TechStockFundamentals@TechFundies
This period of time in SaaS reminds me of the living hell that is running a hedge fund when a sector dies and you have exposure.
1) You wake up, reach for your phone, see your stocks are down pre-market for the fifth day in a row on no news. Good morning!
Go get a bacon / egg / cheese and coffee from a deli - this will be the only good thing about your day and you know it.
2) Enter the office and your SaaS analyst has a grimace on his face. You don't want to have the same conversation you've had in your head and with him 30x a day for the past week so you just go eat your breakfast at your desk while reading news / research.
3) Your analyst comes in and you have the 121st version of the conversation. No new insights. You can sense he is beaten up so you go through 50 mental model / frameworks but neither clarity nor comfort arrives.
4) Morning meeting with the investment team.
Someone will invariably ask "So what's our view on this sector?" [meaning the sector that is equal to hell on earth right now]. This kicks off a conversation in which the other analysts who know absolutely nothing about the sector in question will start by asking gently probing questions of you and the analyst. This escalates to unanswerable questions that people only have the nerve to ask when a sector is dead. You have to graciously entertain these questions because the stocks are down so apparently anything goes. You start thinking that everyone in the room is stupid including and maybe mostly you.
After 20-30 min of abuse (maybe more) and at the point where you literally have no clue what you're even talking anymore ("when will this turn?), someone will mention that their buddy works at a rival fund where the PM sold the entire sector earlier that week. Another analyst will then mention "That fund is really smart" (implying you are stupid with which you agree wholeheartedly).
5) Meeting over. Now you and your analyst have another conversation, and you can see the fight leaving his body. You wonder how his physical body remains upright seeing as the spine is dissolving in real time but then realize you're not a doctor because you're not smart enough. Anyways, this chat may or may not culminate with the suggestion that "maybe we should take some off or just come back later". At this point, your brain floods with the history of your interactions including how the two of you have patiently been waiting for a "buying opportunity" JUST LIKE THIS. And now that it is here, didn't immediately go up, and, in fact, went down further, you are having to contemplate trimming or selling. You restrain yourself from smashing something but also understand your analyst who doesn't want to destroy his year by January 16th and die like this. Who does?
6) At this point, you realize you are simultaneously fighting 1) the market, 2) your primary analyst, 3) your other analysts, 4) your competition including QQQ which only goes up. And you feel very, very alone in this investment. No joke, this part truly sucks.
Most times, you probably trim some of whatever is hurting. Because at least you did something. And if it all goes to hell, you can sell more and say / feel you took the right action. And if it goes higher, well, at least you somewhat stayed. Honestly, at this point, no one will give you any credit for your actions anyways and you're just going to get whatever potential discredit results. It rarely pays or is feasible to be the hero here.
7) Day is almost over. 10 minutes to close or maybe right after, your largest, most "proactive" institutional investor like Blackstone will email "Hey - got a second to chat about Saas?". Or maybe your most unsophisticated investor. Usually both. So then you hop on the phone and explain what you know, what you think and what you did or plan to do. This is the point where having a 10 out of 10 investor like Blackstone helps because they are professional and get it so long as you are sticking to your process.
8) Go workout and feel a bit better. Go home and try to be present with the family for a bit. Then whiskey time and mentally go over everything again. Alone. To make sure you hopefully aren't impairing capital permanently and, if so, have a plan.
And that plan is to fire everyone and become a monk.
[To my prior SaaS analyst and team, this is not really about you. I mean, you probably did this in some shape or form to me on many occasions. But it's ok. Everyone is doing what they think is best / most helpful at the moment. And I probably did the same thing when I was in your shoes. Just trying to laugh about team investment dynamics during meltdowns and grateful I only have to answer to myself during this SaaS drawdown. So much simpler! Hope you all are well].