Mack

Time to start posting alpha again on this twitter account. BVOL -> rolling 7 day Bitcoin volatility measure. Extremely low levels of vol is normally followed by large expansions out of the range. As a market consolidates in a narrow range for an extended period, more participants take positions on both sides. With increasing open interest, the eventual breakout becomes more intense and directional, the longer the low volatility environment lasts. Lets look into each one in more detail: 1. First time I ever experience a 'dead' market with no volatility for what felt like weeks. Of course, the breakout was vicious and quick and the bulk of the move was over within a week but Bitcoins price had dropped 50%. 2. Similar situation to 1 but to the upside, with a 4 month low volatility environment culminating in a 10% move to the upside within a single hour. The breakout of 4.2k lead to a 2 month long bull run all the way upto 13k. 3. Post covid range bound market, market were still deciding if they wanted to retest the COVID lows or break ATHs. Yes, there was a 20% move to the upside, but this was the one time in which the crypto markets didn't continue with the volatility after the initial breakout. 4. Low Volatility before eventually breaking 12k and heading to ATHs. This was the breakout leading to the last bull run. 5. Post FTX 3 month low volatility chop. Everyone was doom posting for another leg down which never came, ended up legging up 25% within a week and nearly 2xing over the following 2 months. Regardless of which way the price decides to go, some things seem evident, 1. Don't fade the initial move, instead jump on the trend. 2, Volatility will come back with a bang, position yourself wisely.