. Industrial demand keeps rising.
Silver is not just a safe haven metal.
It is critical for:
- Solar panels
- Electric vehicles
- Electronics
- Medical devices
Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand.
There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses.
Banks and institutions are reacting to:
- Supply limits
- Physical shortages
- Paper market risk
Silver is not rallying because of fear.
It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.

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🚨 THE NEXT 7 DAYS DECIDE THE ENTIRE BITCOIN CYCLE.
Most people have no idea how close we are to a violent move.
Everyone’s asking the same question right now:
“Why does BTC keep going nowhere even after all the bullish news?”
Here is the answer you’re looking for:
Over the next 7 days, roughly $415 million worth of options exposure expires.
That’s about TWO THIRDS of the entire short-term derivatives pressure sitting on Bitcoin right now.
And most of it is concentrated on ONE date.
Let me explain this without the usual bullsh*t.
Look at the breakdown:
– TODAY: ~$128M rolls off
– Dec 26: ~$287M rolls off (this is the big one)
– Everything after that drops off hard
That Dec 26 number alone is nearly half of all exposure.
Why does that matter?
Because when that much money is tied to options, the people on the other side of those trades have a massive incentive to keep price boring.
It’s not bullish or bearish, it’s just stuck.
If Bitcoin runs too hard, they lose.
If Bitcoin dumps too hard, they lose.
So what do they do?
They lean on price and they dump whenever it goes up, they buy dips just enough to stop momentum and they keep it pinned where it hurts traders the most.
That’s why every move lately feels fake… you’ll see a move up, then instant rejection.
Or a flush down, then a small bounce, but no follow-through either way.
Now here’s the important part most people aren’t thinking about:
Once Dec 26 passes, that pressure is GONE.
You can’t just magically replace $287M of exposure overnight.
It takes time, capital, and risk appetite. None of that shows up instantly during holidays like right now.
So between now and then?
– Expect frustration.
– Expect chop.
– Expect people getting chopped up trying to trade every candle.
After that?
The market finally gets to move without someone stopping it.
I’m not saying it instantly moons and i’m not saying it dumps either.
But the reason price feels broken right now is because it literally is being held in place.
If you’ve been feeling like Bitcoin should be moving but isn’t, this is exactly why.
This is the kind of expiry that loosens intraday control.
It doesn’t guarantee a pump, but it removes the immediate hand pushing BTC back under every small breakout.
If you’re new, understand this now or you’ll learn it the hard way:
The chart lies but the flow doesn’t.
On another note, I was the only one to call the exact bottom at $16k three years ago and the exact top at $126k in october.
If you missed it, don’t worry cause I’ll do it again because I want to help people.
If you haven’t followed me yet, you’ll regret it.

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