Market Pit

Warsh publicly said the Fed under Powell moved "too slowly, too cautiously, too late" on inflation. Powell will now sit in the same room, vote on the same decisions, and watch Warsh either prove him wrong or quietly validate everything Powell actually did. Central banking politics just became the most underrated drama of 2026.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Jerome Powell to remain on Federal Reserve Board as Governor after Fed Chair term ends.

@KobeissiLetter The Fed just held rates for the 4th straight meeting while the US exported record 6 million barrels/day, collected $228M/day in extra export revenue, and drove domestic gas to $5/gallon from the same war. Is America fighting inflation — or profiting from it?

BREAKING: In the final policy decision with Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, the Fed has decided to leave interest rates unchanged.

TRUMP SAYS HE REJECTS IRAN OFFER TO REOPEN HORMUZ

US total oil and petroleum product exports: 12.9 million barrels per day — the highest in American history. For context: Saudi Arabia's entire production capacity is 12 million barrels per day. The United States just out-exported Saudi Arabia because Iran closed the strait Saudi Arabia ships through.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US oil exports hit a record 6 million barrels per day last week.

@Polymarket Powell just held rates at 3.75% because inflation is still at 3.3% and oil is at $116. Republicans are simultaneously exploring a $200B tax cut that would increase the deficit — which increases money supply — which feeds inflation — that Powell is holding rates to fight.

JUST IN: Republicans are reportedly exploring indexing capital gains to inflation ahead of the midterms.

Hood is gone!!!

The US seized the MV Touska. Iran seized the MSC Francesca and the Euphoria. Both sides are now seizing each other's ships in the same 34-mile strait. This is no longer a blockade. It's a maritime arms race in the world's most important waterway. Brent at $114 is the opening bid — Goldman Sachs projected $120-125 if it holds through June.

BREAKING: Iranian state media warns of "unprecedented military action" if US seizures of Iranian-linked vessels continues. Last night, WSJ reported that President Trump instructed his aides to prepare for an "extended blockade" of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices are nearing $114/barrel.

Jerome Powell held rates at 3.50-3.75% for the fourth consecutive time then walked away from the podium for the last time as Fed Chair He inherited 2% inflation, fought 9.1%, brought it back to 2.4% and leaves with a successor who spent years criticising everything he did. The man who couldn't cut is handing the mic to the man who'll have to.

🇺🇸 Today, Jerome Powell will deliver his last FOMC press conference as Federal Reserve Chair.

We all ned Axios right now

King Charles also noticed Trump demolished the White House East Wing to build a $400 million ballroom and made a joke about that too. A King roasted a President, in the President's own house, about renovating it, while the President laughed. The "special relationship" has never been more accurately named.

🇬🇧🇺🇸 King Charles to President Trump: "You recently commented…if it were not for the United States, European countries would be speaking German." "If it wasn't for us, you'd be speaking French."

@WatcherGuru Musk's xAI is currently under investigation in multiple countries for Grok generating explicit deepfakes of real women and children. The man warning "AI could kill us all" in court is the same man whose AI is already harming people right now.

JUST IN: Elon Musk says AI "could kill us all" during OpenAI lawsuit testimony.

The @ajambrosino context —what was actually being said: @ajambrosino: AI critic. Writer. Has been arguing: OpenAI is losing its lead. Anthropic is better at coding. The moat is gone. The revenue model is broken. Sam Altman's response: "You're doing my job for me." "Your criticism is making me look good." "Wait for the updates." The problem: @ajambrosino's argument: OpenAI missed revenue targets: ✓ (confirmed this week) Anthropic better at coding: ✓ (SWE-bench) Enterprise clients defecting: ✓ (Cursor, Morgan Stanley) CFO worried about bills: ✓ (Bloomberg) Revenue model under pressure: ✓ (three consecutive misses)

So March is the best month but March feels soo long so there is no best month

The three options and why Trump chose the hardest one: Three options on Trump's desk: Option 1: Resume bombing. Cost: Iran strikes back. Regional escalation. Hezbollah: full activation. Lebanon war resumes fully. US carrier group: within Iranian missile range. Casualties: certain. High. Risk: Russia. China. Proxies all activate. Trump chose: no. Option 2: Walk away. Negotiate. Cost: Iran claims victory. Enrichment continues. IRGC: reconstitutes faster than expected. Trump's domestic position: collapse. "Weak on Iran" narrative: permanent. Political cost: enormous in MAGA base. Trump chose: no. Option 3: Extended blockade. Cost: US gas prices rise. Inflation spike. Global energy disruption. Continues. Iran economy: squeezed further. Time: unknown. Months. Risk: Iran doesn't capitulate anyway. Trump chose: this one. The WSJ story this morning: Is Trump explaining to his own aides why he chose the option that hurts American consumers most over the option that risks American military casualties because the political calculation is: High gas prices: recoverable. Military casualties: not. Negotiating retreat: never. Extended blockade: Is the option that costs Americans money to avoid costing Americans lives while waiting for Iran to blink first.

BREAKING: President Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an "extended blockade" of Iran to "compel nuclear capitulation," per WSJ. Details include: 1. Trump has opted to continue "squeezing Iran's economy and oil exports" through a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz 2. Trump believes resuming bombing or walking away from the conflict pose a higher risk than maintaining the blockade 3. Continuing the blockade is expected to drive US gas prices even higher 4. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in the lowest number of transits through the Strait since the Iran War began Today marks two months of the Iran War.

China's response options to the IAA: Option 1: Rare earth export restrictions. China controls: 95% of EU rare earth imports. 100% of heavy rare earths globally. Neodymium: EV motors. Dysprosium: wind turbine magnets. Terbium: EV drive systems. Cobalt: batteries. EU clean energy transition without Chinese rare earths: Halts. Not slows. Halts. November 2025: China restricted gallium and germanium exports. Result: European chip manufacturers: shortage. Karremans (Netherlands): had to backtrack. Option 2: Retaliate on European luxury goods. EU exports to China: German cars: €30B/year. French luxury: €20B+/year. LVMH. Kering. Airbus: $20B order backlog from Chinese airlines. China banned Australian wine. Banned Lithuanian goods. Suspended Airbus orders briefly. It controls 95% of the rare earths that the EU needs to build the clean energy infrastructure. The IAA was designed to build locally to reduce dependence on the country that controls the raw materials you need to reduce dependence on.

🚨 Europe just drew a line in the sand against China. China just told Europe to erase it. The EU’s new Industrial Accelerator Act is the most aggressive decoupling move Europe has ever made. Any country controlling 40%+ of global production in batteries, EVs, solar or critical minerals faces hard investment restrictions in Europe. China is the only country that hits that threshold in every single sector. EVs sold under EU public contracts now require 70%+ European-made components. The EU Commission’s own words: “If we do nothing, soon 100% of clean technology will be manufactured in China.” Beijing responded Monday with a direct threat. China’s Ministry of Commerce warned it will take “countermeasures” if any Chinese company is harmed by this law. The US-China trade war is already running hot. Now Europe just opened a second front. Three of the world’s four largest economies are decoupling at the same time. The global supply chains built over 30 years are being taken apart in real time. If you want to know where I’m deploying capital next, turn on notifications this is VERY important. Many people will regret not following me.

Cough*Writing a totally legitimate news*Coughs

Well, he is our Indicator

Your Welcome 🤗

✊ US Futures in RED

✊ Oracle is currently getting butchered