StylΞs 🦇🔊🇻🇪

Swim in the sea, go on road trips, count the stars, find true love be free.... do what makes you happy because too many moments are taken for granted

Ethereum becomes the everything denominator Great conversation 💯

@k1rallik Meanwhile:

🚨do you understand what just happened with America's biggest corporations.. Disney made $8.3 BILLION in profit last year. Federal taxes paid: $0 CVS made $6.57 BILLION. Federal taxes paid: $0 Tesla made $5.7 BILLION. Federal taxes paid: $0 Meanwhile Tesla paid China $1 BILLION+ in taxes the same year. 88 corporations. $105 BILLION in US profits. Zero to the IRS. Instead? The government PAID THEM $4.7 billion in rebates. You paid more in federal taxes than Walt Disney. Let that sink in. > 1950s: corporations funded 1/3 of the federal budget > 2025: corporations fund 8.6% It's not illegal. It's not a loophole. It's the system working exactly as designed.

Heads up, the market is back in euphoria territory when looking at the equity options put/call ratio. 🧐 This is where I look at realizing profits and putting on some hedges against remaining longs after such a sharp snapback rally.

Oil export controls incoming in….

Henry Paulson Says US Should Prepare for a ‘Vicious’ Bond Crash - BBG, 4/16/26 Conspicuous in its timing, IMO. "Why am I reading this now?"

TODAY IS TAX DAY. HERE'S WHAT WARREN BUFFETT SAID ABOUT PAYING TAXES IN 2024 "Berkshire sent in a check for over $5 billion to the U.S. federal government last year." "If 800 other companies had done the same thing, no other person in the United States would have had to pay a dime of federal taxes. No income taxes. No Social Security taxes. No estate taxes. Nothing." "It doesn't bother me in the least to write that check. And I would really hope, with all that America has done for all of you, it shouldn't bother you that we do it."

S&P 500 relative to M2 Money Supply 🚨 Dot Com Bubble vs. Now 😱👀

S&P500 options registered +$15 billion positive delta today. Highest I've ever seen. That is nuts.

The paper oil market can be manipulated through margin hikes, selective liquidity provision, and Trump's rhetoric - but the moment of reckoning with physical reality is drawing closer. Next week's CME options expiry is a significant event to watch. Meanwhile, the spread between Brent spot and the front month contract (expiring end of month) continues to hold at historically elevated level 🔥🔥 #oil #reality

Has charting on @tradingview mobile been down all day for anyone else?

⚠️Software stocks and private credit are COLLAPSING together: The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, $IGV, is down -25% since January 2025. The VanEck BDC Income ETF, $BIZD, is down -26% over the same period. Business Development Companies (BDCs) are publicly traded companies that lend to private equity-backed firms, giving retail investors exposure to private credit. The two sectors are collapsing for the same reason: software companies make up ~25% of BDC portfolios, the single largest sector exposure, according to Morgan Stanley. As AI disruption destroys the long-term growth outlook for software companies, the loans backing private credit portfolios are deteriorating in parallel. Virtually every publicly traded BDC is now trading deep in the red for 2026, with Blue Owl emerging as the epicenter of the private credit crisis. Since the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025, the bad news has come in waves, from the collapse of First Brands and Tricolor last summer to the broader realization that private credit is heavily concentrated in the most disrupted sector in the market. Software and private credit are the same trade.

Flows > Macro

🚨Private credit stocks are in FREEFALL: Blue Owl Capital has been the hardest hit, down a MASSIVE -65% since January 2025. Blackstone Secured Lending and Blue Owl Capital Corp have both fallen -29% over the same period. Ares Capital is down -19%, while Sixth Street Specialty Lending has held up the best but is still down -15%. The selloff accelerated sharply in early 2026 as record redemption requests, capped withdrawals, and growing concerns over AI disruption to software borrowers shook the entire sector. Meanwhile, investors requested a record $14.0 billion in redemptions in Q1 2026, with just 50% of those requests met, leaving the largest backlog in the industry's history. Private credit industry is struggling.

This is the current Strait of Hormuz traffic before the U.S. blockade begins:

Cracks in the US private credit market are widening: Investors requested a record -$14.0 billion in redemptions from private credit funds in Q1 2026. This is up +146% from -$5.7 billion in Q4 2025 and +278% higher than the -$3.7 billion in the full year 2024. Meanwhile, just half of those requests were met, leaving ~$7.0 billion in unmet redemptions, the largest backlog on record. Blue Owl Capital was the hardest hit, with investors requesting withdrawals of 41% from its $6.2 billion technology-focused fund and 22% from its $36 billion credit fund, among the highest quarterly redemption requests the industry has ever seen. Following the surge in requests, Blue Owl capped withdrawals at 5% for both funds, leaving ~35% and ~17% of requests unmet, the most in the sector. This is followed by Ares' Strategic Income Fund and Apollo's Debt Solutions Fund, both seeing ~11% in total redemption requests with ~6% unmet each. Pressure in the private credit market is intensifying.

"You're not blocking the strait, I'm blocking the strait." "No, I'm blocking it. I got here first."

I swear to God they are going to say they blockaded the Strait of Hormuz because that’s where alien technology has been hidden

Annoying as fuckness LOADING up rn 🔁

Wall Street just built a weapon to destroy itself, and the names on the target list should terrify you. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Barclays assembled a new index last week, one that rises in value the closer these firms get to collapse. They called it CDX Financials and they're selling it to hedge funds right now. The firms listed inside it are some of the biggest names in American finance, Blackstone, Apollo, Ares Management, MetLife, and Jefferies Financial Group. Their stocks have been in freefall since January down anywhere from 27 to 43 percent in just a few months. This isn't a stock market correction but rather a unwinding of a $3 trillion shadow banking system that replaced your local bank after the 2008 financial crisis. Private credit, loans made not by banks, but by these giant investment firms became the lifeblood of thousands of American companies. It was the hottest trade on Wall Street for five straight years, minting billionaires and generating returns that made traditional finance look boring. Then the losses started showing up. The trigger wasn't a single bank run or a housing crash but rather AI. These firms had lent hundreds of billions of dollars to software companies, and then AI started making those software companies obsolete almost overnight. Suddenly, the loans couldn't be repaid. Suddenly, the investors who had poured money into these private credit funds wanted their money back, all at once. Apollo approved only 45 cents on the dollar for investors trying to get out. Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl quietly capped withdrawals too. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, investors demanded $20.8 billion back, and the funds couldn't give it to them. Now the same banks that helped build this machine are selling the tools to tear it down. When JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs create a product specifically designed to profit from these firms failing, that is not a hedge. The people who understand the plumbing of this system best have decided it is safer to bet against it than to stand inside it. The last time Wall Street built instruments like this around a collapsing asset class, it was 2007, and the product was called a credit default swap on mortgage bonds.