Icarus

@yianisz Stop writing your tweets with slop LLMs. So cringe

$NVDA is not the dotcom tell; it is the toll booth people keep mistaking for a billboard. May concentrated gains in AI-adjacent names, and yes, that rhymes with 2000. But the market still doesn’t get the difference between narrative multiples and signed capex. If AI spend narrows, money does not leave the trade first; it crowds into the supplier with pricing power. Honestly, this bubble argument still feels too lazy.

@kawhi_ring Cope. Most important spur for the culture since manu. Rescuing the nba single handedly

Lost all respect for Wemby this series. In my eyes he was a dominant promising young player, now he’s an over emotional, immature, dirty player who flops and calls himself ethical. Kawhi having his career half ruined by dirty plays makes me hate dirty players, Spurs fans are now forced to like this bs

@TrixInvestments Agree naz elbow wasnt great. But refs arent protecting him so he needed to show some dawg. He took his punishment. The elbow to hartenstein? Get a grip. Nothing in that. Hartenstein been dirty all series. Do you watch the games?

@TrixInvestments Whats my bias? All your "evidence" is just nothing? No one knows what wemby was referring to when saying hes proud of Carter? And whats wrong with hard fouls in the playoffs? Caruso does that all the time. Okc flop every play and a history of being dirty

The fact that people can support such a dirty player like Wemby just amazes me. This has nothing to do with Spurs beating OKC, but just straight facts on what he has done so far: 1. Tells 3rd string subs to commit“hard fouls” on OKC after the game is almost over. 2. Elbows Reid in the jaw 3. Elbows Hartenstein in the face then flops directly after 4. Congratulations Carter and says “I’m proud of you” after he tackles Shai, not once… but twice.. Welcome to the new face of the NBA

@SheaSerrano As good as it gets.

timmy manu parker wemby castle harper it’s happeningggggggggg 😭😭😭😭😭

@SpursTalk1 Get keldon outta there!! 2 way zero

@DevonBirdsong @poundingtherock Yea thats good but can he get me 15 2nd half rebs and 18pts plz?

The thing that’s most terrifying about Wemby isn’t so much that his skills are going to continue to develop, but that he’s going to get more and more consistent. A consistent Wemby, even at current skill level, becomes the dominant force in the league.

@poundingtherock Why only 11 harper mins? He should be playing all of champ or keldon mins. Much better rebounder defender and shot maker

Great Spurs run at the end of that quarter to take a 3 point lead into halftime

@stevejones20 Yep. Now tell the story woth offensive rebounds and it doesnt seem unusual. Grateful to be up 7 as a spurs fan

Spurs shoot 57% from the field in the first quarter, 4 of their 5 starters scored 5 or more, shot 50% from 3 and are only up 7 at the end of the first. This series.

@Fjieieiedbbdx @GaryMarcus Gary always been way off on things because hes *directionally* wrong. In a few years his takes will age like sour milk. I just hope hes not investing this "thesis" of his. He will lose too much money

@GaryMarcus Why would anyone trust your horribly inaccurate predictions? You had absolutely no clue how far LLMs would get. Total disgrace.

Hot take on what comes next, after the sudden decline of tokenmaxxing: - OpenAI will struggle - with the decline of tokenmaxxing Anthropic will struggle (aside from this quarter) to make a profit - Google will catch up to Anthropic - some Chinese companies might, too - LLMs will become commodities; margins will be very very thin - Most of the companies that invested massively in them will struggle to make back their investments - SpaceX’s AI efforts will flail - Nvidia will eventually decline, once all of the above becomes widely recognized.

@GaryMarcus @Vivek4real_ We have had massive advances so one of the core predictions is a miss here

@Vivek4real_ told everyone, over two years ago:

LARRY ELLISON: AI IS RAPIDLY COMMODITIZING BECAUSE MOST MODELS ARE TRAINED ON THE SAME PUBLIC INTERNET DATA. THE REAL COMPETITIVE EDGE ISN’T THE MODEL ANYMORE — IT’S ACCESS TO EXCLUSIVE, PROPRIETARY DATASETS. THAT MAY BE THE ONLY MOAT LEFT.

@bldinsilence_ @Vivek4real_ This has been v obvious for like 3yrs

@Vivek4real_ I said this like 2 months ago, to see a billionaire come to the same conclusion is very validating

@NateDuncanNBA This is the time to get Carter Bryant and keldon going.

It's a slight advantage for OKC that their garbage time units are all good players, whereas the Spurs' includes Plumlee, Biyombo, and Olynyk. So Spurs have to keep their starters in longer.

@Matthew_Tynan Washing over g1 dylan is crazy

Welcome to the series, Dylan

@WilliamBirdeau @Eyal__Weiss Ive thought that before and been proven wrong

@Eyal__Weiss Predictions is for the fun part of it. But I definitely think we won't see $LMND at these prices for much longer.

People will look back at these times and wonder why they didn't buy more $LMND under $60. It will appear to be so obvious in hindsight. I think after Q3 + Investor Day in November, we won't see $LMND under $100 anymore. What do you guys think?

@sobieski902 @PaperBagInvest Yes a group chat

@PaperBagInvest what about an group chat in X Chat?

This $LMND Community is being shut down by X on May 30th. As far as I understand, I believe all of our tweets in here will be deleted. It's very sad, but we have no say in this matter. Two solutions I'm proposing: Join my Patreon Discord for free. I'm changing my Discord so it's free to join. There are 203 members there currently and the discussion has gradually increased as the members have grown. The link to join is here. If the discord grows too large or is full of spammers, then I may need to rethink it's requirements and go back to paid members only and/or have more moderators, etc. But it's a good place to continue this direct back and forth discussion with other investors who look in depth into their investments. discord.gg/4kKshQqd Continue posting on X. Without a community stream, it may be harder to curate all $LMND related posts the same way we can now. That said, I think if we continue to use the ticker symbol $LMND in posts and possibly other hash tags (maybe #Lemonapes, or #LMNDcommunity) then we could curate things around those. If you have an idea for a clean and simple hashtag, please comment it below. What I like about X is it's a completely open discourse full of bulls and bears. Where else can you debate with hedge fund managers, world leaders and CEO's? There's nothing quite like it. So if we continue to post here, the algorithm will connect most of us. If you want my attention, feel free to tag me or others more frequently on posts and we can respond. It's very sad to see this community go, but I think the same spirit of it will live on in various forms.

@orrdavid The hardware is not too commodity like. It too is going to improve tremendously. Dont trade your bear thesis - youre going to lose too much money. First learn about the technology

My AI bear case, really starting at point 4: 1. Lots of people and companies were still skeptical on AI in Q4 2025. Sentiment began changing a lot in Q1, 2026. They began to realize that AI really could do wonderful things for their business. Ken said this in some interview. I know several people personally who are saying this. One fund manager, who is strong at fundamental analysis, told me the same thing - a year ago he thought AI was stupid, today his jaw drops on the analysis it does. And company analysis is much more abstract and less rules based than most white collar jobs, like accounting and law. And AI is much stronger for rules based work. We just hit a new threshold of performance that really does threaten humans in almost all white collar jobs. 2. This new "high enough level of performance" suddenly increased AI demand. Compute rental prices skyrocketed. This in turn causes the hardware prices to skyrocket. Hyperscalers won big, so did hardware companies. 3. Companies are justified paying these high prices. The immediate economics are probably good, but even if not they can rightfully assume they will be looking out a few years. Wait, but isn't all of that a bullish thesis? Yes, but short term only! What happens from here? 4. The mass white collar replacement will only happen once. It's a single shock. 5. People are still terrible at using AI today. It's like the internet in the early 90s, a clusterfuck. Companies will get *WAY* better at actually using AI. They will increase efficiency, reduce lots of wasted compute. Right now they are building several competing, inefficient systems. Eventually they'll wind up with one wonderful system. Once set up, demand for compute drops. 6. Compute power is getting way stronger every year. Point being, in another couple of years companies will only even need the same amount of compute as they do today. Or maybe a bit more, but not that much. But the amount of compute available will double because the hardware is getting so much more powerful. And then in another couple of years it will double again. This is wonderful for the companies using AI. It is terrible for the companies making AI. It seems like a downright terrible business. 7. While some AI applications will use way more compute in the future, and long term I am optimistic on what AI does, the big one time wave is what's happening above. The one time wave is like 90% of the work AI will do over the next 5-10 years. Think of all the boring repetetive tasks that are going to be automated away. Even if AI creates a lot of new work over the same timeframe, which probably, it will be tiny compared to the knowledge work being destroyed. It seems a quite possible boom/bust cycle. The hardware is too commodity like and too much of it will be ordered. That's true even if AI will do amazing things looking out 20 years.

@AndersReiche Whats an example of something that could cause a rerate like that which isnt an earnings report

@fullyallocated_ It becomes less likely the closer the company is to it’s fair value. Not how mature it is, or how big the market cap is. I think it’s about 3.9x undervalued right now. Any macro or micro condition could cause it to rerate 100% up in a week in my opinion.

Can we just have a massive face-ripping rally already? Is that too much to ask? 🍋 $LMND

@AndersReiche Yep. But doesnt that become less likely the more mature a company becomes? Last few earnings the #s have been amazing but its dropped quite a bit.

@fullyallocated_ The stock has run up 40%+ on earnings multiple times…