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Thomas Nestico
27.9K posts

Thomas Nestico
@TJStats
Baseball and Pokemon Nerd. Website: https://t.co/FfO7o6p3Q9 Patreon: https://t.co/TmtgyxKNzN
Entrou em Haziran 2020
630 Seguindo55.1K Seguidores

Jack Wenninger (#90 Prospect) looked dominant in his Spring Breakout start, firing off 3.2 IP with 6 K
The righty leaned heavily on his fastballs-offspeed combo to readily rack up whiffs. Don't be surprised if he forces his way into the Mets rotation this summer!

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Dasan Hill (#61 Prospect) made his Spring Breakout start today
The Twins southpaw was effectively wild as he struck out 3 while issuing 2 BB in 2.2 Innings. He sat 97 MPH on his fastball, maxing out at 100! Command is the next focus, but this power from the left side is exciting

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@YankeesRising Yes. Those are Spring Training stats, and Alek Manoah has the 5th most PA of any pitcher. There are other tabs for different stats. Manoah ranks near the bottom in my model
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@TJStats That's what happens when I go to Spring Training stats. I didn't click anything.
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@YankeesRising That is a leaderboard sorted by Plate Appearences (PA) this Spring ???
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@sunshinevvn @pirates_at448 @PeterAppel23 This took forever to find, but I got it!
Surviourship and SP/RP splits are not considered, so it is not comprehensive, but illustrates your point!
x.com/TJStats/status…
Thomas Nestico@TJStats
Weighing BB% equal to K% when predicting Pitcher wOBA is noticeably worse than not including BB% at all when looking at K% and BB% However, there seems to be an optimum with the coefficient ratio at approximately 1:0.06 for K%:BB% Metric: a*K% - b*BB% Optimum at: b = 0.06*a
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@pirates_at448 @PeterAppel23 depends on if ur looking at starters or relievers, but when you optimize the a in K% - a*BB% it ends up closer to 0 than to 1
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@i_numbers82778 Also, I must have missed the news that he was optioned to AAA on March 8th. I'll update that in the article, but I don't expect it to be for long
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@i_numbers82778 Josh White is a very interesting arm. The pitch data does not jump out to me, but he just diced up batters last season. The Marlins must be very high on him provided that they opted to protect White in the Rule 5 Draft over Pushard or McCambley
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My 2026 MLB Breakout Picks!
This article highlights unheralded players that I believe can take a substantial leap in production this season. I updated my picks to reflect any injuries or roster moves from my initial list
Check it out here: tjstats.ca/2026/03/18/a-b…
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@YankeesBall95 @jSmooov33 @AJ_Lich @Anashe_Maps24 The testing of ABS in AAA inflated BB% -- Lagrange has did not use ABS in 2025. That 15 BB% for Lagrange against the highest level of competition he has faced is more important than lower BB% he ran when mowing through Hi-A batters
Chandler: 65.5 Strike%
Lagrange: 63.2 Strike%
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@jSmooov33 @TJStats @AJ_Lich @Anashe_Maps24 Weird, bubba chandler had a similar walk rate, where was he ranked?
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@AJ_Lich @YankeesBall95 @Anashe_Maps24 Ya, Lagrange deserves a substantial bump and he looks smoother this spring. If he can keep sustain this throughout his MiLB starts, he is going to easily be a top 20 prospect
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@YankeesBall95 @TJStats @Anashe_Maps24 The risk with Lagrange is he hasn’t been able to throw strikes consistently. This was seen in AA when he would dominate one game and walk 4 the next.
The fact he has 4 plus pitches I think gives him more leeway with the control. His mechanics look cleaner this spring too
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