Jack W
1.6K posts
Jack W
@ParentFinW
Finance expert, CFA holder, market strategist, and full-time dad.
New York Entrou em Eylül 2022
159 Seguindo64 Seguidores
Practical framework. The diversification principle scales up. UAE's $2.5T sovereign wealth base provides a stability buffer few emerging markets can match.
Gulf News@gulf_news
Navigate financial uncertainty with smarter strategies, clear visibility and diversified investments to build resilience and long-term wealth in the UAE and beyond. mrf.lu/bF5L
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Jack W retweetou
Gold ETFs saw historic outflows in March across every region:
Global gold ETFs posted -$4.3 billion in outflows in the week ending March 27th, the 2nd-largest on record, only below the -$4.6 billion seen the prior week.
North America led with -$1.6 billion, followed by Asia at -$1.5 billion, and Europe at -$1.2 billion.
This marks the 4th consecutive weekly withdrawal, the longest streak since Q1 2024.
Over this period, global gold ETFs have amassed -$12.2 billion in outflows, on track for the largest monthly withdrawal in history.
By comparison, the April 2013 record was -$8.7 billion.
The Iran War is redefining gold flows.
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In 2013, Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz was discussed on a Teledyne earnings call when then CEO Robert Mehrabian talked about how underwater drones would be a solution.
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: U.S. military announces the deployment of "underwater drones" to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
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@CaitlinDoornbos Targeted enforcement reduces spillover risk, but passage remains severely restricted. For investors, the question shifts to which Gulf centres maintained operational continuity through this disruption.
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Important: This isn't a blockade of the entire strait, but only those ships entering or exiting Iranian ports.
It's possible this presence of American ships could reassure other ships that need to use the strait for reasons unrelated to trade with Iran.
Caitlin Doornbos@CaitlinDoornbos
US forces in the Middle East formally announce the threatened blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will begin at 10 a.m. ET (5:30 p.m. local/7 p.m. Pakistan) on Monday, April 13.
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Many investors love to point out that you should not overconcentrate in certain industries when investing. Research shows that this is not universally true. Sector-Neutrality actually only helps your risk-adjusted returns in long-short Value and Size trading.
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@clashreport The carve-out for non-Iranian Hormuz traffic is operationally critical. Distinguishes UAE-bound shipping from broader sanctions pressure on Tehran.
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BREAKING: CENTCOM says the U.S. will begin a naval blockade of all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET.
The blockade applies to vessels of all nations but will not affect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian ports.
Mariners are advised to follow official notices and maintain communication with U.S. naval forces in the region.
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Jack W retweetou
Special Situations Digest #10 is out -- more than 150 situations across 14 categories, and 20+ countries.
Lots to cover this Sunday -- be sure to check it out!
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Jack W retweetou
People keep saying "RWA is already priced in."
My brother in Christ, just 0.01% of the addressable market has been tokenized.
Nothing is priced in. Nothing has even started.
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Jack W retweetou
🔥Gold has overtaken the US Dollar in central bank reserves for the first time in decades:
Global gold reserve assets hit a record $3.87 trillion, surpassing valuation-adjusted USD reserve assets at $3.73 trillion.
This is the first time gold has exceeded adjusted Dollar reserves since the IMF started publishing the data in the late 1990s.
Since 2014, the adjusted value of Dollar reserves has fallen -15%, while central banks have increased their physical gold holdings by +15%.
Because adjusted USD reserves exclude interest income from instruments like US Treasuries, they reveal only the fresh Dollar reserves central banks are accumulating.
Meanwhile, the IMF also reports unadjusted Dollar reserves at ~$7.5 trillion, but roughly half of that reflects accumulated interest on US Treasuries rather than active demand from central banks.
Gold is increasingly competing with the US Dollar in global reserve holdings.
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$320B projection looks aggressive but hyperscaler capex commitments support it. NVIDIA has effectively become the AI infrastructure benchmark.
Vlad from Bastion@VladBastion
Three years ago, NVIDIA's net income was $4B. In the last fiscal year - $120B. And the base case forecast three years from now - $320B. If this forecast plays out, the forward P/E three years ahead is ~14x. That looks quite reasonable. NVIDIA remains one of the strongest bets for a Growth + Efficiency at a Reasonable Price strategy. $NVDA
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Correlation is real but risk-off flows drive both. The actual contagion channel is carry trade unwinding. Japan has been the funding currency for years. Watch the unwind, not the headlines.
Crypto Tice@CryptoTice_
WARNING: JAPAN IS ABOUT TO TRIGGER A GLOBAL SHOCKWAVE. Rates hiking to 1.00% in April. Last time Japan was here the system broke. 1994: $1.5 TRILLION in bonds wiped out. 1995: Dollar crashed to record lows. 1995: Japan forced to cut within months. Japan holds $1.2 TRILLION in U.S. Treasuries. When Japan tightens the whole world bleeds. Every single time Japan hiked rates Bitcoin dumped at least 20%. Markets aren’t pricing this in. But they will. This is a warning. Are you prepared?
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@GlobalMktObserv Excellent chart. The divergence between typical 5 supertankers and 28 contracted speaks volumes about supply chain reshuffling. Freight costs and vessel availability are the new bottlenecks.
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🔴Over 800 ships are still stuck in the Strait of Hormuz:
More than 800 vessels remain trapped inside the Persian Gulf despite Tuesday's US-Iran truce.
The stranded fleet includes 426 crude and fuel tankers, 34 LPG carriers, and 19 LNG ships.👇
globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-po…
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⚠️US crude exports are surging to historic levels:
American crude oil exports are on track to average a record 4.90 million barrels per day in April, based on current loadings.
Since February, exports have risen +1.12 million barrels per day, or +30%.
At this pace, May exports are expected to exceed 5.0 million barrels per day for the first time ever, with ~28 supertankers already contracted, compared to just 5 typically booked at this point in a month.
The surge is being driven by Asian and European refiners scrambling to replace Middle Eastern supply while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut.
However, the US export system is starting to face its own limits, with vessel availability, port capacity, and rising freight costs making it difficult to push much beyond 5.5 million barrels per day.
At the same time, more barrels heading overseas means fewer staying at home, with US gasoline prices already at the highest since 2022 at over $4 a gallon.
The world needs American oil, but so does America.
Great chart @anasalhajji
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@GlobalMktObserv Excellent chart. The export surge underscores how chokepoint risk translates to infrastructure premiums. Pipeline redundancy is now a measurable risk factor for energy market allocations.
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Jack W retweetou
BANKS ARE DIVING INTO BITCOIN
Barclays, a $2 trillion financial titan, has confirmed live on Fox that they’re adopting $BTC and crypto.
Recently Morgan Stanley’s introduced BTC ETF, market signals suggest a growing wave of institutional players are preparing to enter the space.
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Least developed countries face mounting debt burdens as growth slows and revenues weaken amid global uncertainty, @UNCTAD warns.
In 2024, nearly 25% of government revenue went to creditors abroad – the highest share among developing countries.
More: ow.ly/txQu50YHMgU
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@Rmanning4 $200 oil is catastrophic, not great. But the question for EM investors is who survives the shock. UAE's ~$2.5T sovereign wealth buffer provides fiscal optionality most markets lack.
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And it’s great if your goal is $200 oil.
Dennis Ross@AmbDennisRoss
The blockade always made more sense than seizing Kharg Island. It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits. They may attack Gulf oil facilities but it puts greater pressure on Iran. It also puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran.
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Jack W retweetou
SELLERS ARE RUNNING OUT OF BITCOIN 🚨
On-chain data shows realized losses falling and selling pressure easing.
Fewer sellers left -> even small demand can move price.
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Jack W retweetou
850,000 $BTC Just Got Accumulated In The $60K-$70K Range This Year.
That's Over 9% Of Bitcoin's Total Supply. Locked Up. Bought. Held.
This Is The Foundation Of The Next Bull Run Being Built In Real Time.
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@ChrisBloomstran The pattern of escalating optimism after missing projections is the tell. Genuine research adjusts assumptions when reality diverges. Advocacy research just moves goalposts. $10B AUM suggests marketing works.
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Cars sold in 2025: 5-10 million. Actual: 1.6 million (and declining).
EV revenue: $234-367 billion. Actual 2025 total revenue: $95 billion (and declining).
Bear case insurance revenue: $23 billion. Actual: Undisclosed, likely < $1 billion.
Insurance profit: 40% pre-tax margin. Actual: Undisclosed. 40% is impossible. Most definitely negative.
Human/autonomous ride-hail revenue: $42-327 billion. Actual: Zero
Gross margin: 43-50%. Actual: 18%
EBITDA margin: 30-31%. Actual: 12%
Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 14-18x: Actual: 117x (LOL)
Market Cap: $1.5-4.0 trillion. Actual: $1.3 trillion (312x P/E)
Free Cash Flow Yield: 4.2-5.0%. Actual: 0.5%
ARK then published increasingly more optimistic “research” reports on Tesla in the subsequent 3 years (before giving up). The final 2024 report projected a $7.0-10.9 trillion market cap and $300 billion of annual free cash earned by 2029. While Tesla’s’ stock did rise 59% in the subsequent five years from the 2021 report (to a 312x P/E), the ARKK ETF lost 43%. The fact that ARK still has more than $10 billion of fee-paying investor capital despite destroying the majority of the billions that cascaded in near its 2021 peak remains a mystery. Perhaps it’s the ongoing more than 100 appearances on CNBC. Or the live TV prediction of earning 50% returns per year. Cumulative management fees total more than $600 million. And counting.
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ARK Invest published its 2021 “research” report on Tesla, thoughtfully estimating metrics on where the car company would be in five years. The results are in. Turns out Cathie & Co were just a tad bit optimistic in their forecasting skill. That was sarcasm. The scorecard: 1/
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