Pedro Domingos

I've found the path to AGI: arxiv.org/abs/2510.12269

@Austen A new CEO can fix both.

Honestly Google sucks at marketing its AI products. Gemini and family are dramatically underhyped for how good the models are. Partially because they don’t have a charismatic leader, partially because they’re buried in 18 layers of confusingly named Google enterprise bloatware.

Scientists, journalists, judges: their job is to seek the truth, but they keep failing. Salesmen, lawyers, politicians: their job is to lie, and they keep succeeding.

Yudkowsky is the new Ehrlich.

Perhaps AGI is not imminent after all.

ACM continues its string of premature Turing Awards for technology that hasn’t succeeded yet.

AI moves so fast. Barely a month and he’s already been sidelined.

@NotTriggerAtAll Same. The founders of AI were crazy, and that’s why they made history.

@pmddomingos Where would you put Newell?

Geoff Hinton set out to figure out how the brain works and failed. Andrew Ng set out to build a complete robot and failed. Demis Hassabis set out to achieve AGI using deep RL and failed. Yet they all succeeded.

Yes. For one, “Bayesian inference” is not Bayesian. Every (frequentist) n-gram model uses Bayes’ theorem. For another, LLMs have high capacity and are trained to minimize cross-entropy, which is equivalent to maximizing likelihood, so it’s not surprising they produce accurate probabilities. Etc. Saying LLMs are Bayesian explains nothing and confuses a lot of innocent victims.

@pmddomingos @martin_casado @vishalmisra do you got a specific stance in this debate?(:

Conversation with @vishalmisra where he goes into detail of how LLMs are *exactly* Bayesian. He demonstrates this both empirically and formally. This is foundational work on the capabilities (and limitations) of LLMs. youtube.com/watch?v=zwDmKs…

Nadella paid $650 million to acquihire Mustafa Suleyman and 70 Inflection employees in March 2024. The job: make Copilot the AI product that justifies Microsoft’s infrastructure bet. Two years later, Suleyman no longer runs Copilot. The corporate framing is generous. “Freed up to focus on superintelligence.” The numbers tell a different story. Microsoft 365 has 450 million paid commercial seats. After two years on the market, during the largest AI hype cycle in history, Copilot converted 15 million of them. That’s 3.3%. At $30/user/month, those seats generate roughly $5.4 billion annually. Microsoft spent $37.5 billion on AI infrastructure in a single quarter. The competitive data is worse. Recon Analytics surveyed 150,000+ enterprise users in January 2026. Copilot’s paid subscriber share dropped from 18.8% to 11.5% in six months. Gemini passed it in November. The most damning finding: 70% of users initially preferred Copilot because it was already embedded in their Office apps. After trying ChatGPT and Gemini, 8% kept choosing it. That 70-to-8 drop is the number that explains this entire reorg. Microsoft has the greatest distribution advantage in enterprise software history, and 90% of users leave after trying the competition. So Nadella hands Copilot to Jacob Andreou, a former Snap executive. You bring in an eight-year consumer growth operator when the problem is adoption, not science. And Suleyman gets “superintelligence”: no shipped product, no revenue target, no quarterly earnings call where an analyst asks about the 3.3%. The $650 million acquihire just became the most expensive research fellowship in tech history.

@s_batzoglou Inductive inference does evidence => theory, and these days we even have guarantees for it in many cases.

Physics does abductive reasoning indeed. It is inconclusive, but I don't see a better way. You observe B, you assume A such that A ==> B, and then you ask what other C are such that A ==> C. Then, you experiment and confirm or deny C, thus gaining more evidence on A or rejecting A. That's falsifiable. Unless it is multiverse, eternal inflation etc, where it's probably not falsifiable and arguably BS.

Physics' Achilles heel is that it infers theory from evidence and theory => evidence, not evidence => theory.

If the paperclypse is coming, this is the Antichrist.

Hey Guterres, where's your condemnation of Iran's oil blockade?

An attention head is a differentiable multiplexer.

@Polymarket x.com/pmddomingos/st…

JUST IN: Meta announces they'll be shutting down the Metaverse, after pouring $80,000,000,000.00 into the project.

And you wonder why people no longer trust science.

@vishalmisra @martin_casado You’ve been assimilated :)

@pmddomingos @martin_casado I’m just a networking guy - not a member of the “Bayesians”

@s_batzoglou No, the problem is that physics does abductive reasoning, which is unsound and always inconclusive.

@pmddomingos You cannot do physics or any scientific discovery with deductive reasoning. So physics is doing it right

The inevitable has happened: Copilot no longer reports to Mustafa Suleyman. theinformation.com/briefings/micr…