@AdamMancini4 Hey Adam, love the NL. Any reason why 7135 not a tradeable level (2 touch shelf)? Is that bc it’s in between a couple of better levels / already used up at this point?
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Bryce Schilling
4.9K posts
Closing update #ES_F: Nice tag of 7200. We got long on the 7085 Failed Breakdown yesterday (7160 reclaim also a long given this morning). Today's targets were 7174, 7178, 7193, 7200 (hit). 7211+ next week. Newsletter out soon with the next set of entries from here for Sunday
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With work done today - just let the runner pay now. Primary entry was the textbook (use this to study the setup) Failed breakdown of 7085 at 1:55PM yesterday. We are +110 now. I also gave 7160 reclaim this AM.
Targets were 7174, 7178, 7193 (Hit). 7200, 7211 next then onto 7239
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We our running targets nicely now. Two entries were given live & in newsletter: 1) The 1:50PM 7085 Failed Breakdown yesterday. +110 points now 2) The 7160 reclaim, given this morning. Targets were 7174 (hit), 7178 (hit), 7193 (hit). Ride runner for 7200, 7211 bonus now.
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@AdamMancini4 Any reason why you wouldn’t use 5pt zone with 52? We had a couple touches there, but see you only waited for the 5 point danger zone on the 48
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Closing update #ES_F: Slow session but levels respecting. 6848 to 6872=a tight bull flag. We held 6848 as posted. 6861 was 1st resistance, here now. 6872, then 6900+ if we can continue. Newsletter out soon with next batch of entries
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There's 6848 support hit in #ES_F but volatility is still non-existent. Extreme low quality conditions here with excessive noise, chop, trapping. Trade light or not at all.
Bulls must push fast here to see 6861, 6872 (6848-72=a tight flag). 6882, 6900 above. 6840, 6826-21 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Volatility remains 0 in #ES_F. As warned, no volatility=no trades. Runners still working from Tuesday's 6592 Macro Failed Breakdown. 6848-6872=a tight flag. Today's 1st target was 6882, we ran there, rejected back into the range. 6848=support (watch traps). 6821-26 below
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@AdamMancini4 When we have an sig low plus major level that needs to be reclaimed, would you use non acceptance protocol on the level (I.e., pt buffer at 6597)? Or simply wait for 6592 to clear (since it’s 7 points above the sig low)? Or is that only for a shelf w another significant low?
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Its the typical Sunday gap down in #ES_F and everyone knows the drill. 6592 remains key support which was gapped below at the open. Bulls need to backtest it now and recover to see 6604, 6616, 6624+
If the dip continues, 6553, then 6525-30 are next supports down from here
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@AdamMancini4 @Porterhous90889 Was the 6603 too quick for you? I took it and made some points 7. But looking back/reviewing, i might’ve pulled the trigger too quick (got 13>20 after we held above the 5 point zone for a couple min)
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@Porterhous90889 Smaller move than expected so far - market may be tired
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Levels continue to respect in #ES_F and getting another micro dip now. 6592 was support given 8am. It held. Targets were 6624 (hit), 6638 (hit), 6647 (we spent 2hrs there, then rejected), 6672 (not yet)
6624, 6592 remain supports. We sell if 6592 fails only.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Levels are certainly respecting well. There is nothing to do but hold runner in #ES_F. 6592 was support given at 8am. It held almost exact for low of day. Targets given were 6624 (hit), 6638 (hit), 6647 (we've been here 1hr, holding almost exact). There is just 6672 left above
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@AdamMancini4 Hey Adam. Love the NL. Is the 17 low at about 2:50 PM CT actionable? Or are those lows from tape bombs more random / do you discredit them?
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Closing update #ES_F: No change, bears control until 6575 (starts the squeeze) then 6592 ultimately recover. This is the 9th Thursday in a row ES has been red. If grind continues 6524, then 6505 next below. Newsletter out soon talking triggers in advance of 6575
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Little to do now in #ES_F but wait for next trigger. Today's targets given 8am was 6604 (hit), 6623 (hit), 6638. We got to 6623 then sold. 6575 failure then triggered lower and supports were 6542 (spent an hour here), 6524 (incoming).
6505 below. 6575 must recover to squeze
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Slow grind down now in #ES_F with our points in the books little to but wait. Today's target off 6575 support (6592 reclaim trigger) were 6604 (hit), 6623 (hit), 6638 (not yet). Bulls must recover 6575 now to see 6592. Bears control below 6592. 6542, 6524 next supports down
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@BrunnerTrades @AdamMancini4 Can’t speak for AM, but I always do the higher of the two
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@AdamMancini4 @bryce_schilling In these cases do you apply NAP to 37 or 35? Was interesting to see you applied NAP to the 92 shelf yesterday and not the 82 low
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Yesterday was about 2 levels: 6593 & 6623 in #ES_F with reclaims triggering long. I posted here & newsletter 4pm that 6623 reclaims trigger up. We got it. Targets were 6638, 6647, 6664 (hit)
Plan today: Ride runner. 6647, 6638 (watch traps)=supports. Next targets=6678, 6690-95
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Very typical #ES_F to wait until the market closes to run, but we are pushing targets. Newsletter just sent out before the pop stated 6623 reclaims trigger long. Targets posted 1hr ago were 6638 (hit), 6647 (hit), 6664 (hit). 6690-95 remains only outstanding target. Ride runner
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@AdamMancini4 You know AM, today just isn’t the day for me to be trading. I’ll happily sit this one out and wait for a better setup tomorrow.
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That took its time but there's 6623 resistance hit in #ES_F. Protect your gains now, let a small lotto runner handle the next leg up. An hour ago, after hitting 6577 support, I posted that 6592 reclaim triggers us long.
Target I gave was 6623. We hit. 6638, 6647, 6664 bonus
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Extremely choppy action today in #ES_F. As warned this morning *take profits level to level*. After hitting 6577 support, I posted 50mins ago that 6592 must reclaim to rally. It reclaimed, and we went +18. 6623 remains heavy res above. Bulls must clear to see 6638, 6647, 6664+
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Great push to start the day and we are already running targets in #ES_F. Newsletter readers got the early entries, but I posted at 7:58AM here that "6648 reclaims see 6664, 6690+". We reclaimed 6648 just after. 6664 (hit), 6690 (almost here)
Ride runner. 6707, 6716 next up
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Today we saw the power of the Failed Breakdown in #ES_F. Given to newsletter readers 4pm Friday & here 6pm, traps of 6524 trigger up. We got it at 6pm and rallied to 6560. We got it again 7am and rallied *220 points* Plan today: 6623, 6591=supports. 6648 reclaims see 6664, 6690+
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@ESFTrader56 @OnTheHooch @AdamMancini4 @sugariscancer Go look at a 1 min chart. We barely held above 12 for not even a minute. And if you use the 5 pt danger zone, that def didn’t trigger. No reason to be early on OPEX day!
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@OnTheHooch @AdamMancini4 @sugariscancer Yeah I agree, I just hate the gaslighting that bear markets are the best for FBD traders and that you profit more when bears control but it is so clearly not the case from the bunch of FBD traders I trade along with and they all have 5+ years of experience as well.
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We are now have 0 volatility in #ES_F. 6592 was support as posted with sweeps and recoveries actionable. We swept it, rallied to 6608 1st resistance which has ben a ceiling since. If we get vol again and it clears, 6623 magnet is above. From there, we bottom to 6635, 6647+
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After incredible volatility (and 3 setups) to start the day, its now pure chop in #ES_F. Setup #1 was the 6612 Failed breakdown, triggered 630AM. We ran to 6647 target. Setup #2 was 6592 sweep (held nicely), and we ran to 6608. No change: Above is 6623 magnet, then 6635, 6647+
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@AdamMancini4 Ah gotcha. Might’ve misinterpreted your letter. Appreciate the insight. Best $23 I’ve ever spent is on your NL!
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@bryce_schilling It is a failed breakdown, i talked about it in the newsletter. It was avtusllly Mondays first target as well and already hit!
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It's classic #ES_F to trigger a high quality long mins before the close. In yesterday's 4pm newsletter I posted Failed Breakdowns of the big September 2025 low ~6532 would trigger up. We just triggered, and went +30. With war headlines over the weekend though *lock in most gains*
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Closing update #ES_F: Sraight forward session today with slow grind down after morning volatility. This is identical action to last Fri where we closed at the lows, then ripped 150 points Mon. Bulls need to recover 6591 to get started. Newsletter out soon with downside entries
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@AdamMancini4 Any reason why 6592 wasn’t a FBD? Looked like a nice V shaped low from September. Is it bc that “low” or level is from so long ago?
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Note: Newsletter will be out in 10mins with next batch of entries as well as targets for this squeeze. We are at a very important inflection point now
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@AdamMancini4 Not sure why people care so much about upside targets 300 points away and worried about when / if we get their soon. People clearly don’t understand markets. Your P&L doesn’t care about where the price is at. Appreciate all you do. Love the newsletter. have a good weekend!
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Its been a lucrative session today (despite being OPEX) and little to do now as we slowly grind down. Setup #1 was 6612 Failed breakdown. We got to 6647 1st target exact. Setup #2 was the 6592 support. We got to 6608 1st target.
6591 must recover to bounce. Bears control<6623
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We are now have 0 volatility in #ES_F. 6592 was support as posted with sweeps and recoveries actionable. We swept it, rallied to 6608 1st resistance which has ben a ceiling since. If we get vol again and it clears, 6623 magnet is above. From there, we bottom to 6635, 6647+
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@AdamMancini4 Curious, did you pass on the O/N low at 6705ish because it was too quick? We broke it by three points then ran up to 6724 or so. I guess by the time it held two minutes, we lost steam and came back down.
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Closing update: Untradaeble chop as warned since 11am, but these choppy days usually trend into the evening (after all the over-traders are eaten up). 6716-20, 6739, 6758 remain above and bears control until 6758 recovers. Newsletter out soon talking next entries from here
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As I've posted since 11am, this is untradeable chop. Just hold a runner risk free. 6706 reclaim was trigger up though posted 11:15AM and we ran to 6716-20 first target, then back down for more chop
Same drill. 6706 reclaims with force see 6716-20, 6739, 6758. Bears control<6758
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
As posted 1hr ago, its untradable midday chop in #ES_F but we are still getting triggers. 6706 reclaims trigger up as posted 11:15AM. We triggered shortly after. Targets given were 6716-20 (hit), 6739, 6758 Bears retain full control until 6758 recovers later. Ride runner
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@AdamMancini4 Easy work with the 16-20 action. Got 31>35 (didn’t want to babysit it all night so took a quick trim). In a runner and looking to relax until the next big scary flush 😎💪
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Closing update #ES_F: No surprise where we are pinned right to 6769. We got our high quality long after CPI this morning on the 6769 trap, ran to 6818 final target, then chopped rest of day. We should trend soon. 6769 reclaim to move back up. Newsletter out soon with entries
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The 6769 trap played out over and over in #ES_F. The 1st (as always) was the largest. As posted 8:44AM traps of 6769 take us to 6818 final target. We trapped to 6764, ran to 6818. We just got it again though to 6778-82 1st target
6769 must reclaim to rally. 58, 42-39=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its been straightforward day in #ES_F, all targets done. Its all about 6769. 6769 trap was our long trigger, given at 4pm to newsletter readers and live at 8:44AM. My final target was 6818-22, hit exact We just flushed 6769 again, now back above. Same slate: 6778-82, 6794, 6818
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@AdamMancini4 Basically 95% on trades past 2 months, appreciate your NL 💪🏼 curious, why did you move your runner below 6811? Wouldn’t the PDL from Wednesday be at the 6770 level or am I missing something reading/interpreting?
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Closing update #ES_F: Nice late day squeeze and no shortage of setups today. 6782 was support. It held for over an hour, quick trap below, and rip. I posted 6795 reclaim sees 6813, hit. 6829, 6843 next, then we start next real leg up. Newsletter out soon with next entries
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Levels respecting well in #ES_F. 6813 was long trigger given 11:12AM and it took us to 6842 "brick wall resistance". 6782 was then support as posted and its been the low of day almost exact.
6795 was 1st up, and above here we see 6813. No rally until that clears. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6782 support exact in #ES_F. Today started slow but ended up with many setups. 6813 reclaim was long trigger given 11:12AM. We recovered & ripped to 6842 target which I called "brick wall resistance" 6795 recovery back to 6813. No rally until 6813 clears. 6772 below 6782
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@Adam694663 @AdamMancini4 After 12:18 Pm CT, never held 2 points above zone for longer than a minute. Could’ve taken it at 12:00 and made something but nothing after
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@bryce_schilling @AdamMancini4 It did and even had 5 minutes of acceptance
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@AdamMancini4 Relatively easy day in my opinion. Two A+ trades. Only opening platform unless we take out 6773. Have a good day! 🫡
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There's 6782 support exact in #ES_F. Today started slow but ended up with many setups. 6813 reclaim was long trigger given 11:12AM. We recovered & ripped to 6842 target which I called "brick wall resistance"
6795 recovery back to 6813. No rally until 6813 clears. 6772 below 6782
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
This has been quality day trading now in #ES_F. I posted at 11:12AM to watch for recoveries of 6813. Right after, we recovered 6813. Target was 6842 which I described as a brick wall. We hit 6842 10mins ago, back down again. 6813 recovery to work back up. 6795, 6782 are below
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@AdamMancini4 Took 53 to 59. Too easy. Shutting platform down unless we take out PDL which feels unlikely
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We are getting a little bit more movement in #ES_F but still slow. 6822 reclaim was long trigger yesterday with 6884 target and its a ceiling since after chop all night.
Watch for recoveries of 6842 now to see 6855, 6863-66 next up. 63-66 must reclaim to rally. 6829, 6822 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday at 7:50AM I posted the 6822 Reclaim triggers long in #ES_F. Main target was 6884 and ES agrees: We've been here nearly 24hrs. This is now extreme, low quality chop. Dont force trades Plan today: 6863-66=support (watch traps). 6876, 6888, 6899 above. 6855, 6842=supports
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