PIDGINBOY

Almost a year later. A lot has changed. A little too early to draw conclusions but curious, what are your thoughts at this time @SirJarus ? Your post here, which I 100% agreed with at the time, emphasized three things that needed to happen for the opposition to stand a chance. 1. Atiku/Obi/Kwankwaso working together. 2. PDP not presenting a presidential candidate. 3. APC doing a remontada from 2024. No. 1 has happened with caveats. RMK is now in the opposition coalition while his state sits with the center. The fact that his state and his protege are now with the ruling party, in my opinion, is significant as it reduces his influence in his state. The opposition needs every vote they can get to stand a chance. No. 2 is not clear yet but seems likely that they will present a candidate since it benefits the ruling party who seem to have gained a firmer grip of PDP this past year. However, there is also a caveat. PDP is also significantly weaker (and in contrast APC stronger) than it was one year ago. While PDP is still a household name and is the only opposition party that can match the ruling party in terms of reach of its structures, I wonder if the electorates have not mentally moved on. Then again, it's not yet an election cycle since PDP were the strongest opposition party across the country so maybe not enough time has passed. No 3. APC's image has definitely improved in the past year relative to where they were in 2024. I don't know if that's enough to call it a remontada though. The ruling party need to do a better job of communicating with Nigerians. This is a low hanging fruit endeavor that I am shocked they haven't improved on. But I think they have time. If they improve significantly in this department the election is theirs to lose, in my opinion. It was not stated in your post but I also think it's just as important to mention that elections are expensive and the opposition looks financially handicapped. Money alone does not win elections but it's an important component. From an outside looking in, it does not look like they have attained the financial strength baseline they need to win. An Atiku/Obi ticket is the oppositions ONLY chance. However, at this time, they both have not done nearly enough to mobilize the polity to their side and build momentum. Neither has expanded their base in the past 3 years which is somewhat disappointing. Infact, in my opinion, at least one of them has lost a non-trivial voting bloc. Also, they both have also looked very divided which is an antithesis of how an opposition wins. All in all it looks like the ruling's party election to lose but 10 months is a very long time in politics.