pat flaherty

@Brad_Setser That's the story on the demand side. On the supply side production has gone up, by a lot, in several locations in particular in the Americas. Canada, US, Venezuela, Brazil - I imagine there are more. So I think it's a story of both demand and supply.

China -- via its massive stockpile -- is the new central bank of oil, replacing Saudi Arabia ... Helped save the US and Europe from a much bigger oil shock

@iscel50 @ProfSteveKeen You've ignored 65% of what the article explained.

The strange thing about Hormuz is not just the disruption. It is how quickly a modern economy turns out to be sitting on a few narrow physical channels it cannot replace on demand. That is the real lesson here. Not abstraction. Not sentiment. Just how exposed the system is when the flow of basic inputs gets choked off. To dive in deeper, check out the comment section. #SteveKeen #Economics #SupplyChain #FoodSecurity #GlobalEconomy #OilCrisis

@anishmoonka It's much easier to do catch-up than to do something for the first time.

China just built its first gaming graphics card to take on Nvidia, and priced it at about $485. In real games, a three-year-old Nvidia card that costs $299 runs more than twice as fast. Sometimes nearly five times as fast. A graphics card is the chip that draws everything you see in a game, and the more frames it draws each second, the smoother things look. Independent testers this week ran China's new card, the Lisuan 7G100, against the usual names. In Cyberpunk 2077, it pushed 88 frames a second. That same three-year-old Nvidia card pushed 232. The gap got worse in a racing game, where the Nvidia card hit 228 and the Chinese one managed 48. Even a $249 Intel card runs these games faster. What the card gets right is real. China designed the whole thing itself, the chip and the blueprint behind it, instead of borrowing the design from an established chipmaker, and that took four to five years. It is also the first Chinese graphics card Microsoft has officially certified to run reliably on Windows, a bar only Nvidia, AMD, and Intel had cleared before. And it runs more than 100 modern games right out of the box without crashing, where earlier Chinese cards mostly choked. The catch is the price. At $485, you are paying brand-new-Nvidia money for a card that, at its best, matches a mid-priced Nvidia card from about five years ago. It also skips ray tracing, the trick that makes light and reflections look lifelike, until the next version arrives. Eleven months ago, the early version of this card ran like a graphics card from 2012. The one on sale now lands around 2021. The headline calls that a challenge to Nvidia. On the benchmarks, it looks more like a company that closed nine years of catch-up in eleven months.

@elonmusk In what way, did you learn more this time? Hadn't managed the flip before?

@3YearLetterman @Franklin_Graham @jamestalarico @BestOfClosets @bennyjohnson @biggreendildo1 3 successful mariages sounds like a contradiction in terms unless only one involved the person in question who I assume to be you. Or unless you're only measuring viable offspring - which would be too low a bar for me.

7 kids 3 successful marriages 1 traditional nuclear family If you hate that, I hate you

@etbadabimbim Actually, I'm pretty sure there's not just one correct view of China.

Youth unemployed concerns graduates, not working class people subject to automated posts. Actually the causality is backward since the robots have been deployed in the first place precisely because young people prefer gig work than working on the factory floor. I respect your experience but I've met so many people wrong about China even with many decades of experience.

China has approximately a decade of industrialmaxxing before a potential crash, due to demographics. ‘Potential’ because what are they going to invent during this extreme decade of technological exuberance? Maybe dexterous robots that can replace hundreds of millions of working-class people. Maybe.

@etbadabimbim Most obviously unemployment and in particular among young people. There of course, for young people, other factors such as expectations and so it's complicated. My knowledge of E Asia comes from engagement - academically, professionally and personally - since the early 1980s.

@menomnon This automation cannot compensate for the already declining population w especially hitting working people. I don't get why this small automation contribute to the ‘present problems,’ which are?

@mzjacobson As much as Trump wants to destroy renewables, the technologies and economics have become too good.

Crazy new Q1 U.S. data shows big jump in U.S. penetration of WindWaterSolar in 3 months From Q2-25 to Q1-26 SD met 126% of grid+BTM demand with WWS (v 124% in '25) MT met 112% (vs 102% in '25) WA met 88% (v 78% in '25) WY met 82% (v 77% in '25) .. TX met 37% (v 35.4% in '25) U.S. met 26.43% (v 25.7% in '25) Growth due to a combo of solar, hydro, wind U.S.-wide Q2-25 to Q1-26 10.71% wind 5.98% hydro 0.36% geo 7.08% utility PV 2.3% BTM PV web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jac…

@S_Surprenant Surprising name you have there.

Let me explain this for people who do not do research for a living. Research papers are not written like novels. They are structured from the start with the view that most people will selectively read its content based on their needs. Most will glance at the abstract to find out what are the question, method, main results. Others will go further and read specific sections in details. Almost no one will read the entire paper. There are use cases of citations that involve a low effort in reading. If you want to know if your results align with others, you don't need to understand the nuance of footnote 8 in the online appendix. You just read about the method, the data, and the key results. It's minutes, not hours. Another example is when you use a method that was introduced by a paper or a series of papers. You just need to know if the method is there. That takes seconds. Now, there are other use cases where you have to read all the fine prints. If you extend the analysis of paper, criticize it, or want to contrast your results to theirs, nuances are not optional. That can be measured in hours or even days. Most of the problems with citations that you will find are about the first situation, not the second. So, the situation isn't that people are not engaging deeply with imagined content they did not read. The situation is laziness or, sometimes, limited knowledge spread errors. For instance, a few people misinterpret a result and erroneously cite a paper for it. You then come across 10 people who claim that X found Y. You should spend a few minutes to go check that it is true, but some people do not and repeat the claim. The error can also enter later. A few people might say that X found Y, but a few rounds of telephone game later Y became Z because people loosely interpreted each other instead of going back to the source every time. Again, all of them should check directly, but not everyone does. A more excusable type of error involves the attribution of origin. No one knows the full set of all relevant papers on a topic, so it's possible to misattribute origin in good faith without being lazy. I gave an example of that recently with Jorda and local projections -- they date back to Dufour and Renault (1998), as far as I know. Now that you all the lay of the land, let's go back to what happened here. She lazily repported what others repported without double checking. We're very far from using the hallucinated references made up by a chat bot or from arguing with strawmen instead of other papers. I don't know about her field, but I have never caught anyone getting into a detailed response to papers they did not read in my field -- economics. If you believe otherwise you're a dumbass. Also, that would be amusingly hypocritical if you did not read as many papers as I did before making that bold claim. The errors that do slip through tend to be annoying, but ultimately inconsequential -- i.e., answers to important questions are unaffected.

@vladimir_vladar @BobBorsley @khodorkovsky_en Well one clear characteristic is that @vladimir_vladar is an anti-semite. Beyond that, one can probably assume Z.

@BobBorsley @khodorkovsky_en Truth is important not who I’m

"I am ashamed, but I gave up. Please forgive me." Those were the closing lines of a note left by Nina Litvinova, 80, before she stepped out of a window in Moscow. 🧵Read her story

@michaelxpettis That's only true if Beijing wants to remain within the current system as opposed to breaking it.

SCMP: "China needs a coordinated policy package of currency appreciation, tariff cuts and elevated labour benefits to rebalance its massive trade surplus, former Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan said. He described China’s 2025 record-breaking US$1.2 trillion merchandise trade surplus as “shocking”." #comments" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">scmp.com/economy/china-…

@elonmusk I doubt you did that because it looks cool - I assume there's a purpose to the black paint.

The all black paint on the base looks cool

@JeffBezos That's something wrong in your logic there. The top 1% pay 40% of the taxes not because of a progressive rate but because they earnings are so disproportionate - which is partly the result of tax breaks for the rich and corporations going back to Reagan. Bedtime for Bozos.

Yes, the United States has the most progressive tax system in the world. The top 1% pay 40% of taxes, the bottom 50% pay 3% of taxes. We can make it even more progressive by zeroing out taxes on the bottom half. It’s a small amount of the total tax revenue but very meaningful to people in this group.

@JEBistline We need HDVC lines running the length of the country.

Does new transmission actually move the needle on clean energy? Here's a month of California data before and after SunZia came online. Wind is up by a third, and gas down by a third. Judge for yourself.

@JEBistline @xiaowang1984 And so, why was this done?

@xiaowang1984 Glad you asked! Fun arrangement where SunZia’s wind farms are registered as CAISO resources. So from an EIA-930 perspective, this is CAISO generation as much as Tehachapi and Altamont are.

@Idahobound7 @3YearLetterman @realDonaldTrump Are you unaware that 3YL likes to poke fun at things? There are parts of the country - who can shade either red or blue - who haven't completely lost their sense of humor.

@3YearLetterman @realDonaldTrump You are an outright liar. An oath to the Constitution means loyalty to the foundational principles of the United States and the rule of law, not to any single individual or political party.

Horrible Congressman Thomas Massie put out an old Endorsement, from many years ago, of him by me long before I found out that he was the Worst Congressman in the History of our Country. I endorsed Ed Gallrein, a true American Patriot, which Massie knows full well, so the statement that he put out is fraudulent, just like HE is fraudulent. WITHDRAW YOUR FAKE STATEMENT, MASSIE, RIGHT NOW! President DONALD J. TRUMP

@major_crawley @VolodyaTretyak I interpret Putin's remark to the effect of "there are no borders" to mean he'd gladly extend his remit past the Slavic peoples. The real prize would be take all of Europe. I imagine that he and the Z crowd are big fans of the Yamnaya.

@menomnon @VolodyaTretyak But Russians have problems understanding that. Not just with Ukrainians but with other peoples they consider Russian/Slavic. It's worth looking at Russian definitions of Russian/Slavic - ethnic, geographical or historical as it suits them.

Girkin concludes that the Ukrainian authorities have brains, unlike the Russian leadership: “The increased capabilities of the enemy allow him to launch massive strikes every night, actually equaling us in the number of such strikes, and in some places even exceeding our capabilities in this regard. This is related again to the fact that the enemy over the course of two years has diligently implemented the adopted strategy to create a superiority in unmanned aerial vehicles and achieve parity in missile means with the Russian Federation. We had a strategy in the last two years to achieve a compromise, and we continue to pursue this same strategy now. Well, we will draw conclusions further. Unfortunately, if now the enemy has reached parity or even a slight superiority in his favor in some places, further his superiority will only grow. That means a correctly chosen strategy. And that means the presence, perhaps in enemy heads, of brains. Unfortunately, I cannot say the same about the heads of our leaders.”

@ebipere Yet it's sometimes finance that drives industries whether many today in China or, for example, railroads in the US in the 19th C. The relationship is more complicated than: one is downstream of the other.

It is real but it is derivative - that is the difference. I can have a claim on work or production or output I can also have a claim on that claim Another claim on that second claim Turtles all the way down What happens when the output does not show up. When I sum my financial balance sheets they are much larger than my real economy balance sheets Real yes - but derivative

The Pettis–Tooze divergence may actually be quite straightforward. Pettis is looking at the financial economy: debt, bad investment, suppressed consumption, and losses waiting to be recognised. Tooze is looking at the real economy: factories, batteries, EVs, solar panels, supply chains, and industrial capacity. They are connected - loosely-coupled - but they are not the same thing. In a fiat world, that distinction matters more because the tie between financial claims and real output is looser, more political, and more discretionary than it was under gold. A bubble in finance does not automatically destroy productive capacity. And productive capacity does not automatically validate every financial claim written against it. That is why both Pettis and Tooze may be right at the same time. Pettis sees the distortion in the claims. Tooze sees the strength in the capacity. The real question is how the state manages the gap between the two. Under gold, that gap had a harder edge. Bad claims could persist for a while, but they eventually ran into the convertibility constraint. Under fiat, adjustment can be deferred, socialised, refinanced, inflated away, repressed, or pushed through the fiscal state. That is the post-1971 world: the financial economy can lie for longer, the real economy can endure beneath the lie, and the state decides how violently the two are made to meet - and who bears the loss. Pettis: carnegieendowment.org/china-financia… Tooze: adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-44… #ElasticEconomics #FunctionalFinance #MalleableMonetarism