

Rob Topping
22.5K posts

@ToppingCapital
Alts & VC / Connect with me: https://t.co/Hzn9PT6ytR The “Nu40” -Tweet of #life, #art, #finance and #newassetclasses. 28 yrs - hedge fund = survivor





Two oil markets now exist. The physical one and the financial one. They are pricing two different wars. Oman crude just crossed $154 per barrel. Dubai sits at $130. Brent at $102. WTI at $93. The gap between the Gulf benchmark that reflects physical delivery through the war zone and the American benchmark that reflects paper contracts in Cushing, Oklahoma is $61 per barrel. Sixty-five percent. The widest divergence in the history of crude oil pricing. That gap is the war expressed as a number. Oman and Dubai price crude that loads in the Gulf, transits the strait, and delivers to Asian refineries. Those barrels are scarce, dangerous, uninsured, and physically gated by provincial commanders with radios. WTI prices crude that sits in American storage tanks connected by pipeline to refineries that have never heard a VHF radio hail from Bandar Abbas. The physical barrel is in a war zone. The paper barrel is in Oklahoma. The market is telling you these are no longer the same commodity. While the benchmarks diverge, Israel struck northern Iran for the first time. The war is expanding geographically while Trump tells Israel to stop hitting energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia reserved the right to military action against Iran. The United States is considering deploying thousands of additional troops. The escalation ladder has no ceiling and the de-escalation rhetoric has no floor. The market’s response is schizophrenic and revealing. Oil ETF shorts are surging. IEO short interest hit 2.8 percent, nearly a four-year high, tripled since the start of 2026. USO shorts increased by 3 million shares, up 50 percent in the last month. The financial market is betting that oil prices have peaked. Meanwhile the physical market just printed $154 for Oman crude. The shorts are betting against the paper price while the physical price screams. US stocks dropped more than one percent across major indices with PPI hitting a 13-month high. The producer price index is the inflation measure that arrives at the factory gate before it reaches the consumer. PPI at 13-month highs tells you the Fed’s PCE revision to 2.7 percent is not the ceiling. It is the floor. Retail investors are buying gold at a pace not seen in decades. Over $70 billion has flowed into gold ETFs since Q2 2025, tripling in the last six months. Silver ETFs absorbed $10 billion last year. Institutions are doing the opposite: selling $1 billion in gold and $200 million in silver. The retail investor who cannot access commodity futures or war-risk swaps is buying the oldest store of value on Earth. The institution that can hedge is rotating out. The divergence between retail conviction and institutional positioning is as wide as the Oman-WTI gap. Crypto funds took in $1.06 billion last week. Bitcoin ETFs alone received $793 million. The digital asset class that was bleeding ahead of the Fed hold is now absorbing inflows from investors who see the same thing the gold buyers see: the financial system is being repriced by a physical chokepoint that monetary policy cannot reach. Oman at $154. WTI at $93. Gold at $5,000. Bitcoin absorbing billions. Retail buying what institutions are selling. The physical market and the financial market are diverging at the fastest rate in history. And the farmer in Iowa, who lives in the WTI world but depends on molecules from the Oman world, is planting soybeans because the $61 gap just reached his seed catalogue. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…



Allbirds, the shoe brand, now says it's an AI compute company.






Hip hip hooray 🪅🥳🥂

UConn G Braylon Mullins will hold the first ever “NIL Auction” to determine what his next team will be with the minimum bid starting at $6M. Mullins intends to return to college and wants to be with the team that is willing to pay him the most.



Renewed Confidence in Brazil 🇧🇷 The Central Bank of Brazil raised its interest rate by a full percentage point today. In the chart, this is represented by the white line. This decision comes as inflation (blue line) is climbing again. Notice the significant gap between the central bank’s interest rate and inflation, this showcases how mature Brazil’s central bank has become. In the past, the Federal Reserve led the way, but now Brazil’s central bank is ahead of the curve. The first rate hike came in 2021, a year before the Fed. The first rate cut happened in 2023, also a year before the Fed, and now, with the first signs of inflation re-emerging, we’re seeing multiple rate hikes already. I get it, most eyes are on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq racing to new highs. But amidst the current negativity, I’m adding more Brazilian stocks to my portfolio. Changes in price levels are a major driver of shifts in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. If inflation in Brazil is decisively controlled, P/E ratios could double. Alternatively, even if inflation persists, a bull market in commodities could also lead to a doubling of P/E ratios.

The Shawshank Redemption flopped in theaters, $16 million worldwide on a $25 million budget, opening weekend just $727,000 in 1994, it disappeared almost immediately. It lost all seven Oscar nominations to Forrest Gump, no awards, no box office, the studio labeled it a failure and the director walked away devastated. Then something quiet started happening, VHS rentals, cable reruns, someone watching it alone on a Tuesday night and calling a friend the next morning. People who watched it told their friends, their friends told more people, it spread slowly, one recommendation at a time, no marketing push just genuine word of mouth. By 2008 it reached number one on IMDb, the audience voted it the greatest film ever made and it has stayed there ever since. It took 14 years to get there, a box office bomb turned into the highest rated film in history, built entirely by viewers long after the studio had already moved on.



Trump is not Making America Great Again. During the first 446 days, the S&P stock index has performed more poorly than the last 5 administrations. TRUMP'S TARIFFS + TRUMP'S WARS = MAKE AMERICA POOR AGAIN.
