Commodity Curator

Trump: 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon

TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: CHINA IS VERY HAPPY THAT I AM PERMANENTLY OPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. I AM DOING IT FOR THEM, ALSO - AND THE WORLD. THIS SITUATION WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN. THEY HAVE AGREED NOT TO SEND WEAPONS TO IRAN. PRESIDENT XI WILL GIVE ME A BIG, FAT, HUG WHEN I GET THERE IN A FEW WEEKS. WE ARE WORKING TOGETHER SMARTLY, AND VERY WELL! DOESN’T THAT BEAT FIGHTING??? BUT REMEMBER, WE ARE VERY GOOD AT FIGHTING, IF WE HAVE TO - FAR BETTER THAN ANYONE ELSE!!! PRESIDENT DJT

Iran's Revolutionary Guards: Will not allow imports and exports in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman, if the US blockade in the Hormuz Strait against Iran's vessels continues

TRUMP SAYS AN END RESULT REGARDING IRAN MAY COME SOON.

U.S. DEPLOYS THOUSANDS MORE TROOPS TO MIDDLE EAST AS TRUMP AIMS TO PUT PRESSURE ON IRAN.

Another update: while there haven't been any ships from Iran that have fully exited the strait (from what I can tell--AIS might not be accurate), have seen some data to suggest that there are Iran-bound ships that have *entered* the strait. One appears to have come from China.

TRUMP SAYS WE'RE MORE 'INCLINED' TO GO TO PAKISTAN FOR IRAN TALKS

More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports. During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. U.S. forces are supporting freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.

Trump Admin. Official: Have all the components of a deal, but it's not finalized yet - Fox News

RICH STARRY (IMO: 9773301) has U-turned. The vessel had 'allegedly' departed Sharjah Anchorage on 13 April and was sailing laden, with a reported draught of 11.3 metres, while signalling China as its destination. RICH STARRY is sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for its association with Iran. RICH STARRY resumed outbound transit of the SoH, despite Trump’s blockade in what will be the first test for the US. However, RICH STARRY abrubptly changed course heading northbound again about an hour ago, likely to avoid interdiction. Earlier, Sanctioned tanker ELPIS (IMO: 9212400) also reduced speed to <1kt. The US blockade seems to be in force.

IRAN WEIGHS PAUSING ITS HORMUZ SHIPPING TO AVOID DERAILING TALKS - REPORTS

Some of the Iran-linked oil / refined products tankers that attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz have either stopped or performed U-turns. The blockade, so far, appears effective. Remember, the vessels are not stopped in the middle of the strait, but on the approaches.

14 ships went through SoH from 13 April until now. 6 inbound: 2x Lloyd’s Shadow Fleet, 1x Sanctioned, 2x linked to Iran Trade (en route Bandar Abbas), 1x non-Iran trade. 7 outbound: 1x Lloyd’s Shadow Fleet, 3x Sanctioned, 2x linked to Iran Trade (1 from Bandar Abbas & 1 from Bandar Khomeini), 1x non-Iran trade. Hong Kong-flagged LPG tanker TRIMMU 3 (Lloyd's LPG Shadow Fleet) approached Larak from the East and turned outbound and remains in the Gulf of Oman. Sanctioned tanker ELPIS (IMO: 9212400) reduced speed and changed course as she exited the SoH - suggesting perhaps an interdiction or course change to avoid interdiction. Multiple vessels turned around as the US blockade on Iranian ports was announced, but seemingly resumed transit (Liberia-flagged Bulk carrier CHRISTIANNA (IMO: 9596703) after departing Bandar Khomeini, Iran. RICH STARRY (IMO: 9773301) after departing Sharjah). The (false) Botswana -flagged OSTRIA (IMO: 9260067), also turned around at the same time as the blockade went into effect. OSTRIA then headed towards Sharjah and switched off AIS. There is no real clear direction of what the blockade looks like. The location of US assets is unknown, and it is unknown where the interdictions will take place. Personally, I would be surprised if the US has warships in the SoH - so would expect any interdictions to take place in at least the Northern Arabian Sea rather than SoH.