little grey mouse 🐭

a 900 page deep dive into the logics used in model theory. even the table of contents is epic in scope, i contented myself with just posting the list of contributors.

Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible. The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days. The FAO clock. April 3. The Food Price Index. The first global reading that captures post-Hormuz commodity prices across cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar. The 2022 peak was 159.7 in March 2022 after Ukraine. This reading will incorporate oil above $100, urea at $610, LNG halted, packaging repriced, and freight surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per container. The number that determines whether the UN declares a food emergency arrives in fifteen days. The pharmaceutical clock. India’s API inventory buffers are two to three months, measured from the war’s onset on February 28. Late May is the depletion window. Methanol at 87.7 percent Hormuz exposure feeds the solvent chain for paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin, and antibiotics. Once buffers deplete, the shortage becomes a patient access crisis for the 47 percent of US generics that originate in India. The China crude clock. FGE NexantECA confirmed China is drawing commercial reserves at up to one million barrels per day. The draw sustains refinery operations for four to six weeks from March 19. Mid-April to late April is the exhaustion window. After that, China faces three options: accelerate Russian pipeline imports, reroute at massive premium, or crack open the strategic petroleum reserve. The third option reprices every commodity on the planet. The helium clock. SK Hynix and Samsung hold two to three months of helium inventory. Late May to early June is the depletion window. South Korea imports 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Ras Laffan is offline. If helium buffers deplete before alternative supply arrives, semiconductor fabrication faces rationing. The AI hardware supply chain hits a physical wall measured in months, not quarters. The insurance clock. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before P&I clubs can reinstate war risk coverage. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance normalisation takes six to sixteen months based on the Red Sea precedent of 26 months and counting. The logistics system lags the financial relief rally by the longest duration of any clock in this crisis. Seven clocks. The shortest expires in twelve days. The longest runs for over a year. The planting window, the USDA report, the FAO index, the drug buffers, the Chinese crude draw, the helium inventory, and the insurance cycle are all counting down simultaneously. None of them pause for diplomacy. None of them respond to presidential directives. None of them read sealed packets. The calendar is the only actor in this war that has never lost a negotiation. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

the good news: the US has destroyed 100% of Iran's military capability. the bad news: the 0% that remains is playing havoc with the global economy.

that disconcerting feeling then you realize you got the lyrics to a favorite song wrong, and you're convinced your lyrics are so much better...

Update from Minnesota

i'm so dense, i just realized the advertising slogan "Every kiss begins with Kay" is a really bad pun.

When Anne Marie Boyle turned down MMA fighter Sean McInnes, he punched her in the face so hard that he broke her eyesocket, broke her cheekbone, knocked her unconscious, and left her with a life-altering brain injury. She now lives with constant pain and tremors. He was sentenced to 19 months. The British court system continues to demonstrate its disregard for the female victims of male violence. glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-n…

This is the funniest thing I’ve seen on the internet. Afroman had his house raided by Ohio Adam County deputies… who found absolutely nothing… broke his door, trashed his place, allegedly had $400 go missing… and then they refused to pay for the damages. So, like any reasonable rapper would do… He turned his home security footage into music videos, mocking them. And then, the deputies sued him for FOUR MILLION dollars… because they didn’t like being made fun of. And Afroman’s response? He dropped ANOTHER music video. In his own words: “Unconfidential informant lied to Police to get out of some trouble. Adam County Sherriff officers made a mistake by believing the lie. Raided my house, found nothing, refused to pay for the damages and filed a lawsuit against me, Afroman, for exercising my freedom of speech! This is me holding trial in one song. I hope you enjoy it.” They said his videos “ridiculed” them… so he decided to show them what that actually looks like. And the best part? A jury basically said… yeah… you don’t get to raid someone’s home, end up in their surveillance footage, and then cry because they used it to make fun of you.

First time in . . . 20 million years . . . .

Encyclopedia Britannica and Merriam Webster have just sued Sam Altmans OpenAI. These legendary publishers accuse OpenAI of stealing nearly 100000 copyrighted articles and dictionary entries to train ChatGPT. The AI now copies their content freely while crushing their website traffic and revenue that built centuries of real knowledge. This is not innovation or progress. This is blatant industrial scale theft from the guardians of human knowledge. Sam Altman preaches ethics and safety while building his empire on plagiarism and lies. The lawsuits are only getting started.

An 18-year-old Japanese classical guitarist, Haruna Miyagawa, performs Niccolò Paganini’s Caprice No. 24, a technically demanding violin piece arranged for guitar, highlighting its sequence of variations and arpeggios in a contemporary concert hall setting.

Found an AI perspective I’d never heard before from a teacher of teens. It’s a bit meandering but your three minutes will be well used.

AZ new reality - 100 degree temps wind down in November (if lucky) and they resume again in March. We now enjoy 9 months of extreme heat. Also, we are running out of water. DO NOT MOVE HERE!

@Jen22Colorado you're on my list of very good people.

I’ve gained a lot of new followers since I recorded this video a few weeks ago, the last time I was able to enter Kfarkela before it became an active war zone so I’m sharing it again so people can understand the breadth of the destruction of the southern villages in Lebanon. This is what ethnic cleansing looks like. Kfarkela and Markaba, occupied south Lebanon. The Israelis destroyed most of this after the ceasefire was implemented Cameraman: @aliezzedine7

@4quym yes. freecomputerbooks.com/books/model-th…

@mouse_math Do u have a link ?

a 900 page deep dive into the logics used in model theory. even the table of contents is epic in scope, i contented myself with just posting the list of contributors.

BREAKING: Chuck Norris has died at the age of 86, TMZ reports.

Nobody wants to read AI-generated books.

@SteppeShaman he must be a "throat singer".

"Ezir-Kara", a folk song from the Turkic Tuvan people describing a fast horse