TICO

📝🆓 MLB Play — 9-1 run🔥 👉 Nathan Eovaldi under 2.5 earned runs (Current price is -131 DK) Buying low on one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball. He has struggled to open up 2026, going 4.2IP (80 pitches) and 4IP (88 pitches) and allowing 5 and 6 earned runs, but his advanced stats look solid and he should see some substantial positive regression in the near future. Last year, he was under in 19/22 starts He’s facing the Mariners, who have REALLY struggled so far on offense. Their best hitters (Raleigh/JROD/Naylor) have been abysmal, and each of them are batting below .150. With the middle of the order ice cold, they haven’t gotten into any sort of rhythm. EO is also pitching at home in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball. Combine the ice cold offense with the perfect pitcher’s park, and it’ll be tough for Seattle to put up runs. It is far and away his best matchup so far We might see EO get pulled early as well. He has yet to complete 5 innings, and this Mariners lineup features 7 lefties. It’s certainly possible that the Rangers opt for a lefty/lefty matchup at some point during the 3rd time through the order. The bullpen isn’t in GREAT shape, but it’s not in bad shape either. They’ll probably be without Garcia and Beeks, but they still have 2 lefties available and 5-6 available arms. They have an off day on Thursday, so they can extend their guys a bit without too much concern. 2.5 earned run lines really shouldn’t exist for EO. If he pitches well tonight, we won’t see one for a WHILE. It’s time to grab the value now while it’s still here

No Siakam. No Nembhard. No Nesmith. And you’re telling me Obi Toppin isn’t getting this done? 20 minutes is all he needs.

📝🆓 Early MLB Play — 6-1 run🔥 👉 Jameson Taillon over 15.5 outs (Current price is -106 DK/FD) He’s up to 85 pitches, so he should see 90-95 here. If he can get through 5IP with 85 pitches or fewer (17 pitches per inning), he should come out for the 6th. In each of the last two seasons, he averaged 15 pitches per inning. He was over in 15/23 last year and 21/28 the year before. He has a strong matchup vs the Rays as well. They’re seeing the 5th fewest pitches per plate appearance with 3.81. If Taillon gets through 5IP with 85 pitches, he’d get to face 22-23 batters. Realistically, it should only take 20-21 batters (Taillon averages a hair over 1 runner allowed per inning). On paper, the Rays have performed well so far, but their numbers are inflated from their opening series vs the Cardinals, and regression is coming very, very soon. Outside of Yandy/Aranda/Caminero, they have a bottom-3 offense. Fortes and Fraley have been swinging it well, but that won’t last for much longer. I’ll gladly sell high on them here. The Cubs are also coming off a double header in which they used 6 relievers. They could use some length from Taillon here. News just came out that Matthew Boyd got placed on the IL as well, leaving the Cubs in a bad spot for tomorrow’s game. Overall, it’s a great spot and matchup for a 15.5 line

📝🆓 For the MLB Sweep🧹🧹 Jesus Luzardo under 5.5 hits allowed (Current price is -115 HR) We cashed Nola over 17.5 outs and it’s time to fade the Rockies again. It really just comes down to him facing the worst team in baseball. He allows less than a hit per inning, so even with 6IP, he likely stays under this line — especially given the matchup Again (from the Nola write-up), he’s a high strikeout pitcher, which can elevate his pitch count and shorten his outing. When his control is off, he doesn’t usually give up hits… he gives up walks, which helps us. There’s a realistic chance he only goes 5IP if his control is off as well.

You make the call: should pitches that are 99.9%+ out of the zone like this be a strike?