Deep Value

White House confirms more US-Iran peace deal talks are actively being discussed, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. That disconnect is the real story. Trump tied the ceasefire to the strait reopening, but ships still aren't moving freely. Whether these talks produce anything concrete or just more headlines is the question the oil market is pricing in right now.

Gold held onto its recent gains after U.S.-Iran negotiations cooled fears about an oil-driven inflation spike, with crude pulling back and the dollar softening. The setup is unusual. Gold usually climbs on fear. Here it's being supported by the absence of fear, specifically the possibility that an Iran deal removes a major upside risk to oil prices and gives central banks more room to stay on hold or cut. Lower oil, softer dollar, and reduced inflation pressure are all running in the same direction right now.

Central banks that spent years hoarding gold are now selling it, and the reason is simple: war costs money. Some sovereign holders are liquidating bullion to raise cash as military and economic pressures from the ongoing Gulf conflict force hard choices about reserves. Gold had been the go-to safe haven asset during the accumulation years, but when a government needs liquidity fast, even gold gets sold. This is a notable shift. Central bank buying was one of the key structural drivers propping up gold prices over the past few years. If that demand pillar starts reversing, even modestly, it changes the supply-demand picture for the metal going forward.

Vance confirms the US is actively negotiating with Iran. This is a direct statement from the Vice President, adding official weight to what had been described earlier as cautious diplomacy. The last two tweets on this topic covered his skepticism and then a shift to optimism. Now he is putting it plainly: talks are happening.

Vance is now striking a more optimistic tone on the Iran nuclear talks, saying he feels good about where things stand. That's a notable shift from earlier today when he was emphasizing deep mistrust between the two sides. The back and forth from the US delegation suggests the talks are still very much in motion, with sentiment swinging by the hour.

Vance is tempering expectations on the US-Iran talks, saying the deep mistrust between the two sides is not going away quickly. This comes as negotiations have been ongoing, and Vance's framing suggests the White House is bracing for a long road rather than a fast deal. Not exactly the language markets want to hear heading into another round of talks.

Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler is calling $MSFT a buy right now, arguing the stock may be forming a bottom after its recent underperformance. His thesis centers on capex payoff. Microsoft has been spending heavily on AI infrastructure and Moerdler thinks the financial returns on that spending are about to start showing up in the numbers, which he expects to act as a catalyst for the stock.

S&P 500 closed Tuesday less than 1% away from its all-time high set on January 28, and stock futures are little changed heading into Wednesday. Two straight days of gains have the index knocking on the door of record territory. Whether it breaks through depends heavily on any new developments out of the Middle East and what tone Fed speakers strike this week.

$NVDA just closed out a 10-day winning streak, its longest run in months. The rally comes as confidence in the AI trade quietly rebuilt itself after a rough stretch earlier this year. Blackwell demand, data center spending commitments from hyperscalers, and fading fears around export restrictions all gave bulls a reason to come back in. The stock is up roughly 50% from its April lows.

Secretary of State Rubio met with Egypt's foreign minister today to discuss a potential Iran ceasefire, the latest sign that back-channel diplomacy is picking up steam. Egypt has historically played a quiet but important mediating role in Middle East conflicts. Rubio choosing Cairo as a stop suggests the US is working to build a regional coalition around any eventual deal rather than going it alone.

Venezuela's government is pushing oil companies for input on the energy sector while making clear that US sanctions need to go. Jorge Rodriguez says the licensing framework lacks long-term legal certainty, which is exactly the argument major oil producers have used to avoid committing serious capital to Venezuelan fields. $CVX has been one of the few US companies operating there under an OFAC license, and that license status has always been the central question for anyone looking at Venezuelan crude production. If sanctions come off, Venezuela could eventually add meaningful supply back to global oil markets. It is sitting on the world's largest proven oil reserves but has seen output collapse from over 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to a fraction of that today. Any credible path toward lifting restrictions would be a supply story worth watching.

$ORCL closed higher for the second straight day as the software sector continued to bounce, and the company expanded its capacity agreement with Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy was the real story today, closing up 22% on the news. The deal is tied to AI data center power demand, which is becoming one of the most important infrastructure themes in the market right now. Data centers need massive, reliable power, and fuel cell companies like Bloom are increasingly being seen as part of the solution.

Kim Jong Un says he is ready to meet with Trump at any time to help mediate between the US and Iran. This is a notable offer given North Korea's historically close ties with Tehran. Whether Trump takes it seriously is another question, but any new diplomatic channel involving the Hermit Kingdom and Iran in the same sentence is worth watching.

UK 10-year gilt yields just hit 4.9158%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, as the government sold a record £15 billion in bonds through its 2036 syndication. The demand was staggering. £148 billion in orders poured in for that £15 billion sale, nearly a 10x oversubscription. That kind of appetite suggests global investors still want UK debt, but they are demanding a serious premium to hold it. Higher yields mean higher borrowing costs for the British government at a time when fiscal pressure is already a major political flashpoint in London. Worth watching how this feeds into the broader developed market bond story. Gilt yields moving to post-2008 highs does not happen in a vacuum.

Novo Nordisk moved higher after announcing a broad partnership with OpenAI aimed at speeding up drug development and workforce training. The deal is notable because it puts one of the biggest pharma companies in the world directly in the AI development pipeline, not just using off-the-shelf tools but building something more integrated. For a company that has been under pressure after disappointing obesity drug data earlier this year, this is a clear pivot toward a growth narrative the market can get excited about.

$AMZN just closed out its seventh straight day of gains, its longest winning streak since 2022. The Globalstar acquisition is the catalyst. The deal gives Amazon a direct path into satellite connectivity, which ties into its broader push to compete with Starlink on low-orbit internet access. Add in the steady AWS tailwinds and the stock has quietly been one of the better performers in mega-cap tech over the past two weeks.

Bitcoin moved up to test a resistance level Tuesday that has kept a lid on the rally for months, with technical analysts saying a clean break could open the door to $98,000. The level in question has rejected multiple attempts at a breakout. The fact that it's being tested again after a sustained run higher is what has chart watchers paying attention this time around.

IMF chief Georgieva is threading a needle on central bank policy, warning that moving too fast to tighten could choke off growth, but leaving the door open to action if inflation starts spreading beyond energy prices. The key phrase is "secondary inflation effects." That's central bank language for inflation bleeding into wages and services, which is the scenario that turns a commodity shock into a full repricing of rate expectations globally.

IMF chief Georgieva is now warning that April's market impact from the Gulf crisis could be worse than March, pointing to tankers leaving the region that may not come back and countries quietly stockpiling oil reserves. The stockpiling detail is significant. When nations start hoarding supply, it typically accelerates the price spike rather than cushioning it. This is a supply crunch compounding on top of a shipping disruption, and the IMF is flagging it at the top level.

IMF chief Georgieva is warning that the oil shock is pulling focus away from risks she considers just as serious, including AI-related financial instability and broader systemic concerns in global markets. The comment lands at an interesting moment. Markets have been laser-focused on Hormuz and crude prices, but Georgieva is essentially flagging that the next crisis might not be the one everyone is watching.

The S&P 500 closed up 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 finished 1.8% higher today, giving the Nasdaq its longest winning streak since 2021. The driver was the same theme that has been carrying this market all week: hopes that US-Iran nuclear talks lead somewhere real. Risk appetite is back in a big way. The S&P is now knocking on the door of all-time highs.