Smackdabble
14 posts

Smackdabble
@UTme33
I'm here for a long while. My posts, comments and replies....not as much.
Entrou em Kasım 2021
317 Seguindo144 Seguidores

Everyone asking “how can $GME buy 51% or 100% of eBay right away?” And whether they need to dilute is missing the point entirely.
RC came into GameStop with a 9% stake and no majority position. He pushed for three board seats, got them, and restructured the entire company from the inside out. Bed Bath & Beyond was a sub-10% stake where he still forced the board’s hand through a public letter campaign. Nordstrom and Alibaba, the stake was so small it didn’t even trigger the 5% SEC disclosure threshold, and he was still able to drive major changes.
The playbook has always been to secure board control first and scale ownership deliberately over time. Under ASC 323, once you cross 20% ownership and demonstrate significant influence, you can apply the equity method and start recognizing a proportionate share of the investee’s earnings directly on your income statement. Cross 50% and ASC 810 kicks in, which is full consolidation where their financials fold entirely into yours.
Nobody needed 51% on day one to control strategic direction, capital allocation, or management decisions. The seat at the table is the real asset. Ownership percentages are just the scoreboard that follows.
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@PaigeSully88 @mikeal_man Grow up, people can do what they want and you're a control freak if you have an issue with that.
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@foxenflask Okay, so you think the story has some truth but is not entirely true? Perhaps there are preliminary discussions and not necessarily an actual bid? That would work and you could be right.
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@rnewton7777 When would a guy who knows nothing, predict the coming price spike will level off and prepare for the eventual dip from the announcement? Does it get through one day with elevated price next week.....2 days...a week?
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Here's my take on the situation right now which can always change.
First, I'm going to assume that the WSJ article is accurate. They usually are. We can look back at the January 6th 2022 NFT Marketplace article and Feb 13th 2025 BTC article as examples. I find the timing on them somewhat interesting of course.
So if we assume that GameStop has been quietly building in a stake on Ebay, we then have to wonder the obvious: how do they pull it off? Do they issue debt and/or shares? Who helps (via the Investment Policy)? Did RC and/or others buy alongside GameStop already?
I obviously don't know all those things, but let's say that's the general plan:
1. Quietly Voltron Fund build position on Ebay.
2. Announce position and present terms.
3. Fundraise the remaining part of the deal.
But I'm going to let others ponder if Ebay is the right target, how GameStop can fundraise, and if the deal goes through. Instead, as always, I want to put this into some context.
August 15th 2019
GameStop had a Market Cap of 262 million. They had cash on hand of 543 million. Debt of 469 million. Roaring Kitty had already seen the value proposition and bought in. Michael Burry was in and had told the board to complete the share buy back "in elegance and stealth" (still love that phrase). They did (Thanks again Sherman). Unfortunately, while stock rose in the immediate term just eight months later things were looking even worse.
April 3rd 2020, Corona Virus
GameStop had a Market Cap of 178 million. They had cash on hand of 499 million. Debt of 419 million. The next eight months were quite different. Ryan Cohen discloses his stake, doubles down. Takes over. Dilutes a year later in April, then again in June. Unfortunately, however, the stock would once again, retrace.
April 23rd 2024
GameStop had a Market Cap of 3.1 billion. They had cash on hand of 1.2 billion. Debt of 28.5 million. Kitty buys big. Company dilutes three times. But by a year later, the stock once again, retraced.
March 13th, 2025
GameStop had a Market Cap of 9.8 billion. They had cash on hand of 4.6 billion. Debt of 20.5 million. They launch a BTC treasury initiative, Issue Converts, Buy BTC, Issue more Converts, then issue Warrants. But by the end of the year, the stock once again, retraced.
December 31st, 2025
GameStop had a Market Cap of 9.1 billion. They had cash on hand of 8.7 billion plus BTC holdings. Debt of 4.2 billion. They announced Ryan Cohen pay package, Burry buys in repeatedly, M&A discussions, Ebay target.
I don't know exactly what is going to happen next, but what I see is that at each critical moment, the stock retraces back very far to where the street wants to price GameStop, and then events unfold and absolutely staggering value is added to the company. First by share buy backs, then by dilution, again later by large dilutions, and later by leveraging via 0% Converts at $29.
A well oiled machine is in operation, steadily accreting in value so that the retraces back can't go as deep. The floor is lava.
So could this be the next chapter in GameStop's improbable 7 year story of going from 200m Market Cap to 100b?
It might actually happen. But Market Cap and Share Price are two totally different things.
If leadership is able to utilize Ryan Cohen's compensation package as a poison pill defensive moat while leveraging his and allies capital to offensively attack a larger target and bring it into the operation, that is incredibly clever. If they are able to leverage the premium mismatch between the acquirer and the target, that is also incredibly clever.
Because what that means is that if this deal goes through, no matter how I feel about Ebay, what could emerge out the other side of this sequence is a very large company with a totally different balance sheet. The new Market Cap and EBITDA can secure Ryan Cohen at the helm, rewarding him for him committing his capital on the offense to help GameStop grow the floor yet again.
There was a point in time when I was buying shares at $75. I didn't know what I was buying. I was buying because I thought supply and demand mattered. I was buying hype.
And there was a time when I was buying at $20. And I still didn't know what I was buying. And the street was probably thinking, why does this madman keep buying shares at $20? This is GameStop.
But maybe very soon there will no longer be a price mismatch between household investors and the street anymore. Because the floor will have finally risen through the collective and completely improbable set of circumstances that have taken that 200m Market Cap value proposition into talks of taking over a $46 billion Market Cap giant.
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@Eric_Scruffy @unusual_whales 100B market pay package won't happen on its own I suppose.
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@UTme33 @unusual_whales Yea I don’t see the vision.
I love the stock but not sure what the plan is here
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@Eric_Scruffy @unusual_whales LBO, taking on debt so I hope they pay less than it's worth or 17 isn't a meme like I thought
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@unusual_whales Isn’t $EBAY market cap close to 50 billion?
$GME only has close to 10 billion cash on hand.
How’s that work?
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@TheGameStopsNow @markusen What's my top target here new friend? I'm in 30cs with end of May expiry. 35? 40?
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