AL

Market Overview — May 29, 2026 The U.S. stock market approached Friday’s session near its highs. Pre-market futures are trading slightly higher, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq show no signs of panic following yesterday’s record close. The main reason: the extension of the truce between the U.S. and Iran and the possible lifting of restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The engine is the same, but the gears have shifted. Although Brent fell below $100 per barrel, inflation is still at 4%, and this has rewritten the entire curve of expectations. The 10-year yield is at 4.4–4.6%, and the 30-year yield has retested its 2007 highs. From May 26–28, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a strong net outflow: $1.29 billion in total. In April, ETFs were the main buffer against drawdowns. Now, on the contrary, they have become a source of supply. The expiration also played out as expected. Ahead of the May expiration on Deribit, the key zone was $75k max pain, with dense call positions above in the $80k–82k range. Bitcoin fell below $73k on massive long liquidations. The rally in semiconductors and AI infrastructure is following the same trajectory as a week ago. First Micron at $1 trillion, now Snowflake +36.5% and Dell with 181% growth in the data center segment. It’s the same story: capital freed from oil risk is flowing not into crypto, but into AI. This rotation is simply continuing. The VIX is around 15–17—a low reading given the current news flow. I get the impression that volatility traders are being shaken out through a careful rotation between sectors. The U.S. stock market, based on its internal fear metrics, is completely calm. These are short-term jitters driven by headlines, not structural fear. #Markets #StockMarket #SP500 #Nasdaq #WallStreet #Investing #Trading #Macro #MacroEconomics #Economy #Inflation #Bonds #TreasuryYields #VIX #RiskOn #Oil #Brent #Iran #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BitcoinETF #ETFs #Deribit #Options #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Semiconductors #Micron #Snowflake #Dell #DataCenters #TechStocks

#SpaceX IPO Update SpaceX (after merger with xAI) is preparing for an IPO in June 2026 with a target valuation of $1.5–2 trillion — potentially the largest in history. 2025 financials: • Revenue ~$18.7B (+33% YoY) • Starlink (connectivity): $11.4B (~61% of revenue) — main growth and profit driver • Launches & government contracts: ~$4B • AI/xAI: ~$3.2B (still unprofitable) Starlink has >10M subscribers, but ARPU is declining as it expands into mass markets. At $1.75T valuation, SpaceX would rank in the global top 10, close to Tesla (~$1.6T), but far behind Nvidia ($5T+), Alphabet, and Apple. The P/S multiple is extreme: 90–125x 2025 revenue. **Bull case:** Starship succeeds, radically lowers launch costs, Starlink becomes a global monopoly with direct-to-cell, new markets (orbital data centers, point-to-point transport). Musk premium + AI/space hype could drive a massive initial pop. **Bear case:** The valuation assumes decades of 40%+ CAGR — almost unprecedented. High capex, regulatory risks (FAA/FCC), competition (Amazon Kuiper, China), and AI losses could lead to a sharp correction. For the valuation to hold post-IPO (and survive 2–3 month lock-up): - Successful Starship tests + rapid reusability - Starlink subscriber growth to 20M+ by end-2026 + margin stabilization - Bullish tech/AI market sentiment, no recession - Strong execution and clear “platform company” narrative Conclusion: The IPO will likely be hype-driven (private market already values it at $800B–$1.25T). But sustaining it will be very difficult without concrete Starship progress. Classic high-risk “story stock” — huge upside if everything clicks, 30–50%+ downside if it doesn’t. Focus on execution, not just vision. #SpaceX #SPCX #Starlink #Starship #IPO #cryptocurrency

Market Overview – May 26, 2026 The crypto market continues to look weak while stock indices keep setting new all-time highs. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei are at records. The AI sector remains the main magnet for capital. Oil is the key intraday driver. Oil premium is retreating on Iran negotiation signals. Brent fell below $100, WTI below $90. This eases some inflation fears, but doesn’t solve the rate issue — 10-year UST yields are still around 4.45–4.5%. Markets got relief on oil, but are losing hope for cheaper financing. Capital is returning to risk assets very selectively — mainly into AI, semiconductors, data centers, and infrastructure with clear revenue, capex, and margins. Crypto currently lacks such a broad narrative. BTC is no longer seen as the marginal beta of the global portfolio — AI has taken that role. The “macro hedge” narrative died in Q1 when BTC fell alongside tech during oil shocks. BTC–Nasdaq 30D correlation dropped from +0.65 in April to near zero. BTC–DXY returned to negative territory. ETH/BTC at 0.0275 — lowest since summer 2023. RENDER/BTC showing vertical breakout. Stablecoin supply at $323B signals dry powder, but it’s not translating into buying. MSTR holds 843,738 BTC at avg cost $75,700. Latest purchase was at a ~5% loss. Bitmine cut weekly ETH buys by 74%. Institutional accumulation is slowing across the board. Conclusion: Crypto is not in a local correction — it’s undergoing a fundamental reevaluation of its place in major investors’ portfolios. The “digital gold” and “high-growth tech asset” narratives have stalled. AI is taking the spotlight with real revenue and massive capex. This reevaluation looks especially painful against new stock market records and will likely last longer than those who bought at the peaks would like. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #AI #Oil

Is DeFi Now Russian Roulette with AI Bullets? OpenZeppelin co-founder Manuel Araoz (one of the most respected voices in Web3 security) publicly stated that he considers the entire DeFi space unsafe. Privately, he has long advised friends and family to exit even “blue-chip” protocols like Aave, MakerDAO, and Compound. Reason: AI coding agents have become superhuman at finding vulnerabilities. The asymmetry is deadly — defenders must secure everything, attackers need only one hole. Against the backdrop of April–May 2026 (record $600–750M+ in losses, including Drift and Kelp DAO), his words hit hard. **Strengths of Araoz’s position:** - Real asymmetry exists - AI dramatically accelerates bug discovery - Even audited protocols remain exposed to composability, oracle, governance, and opsec risks **Counterarguments:** - Many major hacks were not pure code exploits but social engineering, key compromises, and bad configs - Blue-chips have timelocks, circuit breakers, insurance, and continuous monitoring - OpenZeppelin itself continues auditing and improving security **Reality check:** DeFi is still one of the riskiest segments in crypto. AI has raised the difficulty level significantly, but this isn’t a sudden apocalypse — the industry has survived worse. **Key Takeaway:** Don’t panic or go all-in on euphoria. This is a serious insider wake-up call. Use it to reassess your risk, not to sell everything. Rational approach: - Conservative capital → BTC/ETH, stables, or off-chain - Active users → diversification, monitoring, simpler designs, hedging Security is no longer optional — it’s table stakes. #DeFi #CryptoSecurity #AI #Aave #KelpDAO

#NEAR Analysis **Fundamental Drivers** 1. AI PII Anonymization (May 19–20) — NEAR now automatically removes passwords, API keys and personal data from prompts before sending to Claude/ChatGPT/Gemini at framework level. Strong catalyst for the AI narrative. 2. AI Macro Tailwind — NVIDIA’s Q1 revenue +85% YoY gives positive backdrop to the entire AI sector. 3. Tokenomics Upgrade — Annual inflation cut from 5% to 2.5%. Protocol fees now go to NEAR buybacks — structural reduction in sell pressure. 4. “Agentic Web” Strategy — NEAR positioning itself as the execution layer for AI agents (payments, identity, cross-chain). 5. Key Integrations — Brave Nightly, OpenMind, Phala Network on NEAR AI Cloud. **Technical Picture** - Broke multi-year downtrend line (since Dec 2024) - Supertrend flipped to bullish after long bearish phase - Key trigger: weekly close above $2.20 Fibonacci extension targets: $2.30 (123.6%) → $2.50 (138.2%) → $2.87 (161.8%) → 200 EMA Resistance zones: $2.80–3.25, $4.20–4.60, $5.00–5.50 Looks like a shift from narrative play to real infrastructure positioning. #NEAR #AI #cryptosub

Market Overview – May 25, 2026 (Memorial Day Edition) The U.S. stock market closed its eighth consecutive green week. Against $100+ oil, a new Fed chair, and the Iran conflict, this looks like “strength.” In reality, it’s the momentum of an extremely strong earnings season, trend-following algos, and the perception that U.S. stocks currently offer the best risk/reward. Q1 earnings were impressive: • S&P 500 earnings growth +28.4% YoY • Revenue growth +11.6% • 84% of companies beat EPS estimates • 81% beat revenue estimates This is the best earnings growth since Q4 2021. Capital is flowing into markets with good liquidity, regulation, hedging tools, and investor protection. In this environment, crypto falls short on almost every front. Bitcoin is trading as a classic cyclical risk asset with long duration and high sensitivity to real yields. 1/ Macro Pressure 10-year UST holding 4.55–4.70%. DXY at 99.32 and heading toward 100. This puts pressure on non-US assets and commodities. Gold and crypto correlation is rising this spring — both are declining as the dollar strengthens. 2/ Bitcoin & Liquidity Narrative The popular “BTC moves with liquidity” thesis is facing a reality check. In January the market priced 3–4 Fed cuts in 2026. By March it was down to 2. By early May even one cut was in doubt. Last week the market started pricing in the possibility of a rate hike for the first time since fall 2024. On May 22 Kevin Warsh became the new Fed Chair. Trump is publicly pushing for rapid cuts, while Warsh has historically been more hawkish than Powell. This contradiction adds uncertainty. 3/ Low Volatility Illusion VIX = 16.70 (historically should be 22–25 in such conditions). Bitcoin realized volatility (BVIV) = 38% — 7-month low. The market has entered a paradoxical consensus: institutions are selling volatility en masse to generate yield in a sideways market. This artificially suppresses VIX and crypto volatility, creating an illusion of safety. Low volatility encourages systematic funds to add leverage. 4/ Crypto Specifics Coinbase Premium Index has been deep in the red since May 6 — US investors actively selling on spot. Spot Bitcoin ETFs: 6 consecutive sessions of outflows (~$1.26B). Strategy is preparing the market for potential BTC sales. Sentiment has dropped back into the fear zone. Paradox: BTC remains relatively stable despite all this pressure. Conclusion: The market is in a state of “apparent calm amid structural risks.” Crypto was sold off last week even as stock indices rose because its main narrative (“Trump-friendly Fed cuts”) completely fell apart. We are waiting for new narratives and drivers. They will appear soon. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #ETF #Fed #Oil

#ZEC Update Sharp surge in trading activity: • Futures Volume: $4.69B (+10.90%) • Spot Volume: $375.98M (+18.44%) Funding rate remains neutral. This setup increases the probability of another short squeeze. #Zcash #ZEC #Crypto #ShortSqueeze

#Genius +42% GENIUS Futures Volume: $289.73M (-6.10%) GENIUS Spot Volume: $34.85M (+7.02%) — 10.8% of futures volume We’re seeing a slight sell-off in the spot market. Funding rate remains neutral. Classic setup: retail shorts are feeding the whales’ longs. #Genius #GENIUS #Crypto #Perpetuals

Over $1.5 billion in long positions were liquidated over the past two days Over 200,000 traders have been affected by this in the last 24 hours The largest liquidation order occurred on Bitget-BTC and amounted to $32.44 million Meanwhile, U.S. stock indices closed in the green on Friday, near all-time highs. The hunt for liquidity in the crypto market continues in the absence of new drivers. I expect stabilization over the weekend Trading ranges BTC 74 - 77k ETH $1,960 - $2,200 SOL $78 - $88 HYPE $50 - $60 BNB $620 - $680 XRP $1.28 - $1.42

#HYPE Update – Hyperliquid Turns Regulatory Pressure into Growth Fuel May 14 Hyperliquid closes major deal with Coinbase: USDH is being phased out. USDC returns as AQA with 90% reserve yield (+$135–160M/year in buyback capacity). HashKey listing + OTC support. May 15 CME and ICE officially lobby CFTC and Congress against Hyperliquid. Allegations: manipulation of oil perps, sanctions circumvention, weak AML/KYC. May 15–17 Two major market makers withdraw ~$100M liquidity in BTC and ETH. Media frames it as “smart money fleeing” — bearish narrative intensifies. May 18–19 Aggressive short build-up. Funding turns negative. High-profit wallets place $417M in shorts vs $207M in longs. At the same time, a16z buys additional 372K HYPE for $16.9M at $45.43. May 18 Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP ETFs debut — programmatic buyer activated. May 19 SEC reverses course on third-party tokenized stocks — direct tailwind for HIP-3 equity perps. May 21 HYPE breaks $50. Short positions liquidated en masse. Open Interest jumps from $1.92B to $2.45B (new positions opening faster than old ones close). Conclusion: Hyperliquid team handled the pressure professionally. Negative sentiment was amplified, most traders exited spot and opened shorts. Meanwhile key investors (including a16z) accumulated at local highs. Expect an all-time high to be updated today. Target zone: **$62–$68**. Monitor futures positioning and funding rates. On-chain: $62–$70 already represents 2x–3x for a16z, Paradigm, and Arthur Hayes. #Hyperliquid #HYPE #Crypto #DeFi #RWA #Perpetuals

Market Overview – May 26, 2026 Markets are in a phase of risk rebalancing. The Middle East conflict has been going on for over two months, Brent is above $100, and we are on the edge of a stagflationary corridor. Markets are actively repricing the future cost of capital. The difficulty is that the market knows how to trade a recession, but it doesn’t know how to trade stagflation. In stagflation, bonds and stocks fall together and most portfolio models stop working. That’s why we see the anomaly: gold, silver, BTC, and equities are all under pressure without classic panic risk-off. 1/ Bonds Are the Main Driver 10-year U.S. yield rose to 4.687%, 30-year to 5.2% — multi-year highs. Treasuries have become the central discounting mechanism for the entire market. 30Y above 5% = pressure on gold, tech, crypto, and EM. 10Y above 4.6% = worsening conditions for Nasdaq and BTC. 2/ Equities: Distribution Phase S&P 500 has passed its local peak at 7,500 and is now in a “covert distribution” phase. This is not a correction or reversal — it’s a controlled redistribution of risk from large capital to momentum buyers. VIX at 18 shows no panic, which is exactly the hallmark of distribution: quiet outflow into cash. NVIDIA earnings this week is the headline event, but the market is already heavily hedged. Options are pricing a ±6.5% move. Even a strong report may trigger selling if 10-year yields stay above 4.6–4.7%. AI trading now depends heavily on the discount rate applied to future cash flows. 3/ Crypto: Buyers Taking a Breather BTC consolidating around $77K, ETH holding above $2,100. ETF outflows continue, uncertainty and fear are rising. Deconstructing the “BTC is dead” narrative: This story has repeated on the same script for 15 years. New players want BTC to become an institutional reserve asset with controlled volatility. Old players still treat it as illiquid global collateral that can be manipulated via derivatives and crowd psychology. For retail it’s “dying again.” For institutions it’s a new accumulation window. On-chain: • Exchange reserves at 2.21M BTC — 7-year low • Whales (1,000+ BTC wallets) net-bought 270,000 BTC in the past 30 days — largest monthly accumulation since 2013 Key zone: $65K–$70K. If it holds amid ETF outflows, strong DXY, and MSTR pressure, this will be a strong confirmation of a new institutional floor. Conclusion: Markets are breaking old correlations and forming new principles of money management. Right now the priority is not guessing direction, but preserving capital until the DXY closes below 98. That trigger could mark the start of a new phase where BTC, ETH, silver, AI beta, and blockchain stocks get their best setup in recent months. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #Oil #Fed #ETF

#BTC vs IGV Correlation Update Bitcoin’s correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) hit 0.73 in February — a five-year high — and at times approached 1.0. BTC and major SaaS stocks moved almost in lockstep: shared holders, shared liquidity, shared forced selling. The correlation has now broken for the second time. First break (Feb 28): Iran war began → correlation dropped from 1.0 to 0.13. BTC stabilized after the initial sell-off while IGV kept falling on AI-agent fears. By April it converged back to ~0.7. Second break (now): software is rising sharply while Bitcoin is falling. IGV +9% for the month (outperforming QQQ). Semiconductor ETF -7.2% over two sessions. ServiceNow +19% in 3 days, Snowflake +10%, Workday +8%. Meanwhile BTC dropped below $77K on May 18 with over $700M in long liquidations (89% longs). What’s happening: clear rotation inside tech — from overheated chips to previously battered software. BofA reinstated Buy on ServiceNow. Trump personally bought NOW, Adobe, and Workday in Q1. Atlassian and Twilio raised guidance. Narrative has flipped: SaaS went from “AI victim” to “AI beneficiary”. No meaningful flow into crypto yet — regulatory uncertainty, bearish sentiment, and a strong dollar are holding it back. But the setup is there. Both sectors are deeply oversold (IGV -35% from peak, BTC -50%). When profit-taking in AI infrastructure begins, money will hunt for oversold assets. Crypto is near the top of that list. Wall Street knows it — they’re just waiting for better returns elsewhere. Structural support for BTC remains: CLARITY Act on the horizon, Trump administration interest, and institutional adoption. Correlation has stayed above 0.5 for 18+ months and will likely return — most probably with BTC catching up to IGV. #Bitcoin #BTC #IGV #Tech #Crypto #AI

@durreadan01 Is that really true?

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Following its strong rally, ZEC received solid validation of its narrative in the mainstream press. The WSJ published a glowing piece on #Zcash, in which the project was presented almost as a return to “true crypto”: privacy, cypherpunk values, protection against financial surveillance, and an alternative to the overly public and institutional Bitcoin. And it worked. After the publication, ZEC did not go into the red, even though Bitcoin had dropped by 6% during that time. The Wall Street Journal article looks like professional PR. In my opinion, the goal is not only to attract new buyers but also to prevent holders from cashing out after a strong rally. One goal of ZEC’s covert marketing campaign, which has been ongoing for a year now, is clear: after four years of accumulation, to create new high levels of liquidity at which large holders will find it easier to gradually offload their holdings

Market Overview – May 26, 2026 The week ended with a clear shift in market narrative: the era of cheap money is ending faster than expected. Capital is restructuring portfolios, moving away from crowded long-duration assets. 1/ Equities S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for the second straight day. The rally that began in April is losing steam. AI/semiconductors and growth stocks are under pressure (Seagate -7%, Micron -6%, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta also weak). Capital is rotating into financials, energy, and defense. 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.68% — direct hit to consumers. 2/ Macro & Geopolitics DXY stable near 99.3. 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated. Oil is the dominant theme: Brent ~$110, WTI $103 after Trump called off strike on Iran at request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE. Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. IEA warns global oil reserves are declining fast. 3/ Crypto Market BTC lost key support at $80K and is now trading near monthly lows ($76,056–$77,479). ETH $2,080–$2,148. ETF flows: • Bitcoin ETFs: -$649M (IBIT accounted for $448M) • Ethereum ETFs: -$86M Strategy bought 24,869 BTC for $2B, but this wasn’t enough to hold the price. BTC is behaving as a long-duration, zero-cash-flow asset. Real yields at highs = mechanical selling pressure. 4/ Key Risks 1. Stagflation (slowing growth + high inflation) 2. Energy shock (any new attack on Gulf infrastructure) 3. Rate shock (10Y above 4.75–5%) 4. AI overhang (Nvidia earnings/forecast disappointment) 5. Crypto liquidations (over $1B in long liquidations in 3 days) 6. BTC close below $76K opens path to $69–72K 5/ Key Trends • End of the rate-cut cycle (shift to hold/hike) • Rotation into real assets (energy, defense, infrastructure) • Rising stock-bond correlation — bonds no longer a diversifier • Concentration risk in AI/semiconductors • Geopolitics dominating macro • Bitcoin failing as inflation hedge → crisis of confidence • Gold no longer acting as geopolitical hedge; becoming liquidity source Conclusion: The global economy is exiting the cheap-money era faster than anyone anticipated in April. Capital is repositioning aggressively. This is a painful phase for those who stayed in crowded long positions. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #Oil #Fed #ETF

Weekly Market Overview – May 11-17, 2026 The past week clarified several macro themes, and crypto once again proved to be one of the most sensitive risk assets. Bitcoin fell ~6%, Ether -10%, total market cap slipped to $2.55–2.60T. Classic mechanics: dollar strengthened → yields rose → metals, tech and crypto sold off. Main trigger: DXY recovered from 97.5 to 99.4. April inflation (CPI 3.8%, PPI 6.0%) forced the market to revise rate-cut expectations. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.6% — a clear blow to all non-cash-flow assets. Oil added fuel to the fire. Brent above $100 and WTI in triple digits brought back fears of a second inflation wave. Expensive oil → higher inflation → hawkish Fed → stronger dollar → liquidity drain from risk assets. Gold became the key indicator: even it fell amid inflation and geopolitics. This shows the market is trading liquidity and real yields, not “safe-haven” status. The same logic hit Bitcoin — the “digital gold” narrative temporarily gave way to Nasdaq-beta behavior. Equities: pressure came from tech. AI, semiconductors, high-multiple software and unprofitable growth names were already overheated. Massive profit-taking followed. Kevin Warsh officially became the new Fed Chair on May 15. The market will now hang on his every word until the June FOMC. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1B in outflows this week — the largest since late January. IBIT, FBTC and ARKB led the selling. Conclusion: USD, oil and yields have resumed squeezing the long-duration trade. Base case: Bitcoin stays in a broad $76K–$86K range. The $75K–$76K zone will be tested as key psychological and structural support. A return above $82K is possible only if DXY stabilizes, yields ease, and Nvidia delivers strong results. Iran situation and macro data will remain in focus over the next two weeks. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #Macro #ETF #Oil #Fed

@CodeWithAmann Tuta

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Market Overview – May 15, 2026 Key Reasons Behind Today’s Crypto Market Correction 1/ Deribit/CME Options Expiration $2B+ notional expired this morning with max pain at $80K. BTC settled near $81,070 and traded $80K–$81K. Long positions opened above $80K began closing → classic post-expiry profit-taking. 2/ Bond Market Pressure 30-year Treasury yields rose to 5.12%. Japan and UK yields also hit multi-year highs. Market fears persistent inflation, high oil prices and tighter policy. 3/ Stronger Dollar DXY gained +1.3% this week to 99.27. Rising dollar + rising real yields + tech weakness = reduced risk appetite. 4/ Stock Market Profit-Taking S&P 500 and Nasdaq were on track for their 7th straight week of gains and record closes. Natural pause after such a strong run. 5/ Kevin Warsh Effect Markets are adjusting to the new Fed chair nominee, viewed as more inflation-focused and cautious. 6/ Strategy Move Company repurchased $1.5B of 0% Convertible Senior Notes 2029 for ~$1.38B cash. SEC filing mentioned BTC sales as one funding source for the first time. 7/ Technical Breakdown BTC failed to hold firmly above $80K–$82K. Leveraged longs were liquidated after the break below $80K. 8/ ETF Flows Inflows remain volatile. After -$630M on May 13, +$131M on May 14. Weekly total likely negative. ETFs continue to provide long-term support but cannot prevent short-term corrections. Key takeaway: This is a healthy pullback and deleveraging after a strong risk-on rally. Leverage has been unwound, profits taken post-expiry, and risk reassessed amid higher yields and a stronger dollar. Critical zone for the weekend / early next week: **$78,000–$78,800**. Hold = healthy correction. Break below = opens path to $76K. Return above $80,500 = sell-off likely exhausted. #Bitcoin #Crypto #Markets #ETF #Macro #Fed