Julian Ciccale

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Julian Ciccale

Julian Ciccale

@jciccale

Ex-founder. 20+ M&A deals. Public Market Investor

New York, USA Entrou em Ocak 2025
138 Seguindo6.7K Seguidores
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
I did not have time or willingness to post much these last few days. I tell you this: I bought multiple millions worth of $IREN shares. I wanted to increase my exposure after the $NVDA announcement on earnings. I almost hit buy at $60 but decided to hold. I added substantially at $54. No intention of timing the bottom, just wanted many more shares. I actually think this investment has derisked substantially the last couple of weeks: - Mirantis acquisition - NVDA partnership - NVDA AI contract - Funding at excellent rates - Sweetwater energisation I expect a major catalyst before summer. And even if my timing is off, I am extremely patient here. NFA
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Mike Alfred
Mike Alfred@mikealfred·
There is absolutely nothing on the planet that will instantly bring more joy, depth, and meaning to your life than having a son or daughter for the first time. The only thing that surprised me is how much more powerful the experience has been than I expected. Go make babies.
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
"We have only just begun this buildout. We are a few hundred billion dollars into it. Trillions of dollars of infrastructure still need to be built."
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
I suggest you listen (again?) to Jensen in his monologue to Sequoia. He explained his AI 5 layer cake concept to future investors: Layer 1) Energy Layer 2) Chips, silicon, Layer 3) Infrastructure (land, power, shell, capital, operations) Layer 4) Models Layer 5) Applications
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
Quick portfolio update below. No changes since the last month. Holding steady my boatload of $IREN shares. Small allocations are $BTC $PTRN $SIMO $SANM
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
Do you believe $SPCX $81 B war chest will allow them to leapfrog Anthropic/ OpenAI in the frontier model race?. I don't, look at META for example. What do you think?
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
What a match! Algeria was a tough beast! I was sweating with the 1-0; it seemed that at any time it'll flip. Guess what? The GOAT came to rescue! Let's go Messi!!!
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The Big Degen
The Big Degen@TheBigDegen·
$IREN SPONSORSHIP UPDATE ⚽️⚽️⚽️ To all the IREN bears and whiners sooking about all of IREN’s advertising and sponsorships, well check this out!! 👍👊⚽️😎😅
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Jim Liu
Jim Liu@jiahanjimliu·
Why is Jim’s Grammar So Bad? Some people have asked me why my grammar and spelling is so bad. My grammar and spelling is not that bad, it’s just that I mainly tweet while: 1. Waiting for Jenkins builds. 2. Waiting for AI coding agent. 3. Holding baby. I have mild ADHD so I scroll Twitter while multitasking these things. Surprisingly, I have more time to look at stocks after successful baby delivery last week since I am on PTO.
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The Big Degen
The Big Degen@TheBigDegen·
So FCKING EXCITED for the 2026 WORLD CUP!!! I have a sneaky feeling that Argentina will go back to back? 🤷‍♂️ Who do you think will win? #FIFAWorldCup ⚽️⚽️⚽️ x.com/FIFAWorldCup/s…
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
One of my holdings $PTRN has seen some selling pressure lately after a nice run. Pre IPO holder (Knox Lane) is selling: 8M share block last week, with 20M more shares still to come once their 90-day lockup lifts in Sept. Next few months I expect another block around Sept, plus a small steady drip from another early holder. That may drag price 5-10% on deal days (mostly couple of days repricings you can see coming), depending on other catalysts. Fundamentals have not changed. Still long David and $PTRN
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
Easy to understand framework from AWS on AI and competitive moats. Hard to do? AI is making these worthless as moats: • Workflow embeddedness • Software scale • Integration lock-in • Engineering complexity Hard to get? These remain largely untouchable: • Regulatory permission • Capital at scale • Physical infrastructure I know which side I’d rather own. That's why I express this view by being almost all in $IREN. Now we wait. Let management execute, let the assets compound, and shareholders will be rewarded.
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Julian Ciccale retweetou
Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
$IREN , from reflexive asset to compounder (why 2026/27 matters) A compounder is priced on cash flows and reinvestment returns. A reflexive asset is priced on liquidity, sentiment, and narrative. The market still treats $IREN as a reflexive asset. $IREN the business is changing faster than $IREN the stock. Today, $IREN still trades primarily on: • BTC direction • Liquidity conditions • Risk appetite • Narrative shifts (AI, power, miners) Not yet on: • Contracted AI cash flows • Normalized ROIC • Stable free cash flow A simple analyst look at the numbers below demonstrate this. That’s why $IREN dropped +50% without the thesis breaking. That’s reflexivity, not fundamentals. An already-understood compounder usually needs earnings impairment to fall that much. But here’s what is changing underneath. $IREN is vertically integrated: Power → infrastructure → compute This is the foundation of a real infrastructure business, not a trade. The transition is not binary. It’s a process, and markets always lag fundamentals. $IREN is moving from: “BTC miner with optionality” → “Power + AI infrastructure operator with diminishing BTC sensitivity” The key question is not what $IREN will become, but *when* the market starts pricing it differently. IMO, that will start to happen when cash flows dominate price discovery. The market still wants to see: • AI/HPC revenue > BTC revenue • Multi-year contracted compute that is being delivered • Cash flows from that compute • Declining BTC beta in drawdowns • Capex intensity stabilising • FCF durability through a BTC downturn 2026–2027 is the critical window. That’s when: • AI infra revenues scale • Contracts mature • Reflexivity fades • Volatility compresses • The valuation framework changes The market may sniff this transition faster than expected. Even if $IREN remains mostly transitional, partial recognition can drive outsized upside. You don’t need full compounder status for returns to be monumental. The next 24 months are about the conversion phase, while fundamentals improve faster than perception.
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Mind Investor
Mind Investor@mind1nvestor·
$IREN Let me be clear. This is not a $100 stock. The structure has developed, and the picture is considerably more bullish than that. Two phases down, three to go and the most powerful move in this trend is still ahead. This is closer to a $150 stock.
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
@edge_of_power I think the fight with the USG is the biggest issue here. See what Sacks just posted
David Sacks@DavidSacks

I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.

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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
@edge_of_power There must be something. Some battle we cannot see from outside. Can be chips, can be model availability. Otherwise Jassy would've picked up the phone and fix it with Dario directly. AI dominance is a big battle, we have seen nothing yet
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Edge Of Power
Edge Of Power@edge_of_power·
‼️‼️ The Trump administration’s decision to halt all foreign use of Anthropic’s most capable AI models was prompted by conversations between Amazon Chief Executive Andy Jassy and U.S. officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, people familiar with the matter said - WSJ $AMZN
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marco
marco@marco394925151·
@jciccale vellutata di patate e uovo con tartufo ?
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Julian Ciccale
Julian Ciccale@jciccale·
If you know what food is this, you're already ahead of the herd!
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